2024-01-12 08:12:57
Even in the biggest election year in history, the elections presidential of Taiwan They stand out as one of the ones that arouses the most interest. This Saturday, an important part of its almost 24 million inhabitants will go to the polls to determine the political future of the island, whose sovereignty it claims China. The growing military tension with its neighbor makes this quote seen by Beijingbut also by the Taiwanese opposition, as a dilemma “between peace and guerra“.
The January 13 elections face the current vice president Lai Ching-tecandidate of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and mayor of New Taipei, Hou You-ih, candidate of the Kuomingtang (KMT). The first is the favorite in the polls, partly due to the opposition’s inability to present a joint candidacy. The third in contention is Ko Wen-jeformer mayor of Taipeicapital of the island.
As usual, the long shadow of the Asian giant has monopolized every aspect of the electoral campaign. That reality can only be understood by searching the pages of history. The civil war that bled China during the first half of the 20th century ended in 1949 with the triumph of Mao Zedong and the Communist Party. Its military victory on the continent forced the overthrown Chinese nationalist government to retreat to Taiwan, a territory it controlled under a dictatorship that lasted until the late 1980s. This explains why, even today, the island’s official name remains the Republic. from China. In 1996, it held its first democratic elections.
Two paths before China
China has historically claimed sovereignty over the archipelago, a claim that has grown as its military power has grown. In his New Year message, the Chinese president Xi Jinping He assured that reunification “is inevitable.” The Taiwanese parties rule out that option, which displeases more than 80% of their citizens, but they do not talk about it either. independence, because that would arouse Chinese anger. They both want to maintain the ‘status quo’, but they choose different ways of how to do it.
The PDP, which has governed since 2016 hand in hand with the current president Tsai Ing-wen, has strengthened its political, commercial and military ties with the United States, an alliance with which they intend to deter the Asian giant. However, this belligerence has weakened the diplomatic relations of the island, which only 13 countries recognize. The party’s new candidate has committed to dialogue to achieve peace, but has warned that “without sovereignty (…) it is a false peace” and has promised military reinforcement of Taiwan. He has also opened the door to greater economic rapprochement with the European Union.
On the other hand, the KMT is committed to a more conciliatory position with Beijing with the aim of avoiding a hypothetical aggression. If it gains power, it could streamline trade, tourism and cultural exchanges with its neighbor. Ironically, this nationalist and fervently anti-communist party ruled mainland China until Mao’s victory.
Can they affect Spain?
Spain, like the vast majority of countries, does not officially recognize Taiwan. The election result will not change that position, which benefits the relationship Madrid with Beijing. However, a hypothetical conflict in the strait could affect the business relationships that he does maintain with the island. For Spain, Taiwan is the 40th supplier in imports and its 50th foreign market. For Taiwan, Spain is its 35th supplier and its 20th destination. exports. These economic ties favor the archipelago. In 2021, Spanish exports reached 697.6 million euros, while the volume of imports was 1,665.8 million. according to data of the Economic and Commercial Office of Spain in Taipei.
Although Taiwan and China continue to have strong trade ties, the war in Ukraine has shown that this does not guarantee that military aggression will not occur. That dreaded scenario could harm a Spain and to the rest of the world, since the island has a strategic position thanks to its dominance in the manufacture of semiconductors, essential for the global electronics market. If that sector were damaged “we would face a economic crisis similar to the disruptions we saw during the Great Depression,” warned Chris Miller, author of the book ‘The chip war‘.
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