Will Israel and Iran follow the World War I expansion model?[김상운의 빽투더퓨처]

2024-04-22 14:47:25

[21] History of the Middle East War and World War I

“Iran’s direct attack on Israel is a ‘game changer’ that will shake up the landscape of the Middle East region.”
This is what Susan Mulroney, deputy director of the Brookings Institution, said in a recent interview with Bloomberg. There are concerns that Iran’s ‘shadow war’, which has hit Israel through armed groups around Israel such as Hamas and Hezbollah, may turn into a direct attack and escalate into a war in the Middle East.

Israel and Iran, which have begun retaliation and retaliation, have taken a breather, but as the attack pattern enters a new phase, there is an increased possibility that it will lead to an escalation of war at any time. A war in the Middle East, a key oil supplier, is bound to lead to a global economic crisis, so Korea cannot afford to just cross the river and ignore it.

Let’s look for clues to predict future developments by comparing and analyzing World War I, which is considered a representative model of escalation in world history, with the Israel-Iran armed conflict.

A tectonic shift in the ‘balance of power’

A missile launched by Iran over the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem is intercepted by Israeli air defenses on the 13th. X Capture

World War I is recorded as a war that none of the parties involved wanted, but it resulted in massive human casualties beyond imagination. In particular, this is an unprecedented case that started as a war between Austria and Serbia, but escalated into a world war in less than a week.

There are differing opinions on the cause of World War I, but the general view is that it broke out when the balance of power between Austria-Germany-Italy (Triple Alliance) and Britain-Russia-France (Triple Pact) broke down in the Balkan Peninsula. It all started with the rise of the German Empire after unification in 1871. The delicately maintained balance of power collapsed as the rise of Germany increased security threats from surrounding powers such as Britain, France, and Russia.

Of course, Bismarck’s exquisite diplomatic skills, which had isolated France by coaxing Austria and Russia, were neutralized when Wilhelm II came to power. This is because Wilhelm II’s expansionist diplomatic policy, which catered to the imperialistic aspirations of the German people, was inevitably seen as offensive by Britain, Russia, and France.

The recent Israel-Iran armed conflict can also be approached from the perspective that the balance of power between Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkmenistan, and UAE and Shia countries such as Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen has been broken. As the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel was promoted through the active mediation of U.S. President Joe Biden, the balance of power between the two hostile blocs in the Middle East collapsed. Iran believed that it would be cornered if Israel, which is an invincible enemy and a military powerhouse with the backing of the United States, joins Saudi Arabia.

In fact, the United States and Saudi Arabia supported the establishment of diplomatic relations between Sunni Arab countries and Israel in order to diplomatically isolate Iran. Accordingly, Israel established diplomatic relations with the UAE and Bahrain through the Abraham Accords in September 2020, and also established diplomatic relations with Sudan and Morocco. The collapse of the balance of power that triggered World War I is already underway in the Middle East, and the Israel-Iran armed conflict is likely to escalate into a war between Sunni and Shia countries.

Intervention of ethnic minority variables

Palestinian refugees wait in line for food in Rafah, Gaza Strip. AP Photo

The Austro-Serbian War, which opened the First World War, was a key variable in nationalism, which was highlighted by the two Balkan Wars that took place before it. The weakening of the Ottoman Empire created a power vacuum in the Balkans, and the Austrian Empire annexed Bosnia-Herzegovina, where Slavic people lived, which caused the problem. Serbia and Russia, which were Slavic countries, wanted to oust Austria, which supported Germany.

This Israel-Iran armed conflict is similar to the path of World War I in that it originated from Iran’s support for the Palestinian armed group Hamas. As seen in the Russia-Ukraine war, issues of territory and ethnicity remain highly volatile even in the 21st century and are a factor in intensifying conflict.

Moreover, the Israel-Iran armed conflict is bound to be more unstable in that it also involves a structure of religious conflict, such as Islamic anti-Semitism or Sunni-Shiite conflict.

