The Ukrainian authorities have been reporting for a week the growing difficulties of their troops facing the Russian army in the Donbass. The situation is critical in the “salient” of Sievierodonetsk and Lyssytchansk, the last Ukrainian strongholds in the Luhansk region. Attacked from all sides, these two important cities are now threatened with encirclement.
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Fighting has been going on on the outskirts of Sievierodonetsk since Russian troops reached the town on May 27. “Our forces are in a difficult defensive situation,” acknowledged Saturday Oleksandr Striouk, head of the city administration. The humanitarian situation is particularly harsh for the tens of thousands of civilians who are still in this town, which had 100,000 inhabitants before the war. The bombardments damaged 90% of the city’s buildings. They also prevent the supply of soldiers from Ukrainian positions further west.
Objective: “Create a new Mariupol”
In addition to the incessant strikes on the supply routes linking them to the rest of the Ukrainian army, Sievierodonetsk and Lyssytchansk risk being cut off from the world by the advance of the Russian forces, which are trying to close a pincer movement to the west of these strongholds. “That’s their main goal now: to create a new Mariupol,” says Oleksiy Arestovych, military adviser to the Ukrainian presidency, referring to the way Russian troops surrounded Ukrainian soldiers in this large industrial city by the Sea of Azov.
If this maneuver were to succeed, “nine Ukrainian brigades and regiments, or about a sixth of the Ukrainian ground task force, would thus be trapped” in Sievierodonetsk and Lyssytchansk, commented on May 28 Colonel Michel Goya on his blog. Three options would then present themselves to the Ukrainians: to carry out a counter-offensive possibly “very expensive” to break the encirclement; let the encircled troops defend themselves, at the risk of losing them; or organize their retreat, solution “the most realistic militarily”, according to the expert. Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Ukrainian military administration of the Luhansk region, no longer excludes this possibility.
Towards a battle of several months
In a note published on May 28, the Institute for the Study of War, a US military think tank, said the loss of the two cities would be a tactical defeat for Ukraine, and a symbolic victory for Russia, which has made the “liberation” of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions its stated objective. He doubted, however, that the capture of Sievierodonetsk and Lysytchansk offered a substantial strategic advantage to the Russian forces. Whatever the outcome of the offensive on Sievierodonetsk, analysts agree that the battle for Donbass will last for many more months.
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Heavy artillery is one of the keys to supremacy in this fierce war of attrition. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who will speak at the European Council on 30 and 31 May in Brussels, does not miss an opportunity to recall the importance of Western support in this regard. “I hope for good news for the week ahead,” he said on Saturday. The Biden administration is reportedly preparing to approve the shipment of new weapons systems, including powerful multiple rocket launchers requested for several days by Ukraine.