2023-09-01 13:55:28
It was a week of inflation. According to local calculations, the inflation rate in Germany fell slightly in August to 6.1 percent, in the euro zone it remained at 5.3 percent. Economists and analysts had expected a decline.
Nevertheless, the stock exchange took it calmly. The German share index Dax jumped back above the 16,000 point mark at least in the meantime.
Stock market was not impressed
Why does the stockbroker no longer care about the scenario of a weakening economy with high inflation?
One could argue that it is at least unclear whether the latest inflation figures will encourage the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates further.
One could also argue that the DAX companies have long been much more interested in how inflation and monetary policy develop in America than in the euro area, because many of them earn a large part of their money on international markets.
It could also be argued that there are so many different factors that affect stock prices that one should never overestimate the importance of monthly inflation numbers.
The theory of the third wave
The analysts at Sutor Bank in Hamburg have now published a completely different theory. Her thesis: “Inflation today is not the same as it was a few months ago.”
Roughly simplified, they divide the inflation, which has been bothering many people in Germany for more than a year and a half, into three waves. In the beginning, it was the energy prices that caused higher inflation rates. That was the first wave.
Then companies and unions would have reacted, many follow-up prices and wages would have risen. That was the second wave of inflation. “Both the first and second rounds of inflation hit companies directly,” says Sutor Bank.
Currently there is a third wave of price increases. Both companies are involved that previously had to deal with the higher costs and are now passing on parts of them to customers. “But there are also a number of companies that have either already adjusted their prices because they have the power to do so, or are now simply riding the wave,” says Mathias Beil, Head of Private Banking at the bank: “This form of However, price increases lead to higher profits and thus better prospects.”
This theory is certainly not undisputed among economists. In any case, Sutor Bank thinks that the stock market sees it that way – and that is causing the prices to rise.
Christian Siedenbiedel Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 8 Christian Siedenbiedel Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 12 Christian Siedenbiedel Published/Updated: , Recommendations: 80
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