2024-01-11 06:22:18
Climate instability in the country led the National Supply Company (Conab) to revise downwards the estimate for the 2023/24 grain harvest. Brazilian production is now projected at 306.4 million tons, representing a drop of 13.5 million tons compared to the previous harvest (2022/23), which reached 319.9 million tons.
In the fourth survey released on the 10th, Conab highlighted the unfavorable weather conditions, characterized by scarce and poorly distributed rain, high temperatures in the central region of the country and heavy rainfall in the South. These factors have caused delays in planting and negatively impacted the productive potential of crops.
Soybeans, being the main crop grown in the country, are expected to register a production of 155.3 million tons, below the last estimate of 160.2 million tons, but still higher than the previous harvest (154.6 million tons). Conab justifies the reduction due to adverse weather conditions that affected the planting and development of crops.
Grain harvest
As for corn, total production is projected at 117.6 million tons, reflecting a reduction of 10.9% compared to the previous cycle. This is due to a smaller planted area and the deterioration of crop yield expectations, especially in the first harvest.
Rice has an estimated production of 10.8 million tons, an increase of 7.2% compared to the last harvest. However, late planting, excessive rainfall and other weather challenges have affected productivity. For beans, production should remain stable at 3.03 million tons, but Conab warns of negative changes in the first harvest due to climate instability.
In the case of cotton, an increase of 6.2% in the cultivated area is expected, with an estimated harvest of 3.1 million tons of lint. As for wheat, although it recorded a production of 8.1 million tons, adverse weather conditions from September onwards caused losses in productivity.
International trade
As for international trade, the reduction in soybean production could result in lower exports of the grain, while the approval of the increase in biodiesel to diesel indicates an increase in domestic demand for soybean oil. The expectation is for national rice consumption to be maintained, with an increase in exports, and a reduction in corn exports due to lower production and global supply.
For wheat, despite the good volume harvested, climate problems should lead to a need for additional imports. In the case of cotton, the improvement in the national economy should boost domestic consumption, but growing exports will reduce ending stocks.
(With Agência Brasil and Conab).
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