2024-05-12 20:56:27
Since the creation of the European Union (EU), the role of the European Parliament has changed significantly, from an assembly of appointed members to a directly elected parliament. It is now one of the main actors on the EU’s political agenda, dealing with issues that fall within the bloc’s competence.
In this regard, the European Parliament elections at the beginning of June are particularly important, setting the EU’s agenda not only for the next five years, but also much later, because it is now that the political project of tomorrow’s Europe must be formed.
According to a March poll on the expected composition of the European Parliament, two right-wing factions in the European Assembly are likely to gain significant strength after the next elections in June: the Identity and Democracy Group, an alliance of far-right nationalist parties that includes Italy’s League party, France’s “National Unification” and Germany’s AfD; and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group – which consists mainly of MEPs from Poland’s Law and Justice, Italy’s Brothers of Italy and several Dutch parties. The Identity and Democracy Group would bring together 81 MEPs, up from 59 currently. This would be its most significant increase and would mean a near equal position with the Let’s Renew Europe group of the liberal and center parties. At the same time, the conservative reformist group would probably win about 76 seats, ahead of the Greens/European Free Alliance group, which is predicted to have 55 seats. This means that the political axis of the Parliament would shift even more to the right.
This could affect the European People’s Party, which has been the largest group in the European Parliament for 25 years. It is a center-right group made up of Christian Democrats and liberal conservatives – the German Christian Democratic (CDU) and Christian Social (CSU) unions, the Polish Civic Platform and Peasant Party, the Spanish People’s Party, the French Republicans, the Austrian People’s Party, and the like. Among the Lithuanian MEPs, this group currently includes conservatives Andrius Kubilius, Rasa Juknevičienė, Liudas Mažylis and Aušra Seibutytė, elected with the public committee “Aušra Maldeikienės train”.
According to Dave Sinadert, professor of political science at the University of Brussels, the European People’s Party has already turned sharply to the right at the end of this term.
“We have seen the European People’s Party move to the right in its positions on many issues, especially on immigration, but also partly on nature and climate. So, it can be said that the influence of the radical right in European politics is already there by changing the position of this party,” he says.
This shift to the right has already had consequences for current legislation, one of the most dramatic being the backlash against the so-called Nature Restoration Act. The draft law, which was aimed at by 2030 to restore at least 20 percent of degraded sea and land areas was strongly opposed by the European People’s Party and far-right groups. The European Parliament only adopted this proposal in February, in an extremely stormy vote.
One of the fiercest critics of the “convergence” of the People’s Party and the extreme right is Sophia in ‘t Veld, a member of the European Parliament from the Netherlands. She condemns Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s shift towards the right wing since the start of the campaign.
“The European People’s Party, which has always been a stable partner of the grand coalition, a stable partner of the large majority, under the leadership of Manfred Weber, has moved more and more to the right. We even see Ursula von der Leyen, who is the candidate of this party, moving further to the right: she is withdrawing from the Green Deal; it has a fairly radical right-wing policy when it comes to migration; she didn’t adhere very strongly to the rule of law because she didn’t want to offend some of the People’s Party governments,” she says.
Indeed, the European Commission has recently been criticized for ignoring sensitive rule of law issues to avoid confrontation with conservative governments.
The EPP’s tendency to ally with far-right factions for individual votes may become more frequent and visible in the next term, either through a structural coalition or a temporary alliance on specific issues.
How far it will go, how far these alliances will be repeated and institutionalized – it all depends on the EPP, says MEP int’t Veld.
“How the majority in the European Parliament will be formed does not depend so much on the extremists.” Today we already have them, there are two quite radical extremist groups. It depends a lot on the European People’s Party. So, I think this party will have to answer where they stand, which side of history they want to be on,” she assures.
While the EPP is widely expected to shift to the right, Dave Sinadert believes that for the time being it will prefer to work as it does now with its traditional coalition partners in the centre, the majority of which are the European People’s Party, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats and the liberals Let’s Renew Europe .
“The radical right probably won’t have enough votes to really block European decision-making; The European People’s Party will undoubtedly still need to form a majority and will probably also be able to achieve a majority with other traditional factions in the European Parliament,” says the professor.
However, given the likely scenario of a move to the right, the two remaining groups – the centre-left Socialists and Democrats and the Let’s Renew Europe liberals – are likely to try to push back.
In the confirmation vote in 2019 and throughout the term, with a few reservations, all three coalition groups supported the outgoing European Commission.
The next Commission may have problems if the base of the coalition is not expanded, says Green MEP Daniel Freund.
“If you look at the current polls across the European Union, it is likely that the current majority of conservatives, social democrats and liberals will not have a stable majority in the coming mandate. So the question is: where will the additional votes for a potential second term for von der Leyen come from? Is it the green ones? Or do they go to the right, to Fratelli d’Italia or other far-right, nationalist parties? I want a pro-European democratic majority in the European Parliament,” says the MEP.
He notes that his group abstained from voting in 2019, but would be ready to work with the current majority groups to support the next president of the European Commission. But support would also mean conditions.
“As the Greens, we are ready to join the coalition. In fact, we were ready to join the coalition five years ago, but no one wanted us. Obviously, if we join the coalition, we want to be part of the debate. What policies; which positions will have to be held by which factions? This will be negotiated after the elections. I guess that for now everyone will fight to get as many votes and as many members in the European Parliament as possible for their group. And then after the elections, we will negotiate what we will do with those majorities”, said the EP representative of the Green faction.
Even if far-right and nationalist parties get a lot of support in the elections, it may not be enough to radically change the direction of the European Parliament, summarizes the Euranet Plus editorial.
The European People’s Party will remain the largest party, as it has been since 1999, but it will undoubtedly become more right-wing, tipping the balance of power in parliament to the right. Due to such an imbalance towards the extremes, the European Parliament can be more divided, more polarized.
2024-05-12 20:56:27