For more than a century, Labour has been the dominant political force in Wales, winning every election since the creation of the Welsh Parliament in 1999 and every Westminster contest since 1922. But this time, after a historic run, the party is expected to lose control of the Senedd, the Welsh Parliament, marking a seismic shift in the country’s political landscape. Polls and projections suggest that Labour’s vote share will plummet to its lowest level in over a century, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK poised to emerge as the largest parties, reflecting deep voter dissatisfaction and a realignment of Welsh politics.
The 2026 Senedd election, held on May 7, has been described as the most consequential in Wales since devolution. For decades, Labour’s grip on power has been unassailable, but recent polling indicates that the party’s vote share could fall to around 12%, according to the final YouGov MRP projections, which would be its worst result since the Senedd was established. Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru is projected to become the largest party with 43 seats, followed closely by Reform UK with 34 seats, according to the same analysis. This would end Labour’s century-long streak of electoral dominance and force the party into opposition for the first time in modern Welsh history.
The reasons behind Labour’s expected collapse are complex. High levels of voter dissatisfaction with the Welsh Government and the UK Labour leadership have driven many traditional Labour supporters to either Plaid Cymru or Reform UK, with the latter making significant inroads in areas outside of Wales’s urban centers. Polling also shows that nearly two-thirds of Welsh voters are dissatisfied with the Welsh Government, and a similar proportion are unhappy with UK Labour leader Keir Starmer, suggesting a broader disenchantment with the political establishment.
Labour’s Century of Dominance Comes to an End
Labour’s unbroken streak of electoral success in Wales dates back to the early 20th century, but its modern dominance began with the creation of the National Assembly for Wales in 1999. Since then, the party has consistently won the majority of seats and formed the Welsh Government, shaping policies on health, education, and transport. This election, however, marks a potential turning point. The final YouGov MRP projections indicate that Labour’s vote share could drop by over 20 percentage points, with the party losing significant ground to both Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalist party, has capitalized on Labour’s struggles, particularly in rural and Welsh-speaking areas. The party’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, is the only Welsh political leader with a positive net satisfaction rating, according to Ipsos polling. Meanwhile, Reform UK, the newly formed right-wing party, has made unexpected gains, particularly in former Labour heartlands, where its message of economic reform and opposition to devolution has resonated with disaffected voters.
Historically, Labour’s support in Wales has been concentrated in urban areas, but this election has seen a shift. The Conservatives, while also expected to lose seats, are projected to fare better than Labour in some regions, while the Liberal Democrats remain a minor but consistent presence. The Greens, too, are expected to gain seats, reflecting a broader trend of voters seeking alternatives to the traditional parties.
What the Polls Say
Recent polling underscores the dramatic realignment underway. YouGov’s final MRP model, published in early May, shows:
- Plaid Cymru on course to be the largest party with 43 seats, ahead of Reform UK’s 34 seats.
- Labour projected to win just 12% of the vote, down from over 30% in previous elections.
- Reform UK and Plaid Cymru vying for second and third place, with the Conservatives expected to lose four seats.
An Ipsos Wales poll from late April also highlighted the volatility of the electorate, with half of voters still undecided and a significant portion open to changing their minds. The same poll found that 68% of Welsh voters are dissatisfied with Keir Starmer, and 64% are unhappy with the Welsh Government, suggesting that this election is as much about dissatisfaction with the status quo as This proves about support for any single party.
Who Will Form the Next Welsh Government?
The outcome of the election will likely result in a hung Senedd, with no single party holding a majority. This means that coalition negotiations will be critical in determining who forms the next Welsh Government. Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, as the two largest parties, will hold significant bargaining power, but the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats could also play a key role in shaping the next administration.
Plaid Cymru has indicated a preference for forming a government with the Liberal Democrats, while Reform UK has ruled out working with Labour. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have not ruled out any potential partners, though their reduced seat count may limit their options. The Greens, with a projected gain in seats, could also be a wildcard in these negotiations.
For Labour, the prospect of opposition is a stark departure from its long history of governance. The party’s collapse has left a leadership vacuum, and internal divisions may complicate its ability to recover in the short term. Some analysts have described the situation as an “existential” challenge for Welsh Labour, with the party facing the possibility of losing its identity as the dominant force in Welsh politics.
Why This Election Matters
The 2026 Senedd election is more than a transfer of power; it represents a fundamental shift in Welsh politics. For over a century, Labour’s dominance has shaped the country’s policies and identity. Its potential loss of power could lead to significant changes in areas such as health, education, and Welsh language promotion, all of which have been central to Labour’s agenda.
Plaid Cymru’s rise, in particular, could lead to a stronger push for Welsh independence or greater devolution, while Reform UK’s gains may result in a more conservative approach to economic and social policies. The election outcome will also have implications for the UK’s broader political landscape, as Wales’s shift could influence national debates on devolution and regional governance.
For voters, the election offers a rare opportunity to reshape the political establishment. The high levels of dissatisfaction with both the Welsh Government and UK Labour suggest that many are seeking change, whether through nationalist parties like Plaid Cymru or through new political movements like Reform UK.
What Happens Next?
The votes will be counted on Friday, May 9, with results expected to begin emerging in the early hours of the morning. The formal declaration of the new Senedd will take place in the days that follow, with the newly elected Members expected to gather for the first time between May 8 and 11. Coalition negotiations will then begin, with the aim of forming a new Welsh Government by the summer.
The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the future of Wales. The outcome of this election will not only shape the next term of the Senedd but could also redefine Welsh politics for decades to come.
As Wales prepares for this historic moment, the focus remains on the voters who will decide the future of their nation. Whether through Plaid Cymru, Reform UK, or another party, the message is clear: the era of Labour’s unbroken dominance in Wales is drawing to a close.
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