A major outbreak of cold air is preparing across Central Europe, and gradually Italy will join it too. Snow on the plains? There is doubt but also hope from the models. Let’s analyze the probability that we will also see snow falling in the city. Get ready, because there is always a surprise around the corner with snow!
Luca Lombroso 03/12/2024 13:20 6 minutes
Here we go again, snow concerns are once again spreading among whether enthusiasts, already at the end of November the first street lamp attacks took place in the plains and now In the last few days a notable outbreak of cold air has been predicted on the maps on central europe. It seems a cold air mass, partly of Arctic origin, could cross over to Italy next week along with a disturbance that could bring the white flakes back to low altitudes in the north and possibly in some lowland areas as well.
Even in the mountains, including the Alpssnow is eagerly anticipated because despite the recent snow opportunities, many ski areas did not receive enough snow so it was remedied with the impact artificial snow.This is what the maps say.
Synoptic evolution
To analyze the cold air rush we now rely primarily on two features, the jet stream trend and the probability maps.
Little is counted on the undulating jet stream in progress,although a light depression is forming,the disturbance is weak and in any case it is not snowing at low altitudes.
already on Saturday, however, a northern branch of the jet stream will head towards Italy, and on Sunday it will be a turn on a well-structured tank, powered by the polar jet stream.
A in favor of this peak, the strengthening of an anticyclone over the mid-Atlantic, extending to Greenland in longitude. Instead, a trough will develop between Scandinavia and Italy, with marked meridian thermal exchanges as we are hit by cold and even turbulent currents.
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Since that the passages of cold fronts, in the north, will be fast and the Alps will be almost devoid of Alpine foehnthere are some things to evaluate from the saturation trend, which may see partial retrogressions.The probability maps show that the probability of snow on the plains is low on average.
Snow on the Alpine border ridge on Wednesday and Thursday
In these early days of the forecast, no snowfall is expected in the plains and indeed the weather will be clear and changeable in many parts of Italy. we report some showers in Central Italy, mainly towards the middle-lower Adriaticthe phenomena in the Apennines are almost absent.
The only area with snowfall, the border with Switzerland and Austria, in these countries it will snow down to the valley floor but the the snow front will affect the border areas and places like Cervinia, Livigno and Brenner will turn white.
A cold face for the Immaculate Conception
An interesting little thing for you On Saturday, let’s call it a waiting day across Italy, and on Sunday the first cold front arrives in the northskip the northwest where the monsoon breaks in quickly with clear skies and cold air, and it brings rain mainly in the north-east, a little snow in the eastern Alps, crossed quickly but will see short and lively storms but little accumulation on the ground.
The cumulative snow from today to Monday December 9,according to ECMWF,some occasional snowfall may affect the Po Valley,heavy snowfall on the border ridge,fresh snow,which will come again,between the 8th and 9th,also in the central Apennines.
Temperatures drop especially in the mountains, freezing temperatures in the Alps falling to 600 m, on the Alps down to -15°C.
Snow on the plains? Be careful these days
constitution, the situation is very uncertain and in any case conditions do not seem to exist for widespread and heavy snowfall. However, there are steps to keep an eye on them, to create a weakening around the Tyrone Sea and to transfer other disturbance impulses, as well as return from the east.
ECMWF alternates maps where the north would be cold, but dry, with some snow occasions between Monday 9th and especially Tuesday 10th December. In these days the snow could look choreographed or a little more especially in Emilia romagna, sometimes in lower eastern Lombardy and Veneto.
However, that shoudl be emphasized not much hope, Ensembles based maps show the probability of snow at 5-20%. in the plains to the north.
As for the mountains, snowfall will be scarce in the Alps, while the central Apennines will still benefit from the configuration with flows from the east, while the northern one will have little influence.
How does the jet stream influence snowfall predictions in urban versus mountainous areas?
interview Between Time.news Editor and Weather Expert luca Lombroso
Editor: Welcome, Luca! With winter approaching, excitement is building as a significant cold air outbreak is predicted for Central Europe, and we might even see some snow in Italy. Can you tell us what factors are contributing to this cold air mass?
Luca Lombroso: Absolutely! We’re looking at a cold air mass,partly derived from Arctic regions,which is making its way towards Italy. The jet stream’s current configuration plays a crucial role here. It’s undulating, but a northern branch is expected to shift south towards Italy this weekend.
Editor: Interesting! So, would you say the jet stream is the primary driver behind this cold surge?
Luca Lombroso: Yes, certainly.The jet stream helps steer weather patterns, including cold air masses. it’s expected to form a well-structured depression over Italy, which could enhance the chances of snowfall, especially in the northern regions.
Editor: Speaking of snowfall, what can we expect in terms of accumulation, especially in urban areas versus mountainous regions?
Luca Lombroso: There’s a bit of uncertainty when it comes to urban areas, as snowfall in the plains is not always guaranteed. However, models indicate a significant opportunity for low-altitude snowfall in the north. And in the mountains, particularly the Alps, snowfall is eagerly awaited since many ski resorts have relied heavily on artificial snow due to previous shortfalls.
Editor: It sounds like ski enthusiasts will have something to cheer about! But for those living in the cities, is there a reliable way to predict how much snow they might actually see?
Luca Lombroso: Forecasting snow in urban areas can indeed be tricky. We’re analyzing probability maps, which show potential snowfall amounts, but as we certainly know, weather can be unpredictable. There’s always a chance for surprises, especially when it comes to snow.
Editor: You mentioned earlier that we’ve already seen early winter signs as early as November. Can you elaborate on what was observed during that period?
Luca Lombroso: Sure! There were indeed some unusual early winter signs, with snow being spotted earlier than usual. People were buzzing about street lamp snowfalls, which might seem insignificant, but it’s a hint of the winter season’s potential ambition.
Editor: It seems like the weather is keeping everyone on their toes! As we prepare for the cold, are there any final thoughts you’d like to share with our readers?
Luca Lombroso: Just to keep an eye on the forecast! Winter often comes with surprises, and while we hope for lovely snowfall, it’s essential to stay prepared for the cold weather safety tips as well. So bundle up and enjoy the magic of winter when it arrives!
Editor: Thank you, Luca! It’s always a pleasure to have your insights.We appreciate you sharing your expertise!
Luca Lombroso: Thank you! It’s my pleasure to help people understand what’s going on in our skies. Stay warm out there!