2024-09-22 02:47:27
Thirty-two Armenian prisoners of war, who have been suffering for a long time in Baku prisons, were finally released and returned to the arms of their happy families. I will analyze the background and circumstances of their release, pointing out why Armenia should have made a much better deal.
1) The 2020 agreement to end the war, signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, included a clause that mandated “the exchange of prisoners of war and other detainees and bodies of the dead.” Pashinyan’s mistake was that no deadline was set for the implementation of this provision, thereby allowing Azerbaijan to keep Armenian prisoners as long as it wanted.
2) Pashinyan’s second mistake was that immediately after the end of the 2020 war, Armenia released all the Azerbaijani prisoners, and Azerbaijan released only some of the Armenian prisoners. There was no all-for-all exchange.
3) Although the 2020 agreement did not set any preconditions for the release of Armenian and Azerbaijani prisoners, Pashinyan made his third mistake by handing over maps of Armenian mine sites in Artsakh seized by Azerbaijan to Azerbaijan in exchange for Azerbaijan’s release of several more Armenian prisoners. Aliyev learned an important lesson that he can extract more concessions from Armenia by slowly and gradually releasing Armenian prisoners. In other words, Aliyev found that Armenian prisoners were more valuable to him if he kept them in a prison in Baku, and from time to time released a few in exchange for additional concessions from Armenia.
4) Pashinyan’s persistent preoccupation with signing an unnecessary “Peace Treaty” with Azerbaijan provides another opportunity for Aliyev to extract additional concessions from Armenia, including new demands for Armenian territories during border settlement negotiations, the return of Azerbaijanis to their previously inhabited villages inside Armenia, and the so-called ” Acceptance of the “Zangezur Corridor” connecting East Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan, instead of the road under Armenian control, as indicated in the 2020 in the agreement.
5) Pashinyan should have refused all meetings and negotiations with Azerbaijan until the withdrawal of its armed forces from the occupied territories inside Armenia and the return of all Armenian prisoners of war.
6) Azerbaijan agreed to exchange two Azerbaijani soldiers for 32 Armenian prisoners of war as Armenia withdrew its candidacy and lifted its veto on Azerbaijan hosting the prestigious international climate change conference (COP29) in Baku next year. This is the only reason why Aliyev agreed to carry out such a disproportionate exchange of prisoners. None of the other publicly stated reasons are true. Contrary to baseless speculation, the US, EU, NATO, Russia, Turkey and Iran did not play any role in organizing this prisoner exchange. Aliyev was keen to use the conference as a way to showcase Baku as an important international capital to divert attention from Azerbaijan’s serious human rights violations and war crimes. Aliyev has made great efforts to hold other major events in Baku, such as the Formula 1 tournament, the summit of the United Nations Movement, the Eurovision Song Contest, the European Games, etc.
7) Considering Aliyev’s strong desire to hold the climate summit in Baku at any cost, Armenia should have sought the release of all Armenian prisoners of war, not just 32 of them. In addition, Pashinyan should have demanded the release of high-ranking officials of Artsakh captured and imprisoned by Azerbaijan at the end of September 2023.
8) At the same time, more than 100,000 exiled Artsakh Armenians are suffering in Armenia, deprived of the most basic needs: housing, food and medicine. Artsakh Armenians left all their property in Artsakh. The Armenian government should submit a lawsuit to the World Court, demanding that Azerbaijan pay compensation for the confiscated property of Artsakh Armenians.
9) The above-mentioned questions raise serious questions about the high praise given to Pashinyan by his supporters, who are proud that he achieved great success by releasing 32 Armenian prisoners. They do not know that a more skilled Armenian leader could have obtained much more concessions from Azerbaijan than the return of a few Armenian prisoners.
10) Pashinyan’s supporters are also delighted that various foreign leaders have expressed their satisfaction with the exchange of prisoners, hoping that it will lead to the two countries signing a “Peace Treaty”. Pashinyan’s supporters do not understand that the “Peace Agreement” will not actually bring peace to the two countries, because Aliyev has already violated most of the terms of the 2020 agreement. What assurances can anyone give that they will honor future arrangements? These foreign forces think only about one thing: their interests, not the national interests of Armenia. They are satisfied that Pashinyan repeatedly makes concessions to Azerbaijan so that the international community can benefit from Azerbaijan’s oil and gas, ignoring Armenian interests and turning a blind eye to Aliyev’s violations of the human rights of his own people.
Harut Sassounyan
Publisher of the California Courier newspaper