2026 Oscar Predictions: Early Frontrunners Emerge in Screenplay Categories
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A new set of predictions for the 2026 Academy Awards in the Adapted and Original Screenplay categories reveals a competitive landscape with several potential nominees taking shape.
Erik Anderson, founder and Editor-in-Chief of AwardsWatch, has released his October predictions for the 2026 Oscars, offering an early glimpse into the films generating buzz in the screenplay races. Anderson, a veteran awards forecaster with decades of experience, notes a dynamic field with potential for shifts as the awards season progresses.
Adapted Screenplay: A Tight Race
The Adapted Screenplay category appears relatively stable, according to Anderson, though some potential contenders are beginning to emerge. Currently, the top ten predictions are:
- One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
- Hamnet (Focus Features)
- Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
- No Other Choice (NEON)
- Bugonia (Focus Features)
- Train Dreams (Netflix)
- Frankenstein (Netflix)
- New Wave (Netflix)
- Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Wicked For Good (Universal Pictures)
However, Anderson suggests a potential shakeup, noting that No Other Choice and Bugonia may be exploring similar thematic territory, potentially creating an opening for Train Dreams to gain traction.
Several other films are also in contention, including Die My Love (MUBI), Hedda (Amazon MGM), The History of Sound (MUBI), Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside Attractions), The Life of Chuck (NEON), The Smashing Machine (A24), and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (20th Century Studios).
Original Screenplay: A Shifting Landscape
The Original Screenplay predictions have seen more movement, with Anderson dropping Rental Family from the list and elevating The Testament of Ann Lee. The current top ten are:
- Sentimental Value (NEON)
- Sinners (Warner Bros)
- Marty Supreme (A24)
- It Was Just an Accident (NEON)
- Jay Kelly (Netflix)
- Weapons (Warner Bros/New Line)
- The Secret Agent (NEON)
- A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
- Is This Thing On? (Searchlight Pictures)
- The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)
A key battle is expected for the fifth spot, with Weapons posing a strong challenge to Jay Kelly’s current position.
Other films vying for recognition include Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics), If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24), The Mastermind (MUBI), Materialists (A24), A Private Life (Sony Pictures Classics), Sorry, Baby (A24), and The Voice of Hind Rajab (TBD).
Anderson’s Expertise and Awards Season Outlook
Erik Anderson’s predictions are informed by his extensive experience in the awards circuit. He is a Rotten Tomatoes-approved critic and accredited by several prestigious film festivals, including Cannes, Telluride, and Toronto. Anderson’s commitment to inclusivity is also noteworthy, as he has actively worked to provide opportunities for underrepresented writers and critics within the industry.
As the awards season unfolds, these predictions will undoubtedly evolve, but Anderson’s early insights provide a valuable framework for understanding the current landscape and identifying the films to watch.
