The (relative) political quiet period of the holidays is exactly the right time to observe some phenomena that the current election campaign has provided so far. The right-wing bloc is preparing for the decisive battle when apparently its situation is almost perfect.
Shaked denies retirement negotiations and attacks: “Smotrich has nothing to sell”
Bitan is still angry, Amsalem the breeze and Netanyahu decided to sting the justice system again
From the first day of the election, it seems that Benjamin Netanyahu took every possible step to avoid the traditional mistakes of the right on the way to power. No more divisions, small lists and illusory leaders whose main function is usually to burn thousands of votes of the right-wing voters.
Itamar Ben Gabir and Bezalel Smotrich will one day tell their grandchildren about the almost superhuman effort made by the Likud chairman to get them to sign the union between them, without drinking each other’s blood until the night of the handing over of the lists. The paradox that is a fact: the desired union between religious Zionism and Otzma Judith, for whom Netanyahu worked so hard, benefited Ben Gvir and Smotrich, increased the chances of the entire bloc, but equally added worries to Netanyahu and the members of his list.
About a year and a half ago, on the eve of the 24th Knesset elections, Netanyahu allowed himself to play the game of promises that change according to the direction of the political spirit.
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Even then he worked for the union between Smotrich and Ben Gvir and was ready to guarantee up to half the kingdom to the two difficult friends – just sign already and we will move on to the next task. But as soon as the political opponents from the opposite bloc launched a successful campaign “Elect Netanyahu – accept Ben Gabir as a senior minister in his government”, which Netanyahu did not hesitate for a moment and announced that “Ben Gabir will not be a minister in my government. Only a member of the coalition”.
The year is 2022, the elections are for the 25th Knesset, and Ben Gabir is the same Ben Gabir, who does not forget and only learns from experience. Both Netanyahu and Ben Gvir know very well that in the next Netanyahu government, if and when it is formed this winter, he will get his place around the government table, and that is the minimum price of Netanyahu’s victory.
Among the members of religious Zionism the plans are even bigger. When you ask them what ministerial ambitions they would like to realize, if and when, the variety of portfolios is absolutely impressive. “Law, treasury, education, transportation” – this is only a partial list. And this was long before the ultra-Orthodox started talking about their governmental plans.
All of this is known to the Likud chairman and certainly clouds the grand plan of returning to power. And no less important: all of this is known to the members of the Likud list, to the major Netanyahu loyalists and to those who identify with the disgruntled camp within the list. loss.
“I don’t know what Netanyahu is more afraid of: the possibility that he won’t reach 61, or rather the scenario of 61 or a little more” – a veteran and knowledgeable Likud member told me this week. “If he reaches 61, in Likud they won’t see the senior portfolios. Everyone will follow the honor of the Gush partners. The black caps and the knitted caps will get the cream, and we, after a year and a half in the opposition and after the tremendous effort in the elections, will be satisfied with the leftovers. The Minister of Water Affairs will still be considered a portfolio Worth”.
This mood prevailing in Likud towards the peak of the campaign does not exactly add motivation.
At least not for those among the members of the list whose resentment and anger towards Netanyahu did not dissipate but grew stronger after the primaries and against the background of the functioning of the election headquarters. The trendy phrase today is “the Likud in the trap”. The Likud members who were present at the party toast event that Netanyahu convened for the New Year, tell about several senior MKs who did not come, and their absence said a lot.
The Ben Yehuda incident
In the days of the last landing before the big battle, Likud members are preparing for two sets at the same time: the election battle for the victory of the bloc, and no less than that – for the next battle when each of them will fight for their individual future in the coalition. According to estimates in Netanyahu’s circle, the members of the “disgruntled camp” will cause a lot of headaches in any possible scenario. If the Likud succeeds in its mission, and Netanyahu is the one to launch the next government, each and every member of the list marked as “internal opposition” will carry out a brutal blackmail campaign.
Considering the ministerial appetite of the bloc partners, the options that will be available to Netanyahu after he distributes portfolios to the leaders of the other parties will be quite modest. “Perhaps Dodi Amsalem did not exactly mean only the legal case when he stated that this was his goal, but he certainly did not mean that at the end of the day he would leave Netanyahu’s office with the position of committee chairman or junior minister. I don’t see him sitting quietly in such a situation, if and when it happens,” claims a Likud official.
And this claim is certainly relevant to other Likud members as well, when each of them has quite a bit to say, even if for now they prefer to keep their mouths shut. Nevertheless, an election campaign is not the time to submit accounts. Everything will start in the phase that follows the publication of the results. Netanyahu prefers to arrive at this stage as prepared as possible.
The “defector plan” is one of Netanyahu’s main and classic options, while in the meantime only preparatory actions are being taken. Netanyahu’s people locate the least satisfied in the opponent’s camp, mark and add to the list of potential defectors. Did you get a place in the second ten in the state camp after you were considered a senior in Blue and White? Marked. Did you drop a few lines on the yesh atid list even though you were hoping for something else? Mark “V” next to your name. Have you ever been in Likud? We will talk after the elections.
