2023-12-12 12:01:56
Collage: obozrevatel.com
Alexander Lukashenko has been traveling around the world for two weeks now. In recent days, I made a trip to Africa, visited Equatorial Guinea and Kenya. And these foreign policy visits are looking increasingly surprising.
Moreover, Alexander Lukashenko returned from Beijing, Malabo and Nairobi not to his homeland, but to the Emirates, which in recent years have become something like his next informal residence.
Lukashenko’s recent numerous foreign visits are determined by a number of features. He went abroad on November 29, when at the head of a large delegation (50 people) he flew to the United Arab Emirates for the International Climate Forum. This trip lasted from November 29 to December 2. But, as one can assume from official information, there was one working day, December 1, when Lukashenko managed to meet with the leaders of 16 states (!) and speak at the plenary session of the forum.
However, suddenly on December 3-4 he interrupts his visit to the Emirates and urgently flies to Beijing. After negotiations in China, Lukashenko disappeared from official screens for several days. For some reason, state media hid his whereabouts.
Lukashenko was found on December 8th. It turns out that during this time he returned to the Emirates. And on this day I met with the President of the UAE, Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed al-Nahyan. By the way, Lukashenko made his foreign visits in a similar way at the beginning of the year.
On January 25, 2023, he flew to the UAE and remained there until January 30. Then I flew straight from there to Zimbabwe. And immediately after that he returned to the UAE, where on February 2 he met with the President of the Emirates. The status of both the first and second follow-up visits was not reported. Either this is a vacation trip or a work visit. But Lukashenko has the privilege of not reporting to anyone.
It is worth paying attention to this feature. Lukashenko arrived in the Emirates with a delegation of 50 people. However, Alexander Lukashenko, Viktor Lukashenko and Nikolai Lukashenko took part in the negotiations with the President of the UAE from the Belarusian side. Neither the foreign minister nor other officials were there. “Home, family format,” is how the Emirati side defined the course of negotiations.
It is interesting to emphasize that the last meeting of the leaders of Belarus and the UAE (February 2, 2023) was accompanied by the following statement from Lukashenko’s press service:
“It is especially important to note the fact that the eldest and youngest sons of the President of Belarus took part in the meeting; this also indicates the special nature of the relationship, truly friendly.”
Thus, these are not negotiations between the leadership of Belarus and the UAE, but negotiations between the family of Alexander Lukashenko and the family of Sheikh Muhammad bin Zayed al-Nahyan. In this regard, we can assume that it is hardly by chance that Lukashenko’s eldest son, Viktor, who now does not hold any government position, regularly travels to the Emirates on some delicate mission. Family interests began to be separated from state interests even formally.
Lukashenko flies to the Emirates almost every year. However, the economic results of these visits are not visible. Trade turnover between Belarus and the Emirates is small. In 2021, it amounted to $80 million. Moreover, trade is practically not growing. Then why go?
The head of the People’s Anti-Crisis Management, Pavel Latushko, who until 2020 had access to high offices, is sure that Lukashenko is hiding his money in the Emirates. If we assume that this is true, then the “family” format of negotiations becomes clear.
It is worth mentioning that Alexander Lukashenko’s youngest son Nikolai attended negotiations not only with the leader of the Emirates, but also at his father’s working dinner with Xi Jinping. As a full member of the Belarusian delegation. What this means is not yet clear, but the trend is obvious. Does the father consistently involve the heir in big politics?
It is also important to note the extreme secrecy surrounding Lukashenko’s recent foreign visits. None of them were announced in advance. There was talk about a planned trip to Equatorial Guinea, but without reference to a date. For example, it was announced that Lukashenko would visit African countries. But which ones specifically were not reported. It’s not clear why this is hidden.
Regarding the visit to Equatorial Guinea. The intensity of development of bilateral ties, which suddenly started from scratch, is surprising. On September 6–8, 2023, the President of Equatorial Guinea Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasoga made an official visit to Belarus. And in November, the capital of this country, Malaba, was visited by a Belarusian delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergei Oleynik. On December 1, Lukashenko and Mbasoga met in Dubai. And here is the visit of the Belarusian leader to Equatorial Guinea.
Meanwhile, there is little connecting the countries. Economic relations are insignificant. The countries are not represented by embassies: they are just planning to open them. In normal practice, leaders do not travel to a country where there is no embassy. Since this is a sign that there are no prospects for cooperation with such a state. Unless Lukashenko might be interested in the political experience of Equatorial Guinea. The local president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, has ruled the country for 44 years. And his son Theodore Obiang is the first vice president.
If the visit to Equatorial Guinea was more or less prepared, then the flight to Kenya seemed completely spontaneous. It is no coincidence that the local president, William Ruto, during a meeting with Lukashenko emphasized: “This is an unofficial visit.” Indeed, it lasted only three hours. Before this, the countries’ economic interest in each other was negligible. Trade turnover between Belarus and Kenya in 2021 amounted to $10.5 million.
In general, the trade exchange between Belarus and all African countries in 2022 amounted to $500 million, and the export of domestic goods in this direction amounted to a little more than $200 million. In general, the African market over the past year (2022) gave only half a percent to Belarusian exports.
By and large, cooperation with African countries will not help the Belarusian economy. And Belarus has little to offer them. Especially now, when the import of Western technologies and components is under sanctions. In addition, there is a problem of low volume and solvency of the market in these countries. It is no coincidence that the share of the so-called “far arc” states does not grow even after trade with the EU and Ukraine collapsed (with the exception of China).
But Lukashenko wanted it to be that way. And no one is able to object to him. Although officials and ministers are skeptical about this project. This year in September, at a meeting on the development of trade with African countries, Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko drew attention to the decline in Belarusian exports to the region and the lack of new profitable projects. As the head of the government stated, good relations with the leadership of some countries of the continent, as well as political contacts at the highest level, have not yet yielded concrete results in the form of new and successful trade and economic projects. This can be understood as a subtle jab at Lukashenko.
Moreover, the head of government even reported a negative trend in Belarus’ trade with African countries. In 2019, exports to Africa amounted to more than $400 million, and in 2022 they fell to just over $200 million. It is difficult to expect that Lukashenko’s current visit will be able to break this trend.
Meanwhile, Lukashenko returned not to Minsk, but again to the Emirates. It appears that this is now one of his informal residences.
“You can sympathize with the mustachioed Marco Polo. At (almost) 70 years old, such throwing around the world is not easy.”
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