The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo reached 8,728 confirmed cases and 4,205 deaths by October 6, 2026, as officials report slowing transmission in some provinces while warning of new cross-border spread and persistent hotspots.
Four months into the regional health emergency, the epidemic caused by the Bundibugyo Ebola virus continues to present a mixed epidemiological picture across the Democratic Republic of the Congo. While national aggregates suggest a deceleration in certain regions, public health authorities emphasize that broader trends mask severe localized surges. The World Health Organization and the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have cautioned against premature optimism, noting that active transmission persists across dozens of health zones.
Epidemic Slowdown in Ituri Offset by North Kivu Surges
Congolese Health Minister Samuel Kamba pointed to a gradual slowdown in transmission since mid-August, noting that daily infections fell from approximately 120 new cases down to nearly 80 according to government figures reported in September. Several health zones in Ituri, including Adja, Kambala, and Mahagi, went 41 days without recording a new case. As of October 6, 2026, the outbreak had recorded a total of 8,728 confirmed cases, 4,205 deaths, and 2,269 recoveries, resulting in a case fatality rate of 48.2 percent. Ituri remains the primary epicentre, accounting for 6,480 cases, or 74.3 percent of the total, and 2,989 deaths. Meanwhile, North Kivu recorded 1,755 cases and 1,013 deaths, holding the country’s highest case fatality rate at 57.7 percent. Overall, 1,066 patients remain hospitalised in isolation.
Despite these pockets of improvement, the epidemic has accelerated elsewhere. Ebola is spreading at an exponential
rate in North Kivu, particularly within the city of Butembo, which accounted for roughly 45 percent of all cases reported last week as detailed by the World Health Organization. South Ubangi became the seventh affected province following the detection of a case there, illustrating the ongoing risk of geographic spread driven by population movements. The contact follow-up rate stood at 80.4 percent on October 4, remaining below the targeted 85 percent benchmark.
“Trends at the national level do not reflect trends at the provincial or local level.”
Olivier le Polain, head of the WHO’s epidemiology and analysis unit, via RFI
Le Polain added that it’s too early to confidently say we have passed a peak
when asked if the outbreak had reached a turning point. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus noted during a media briefing that while overall transmission is declining, new hotspots continue to emerge near the border with South Sudan.
Cross-Border Transmission Confirmed in Kenya
Regional containment efforts faced a major test when Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Health announced the country’s first imported case on October 6, 2026. In response to the imported case, 28 contacts—including family members and healthcare workers—were identified and placed under quarantine. International health authorities, including the World Health Organization, maintain guidance advising against any travel or trade restrictions involving the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or Kenya.
International propagation of the virus has also touched Europe and North America through medical evacuations and traveler infections. In May 2026, an imported case involving a United States citizen led to medical evacuation to Germany, followed by a French Ministry of Health report of an imported case in France on June 24, 2026. On July 10, 2026, the US CDC reported that a United States citizen working for a humanitarian organization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo tested positive for the Bundibugyo virus and was evacuated to Germany on July 13. The United Kingdom Ministry of Health reported on July 21 that a UK resident who had been treating patients in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was evacuated and isolated in a London hospital. An additional imported case in Europe involved a Dutch healthcare worker who tested positive on October 1 and was medically evacuated to the Netherlands. Despite these events, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control modelling calculations indicate that the risk of importation into the European Union and European Economic Area from the outbreak area remains very low.
Vaccination Drives and Treatment Trials Amid Conflict
Immunization and therapeutic efforts are operating under severe logistical constraints driven by active conflict, insecurity, displacement, strikes by health workers, and intense population movements. As part of the response, vaccination campaigns in Ituri and North Kivu target approximately 20,000 frontline workers over a period of six to nine months under the direction of provincial authorities such as provincial governor Gaby Kasongo Mulumba. Frontline workers are prioritized to receive the Ervebo vaccine, which was effective in past outbreaks. While Ervebo is licensed for the Zaire Ebola virus strain, it is being utilized because the two viruses are related, though studies continue to determine whether it offers definitive protection against the Bundibugyo strain.
Clinical trials are also underway for experimental therapeutics and vaccine candidates targeting the Bundibugyo virus. The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that Phase Ib clinical trials of a vaccine candidate developed by the University of Oxford commenced in Uganda in October. Additional staffing remains a pressing need, with the World Health Organization estimating that another 5,000 health workers are required to adequately tackle the epidemic.
Surveillance gaps and operational challenges continue to hinder complete containment. The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that between 60 and 70 percent of recorded deaths continue to occur outside formal health facilities, pointing to underreporting and undetected community transmission. To address community distrust and curb transmission, medical teams are coordinating with local and religious leaders to implement safe and dignified burials that respect grieving families.
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