Ambiguous attitude of the hegemony

In his war memoirs published after World War I, British Prime Minister Lloyd George (1863-1945) pointed out that the ambiguous attitude of Edward Gray, the foreign minister, was a factor in causing the war. It is said that Britain’s failure to clearly state its support for France and Belgium during the crisis phase of July 1914, when conflict between warring countries was gradually increasing, led to Germany’s misjudgment. This means that if Britain, which was the hegemon during World War I, had expressed its resolute intention to intervene, Germany would not have been able to go on the offensive. In fact, the movements of the United States, the hegemon, are an important variable in whether or not the war in the Middle East escalates. The reason Iran has so far been unable to directly attack Israel, which has been a thorn in its eye, and has waged a ‘shadow war’ is because it was intended to block US intervention.

However, the question is to what extent can the United States, which must prepare for a US-China war following the Russia-Ukraine war, intervene in the Middle East? President Biden was barely able to persuade the U.S. Congress to support the war effort in Ukraine. Not long ago, President Biden drew a line with Prime Minister Netanyahu, saying, “We cannot help attack Iran.” In the future, the United States’ defensive stance may stimulate Iranian military adventurism.

misinterpretation of signals

A trench on the Western Front where fierce fighting took place during World War I. The invention of the machine gun led to mass killings in trench warfare. Donga Ilbo DB

The military mobilization order implemented by Russia at the end of the crisis in July 1914 played a decisive role in the spread of World War I into a world war in less than a week. On July 25, 1914, the Russian emperor and military leaders issued a ‘preliminary mobilization order’ with the intention of demonstrating force against Germany, which greatly increased the threat perception of the Triple Alliance.

In fact, the very next day, Austria ordered mobilization and shelled the Serbian capital, Belgrade, two days later. As a result, Russia issued an order for partial mobilization the next day, July 29th, and Germany and France ordered general mobilization on August 1st, causing the situation to spiral out of control.

In fact, there are studies showing that the German leadership, including Emperor Wilhelm, did not accept the military’s argument to start a war before Russia’s military power grew, but changed their minds after hearing the news of Russia’s mobilization order.

In this way, in conflicts between countries, misinterpretation of signals has the potential to be a critical variable in escalation. It would be difficult to rule out the possibility that Israel and Iran’s repeated retaliatory attacks could lead to a misjudgment at some point and lead to an escalation of war.

domestic political pressure

Rockets fired by Hamas in the Gaza Strip toward Israel. AP=Newsis

During World War I, both Germany and Russia were under pressure from domestic expansionist public opinion based on nationalism. For example, when Germany signed the ‘Helgoland-Zanzibar’ treaty with Britain in 1890 and gave up its African colony (Zanzibar) to acquire the strategically important Helgoland (an island northwest of Hamburg), public opinion in favor of colonialism poured out. .

Currently, the Middle East is not free from domestic political pressure. If Iran, whose national policy is an anti-American Islamic revolution, ignores Israel’s retaliation, the legitimacy of its regime could be threatened. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is under pressure to step down, is also likely to lean toward hard-line views as a means to overcome his political crisis.

at last To summarize, ① the situation in which the balance of power surrounding hegemony in the Middle East was broken due to the promotion of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel; ② intervention surrounding minorities (Palestinians); ③ the limitations of the United States as a hegemon with several fronts ahead, such as the war in Ukraine and the conflict between the United States and China; ④ retaliation and retaliation. ⑤ We can see that domestic political pressure from Israel and Iran is similar to the process of the outbreak and escalation of World War I.

Fortunately, the military response of both Israel and Iran has currently entered a lull, but it seems necessary to keep a close eye on the situation in the future as it could lead to an escalation of war if these variables come together.

[참고 문헌]
-Park Geon-young 〈History of International Relations〉 (2020, Social Criticism Academy)
-Lee Nae-ju 〈Controversy over the causes of World War I: How far have we come since the Fisher controversy?〉 (2014, British Studies No. 32)
– Lee Jang-hoon, Hamas, the international political function behind the Israeli war (Monthly Joongang, November 17, 2023)

“All the answers are in history.” It is becoming more and more difficult to keep track of the online news that floods every second. If you look deeply into history, you can see a thread among successive news stories. A reporter who has covered the history field for many years in charge of cultural assets and academics analyzes news through historical facts and seeks insights about the future.

Reporter Kim Sang-woon [email protected]

2024-04-22 14:47:25