Netanyahu is expected to implement the defector plan even if he wins the long-awaited 61 mandates. Not just to get a coalition a little wider than the minimum possible. He will try to bring in people from the outside, first and foremost to balance the Likud members even in the sensitive phase of the distribution of roles, as well as later when every vote will be critical. It is possible that what the Likud members saw from the opposition benches, the impossible tension of a narrow coalition in every vote in the plenum, will be their lot in case they win the elections and establish a right-wing government.
According to most estimates in both blocs, Netanyahu will not try to appeal to one of the leaders of the opposing bloc’s lists. Not in the first stage. It’s not that he doesn’t have many people to turn to in the so-called “only not Bibi” camp, but even to those who are somehow considered potential interlocutors, he won’t turn to before he implements the emergency plan that Likud has been talking about for months. The superseding clause and perhaps the French law in one form or another, changes in the legal system and perhaps additional actions.
All of the so-called “first step after returning to power” must be passed by a narrow, but safe, majority. “Then we can talk about mergers and expansions, but only later,” say optimistic sources among Likud members. Those who believe that this time it will work for them, and the return to power will materialize in one scenario or another.
And the possible scenarios for increasing the right-wing bloc to 61 mandates and preferably even more. As in the previous rounds of elections, this time too Netanyahu believes in the possibility of increasing the voting percentages in the right-wing districts. As in the previous times, this time too Netanyahu relies first of all on his personal charm, much more than on his level of trust in the people of the anonymous branches who are used to acting according to the outdated methods of the 1990s.
Instead of small budgets for the Likud branches to deal with hanging posters and talking to the neighbors, a huge budget was invested in the famous “Bibi Ba” project. Like it or not, Netanyahu believes in a combination of his personal appearances in front of the audience and the energies and methods of the “network stars”, the right-wing activists and famous Netanyahu fans to whom he has given the job of organizing the field activities.
The “Rami Ben Yehuda incident”, which received increased exposure this week, is only proof that Netanyahu believes in whom the territory has been entrusted to. Immediately after the publication of the video in which Ben Yehuda was recorded behaving violently towards the protestors of the opposing bloc, Likud rushed to announce his suspension from the campaign, but in the next step came counter versions and many interviews in which it was claimed that the video was edited and distorted the real situation: “They started, and Rami defended himself” – it was said To summarize the event.
Tag Brodney
Well, “Plan 61” started by the Likud is largely based on the attempt to significantly increase the percentage of votes on the right. The smaller section that appears somewhere in the margins of the program talks about a maximum reduction of the loss of votes. And here the story returns to the point from which the column began. The union between Smotrich and Ben Gvir is like the great forgiveness between the Lithuanians and the Hasidim. All of Netanyahu’s brilliant actions sorted out the bloc, but not completely.
The last and only remaining obstacle on the highway paved by Netanyahu on his way back from the opposition to the residence on Balfour Street is the Jewish Home party. Week after week, survey after survey, Ayelet Shaked continues to bring the same result: about 2%. A result that is not enough to stay on track and enter the next Knesset, but certainly enough to keep the Likud chairman from losing sleep. Netanyahu is not ready to buy Shaked’s argument that he must help her pass because, according to her, she is the missing piece that might complete the puzzle for Likud.
Ayelet Shaked (Photo: Flash 90)Netanyahu’s immediate circle is determined to eliminate the Jewish Home and appropriate the votes of Shaked and Yossi Brodani, at least at this stage. According to estimates, in the next two weeks the Likud will resort to the massive elimination operation in order to make Shaked retire against the background of the catastrophic situation in the polls, assuming that she survives and remains in that bewitched 2%.
If Shaked stays on her feet, in the next step they might switch from sticks to carrots and try to come to an agreement with her. It is true that today no one in Likud or on the right is conducting real negotiations with Shaked or her people, but at the level of possible ideas, it is assumed that there might be a point in offering her a shortened PAZM in a veteran Likud or a diplomatic position after the elections, in exchange for her withdrawal from the race.
Another idea that has gained momentum in recent days is that all the weight of pressure should be transferred from Shaked to its partner in the list, Brodney. I recommend that whoever recommends convince him to declare his retirement so as not to endanger the votes of the right. “Unlike Shaked, Brodny also has concrete plans for next year’s municipal elections. We may be able to act more effectively with him.”
No proposal, as mentioned, has matured, moreover, it has not been forwarded. Those around Shaked keep stressing that nothing will make her announce her retirement, and on November 1st she will appear at the polls in front of the cameras to dangle a note with the letter “B”. This may indeed be what will happen in the end. However, it is possible that in the last gospel, everything that seems absurd during the holidays, will immediately become a real option after them.