2023-05-10 09:01:31
“USA (USA) is paying for the war Ukraine and the European Union (EU) will pay for peace”. Broadly speaking, this is the scenario that will occur once the war ends, as the director of the Elcano Royal Institute of Spain, Charles Powell. The historian gave a conference in it Club de Encuentro Manuel Broseta de València and points out that the US “bears the weight of the military effort and when the hostilities of the war cease, we (the EU) will be responsible for economic reconstruction.” Of course, he qualifies, it should be a process that is carried out “with the start of negotiations to include the Ukraine in the EU” (not in NATO, “because that would get us all into another war with Russia”).
And why should it finance that reconstruction in parallel to a process of Ukraine’s accession to the EU? According to Powell, for two reasons: “to check the millions of euros that we will have to invest and do it in an accession process, as we have done before, and also because it is the only way to influencing the political reform process and regulations of Ukraine for the country to comply with the requirements to integrate into the union”. All this is not yet on the table because the war continues but “it will be very soon” and it will interest EU member countries, including Spain. “Although it is difficult to think about reconstruction when there is still a war, there are already international studies that point in that direction”.
40% of Ukraine devastated
The expert ensures that 40% of the country has been destroyed and when the reconstruction begins, Spanish companies (also Valencian ones) will be able to provide their services, especially in infrastructures and communications. “Homes, buildings, railways or airports.” Spain has invested 0.8% of GDP in humanitarian and military aid to Ukrainesomething that the country that governs Zelensky could be taken into account in a future project award process of reconstruction. “It has been an act of solidarity, but Ukraine also takes note, something that could be seen when it comes to granting jobs.”
Migration and return
After the departure of millions of people (especially women and children) from Ukraine because of the war after the invasion of Russia, there are approximately 9 million refugees in Europe. Spain hosts, as Powell points out, 170,000 people, 40,000 school children. “Spain occupies the fourth position in the ranking of welcoming countries, something that is a priori surprising due to the geographical distance between one country and another.”
In general, he points out, the migrant population from Ukraine will return to their country to join their husbands, brothers and fathers. “Perhaps some will want to come but I think that most of them will return when everything returns to normal and more so taking into account that the majority of refugees are in the neighboring country, Poland,” Powell reasons.
As Powell explains, Spain has had a “very robust” response to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Also the population. “There has been a lot of moral clarity in this war. People understood well who the aggressor was, which has made it easier for the country to act forcefully by sending lethal weapons to the war scene,” says the director of the Elcano Institute. In fact, as he explains, in one of the organization’s surveys, Spaniards were asked what was a threat to national security and Russia has risen in just one year from 5% to 55% of concern. “It is a historic change in the perception of a threat. The Spanish population has been very sensitive to the conflict.”
Counteroffensive, end of the war and geopolitical consequences
Nevertheless, and more than a year later, the war in Ukraine after the invasion by Putin and Russian troops continues. Many dead and completely destroyed cities later, the bullets continue to fall. At the present time of the development of the war, Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive that it has announced in advance. “It’s puzzling because the Russians have plenty of time to prepare.” In this sense, “some voices already suggest delaying this movement, the Czech minister has recommended patience to Ukraine, that they make sure they have all the resources and take it calmly.”
In this context, the question arises: What is the objective of this counteroffensive? “In a favorable scenario, it would be able to separate Russian forces and split them in two. Russian troops in Crimea would be isolated from Donbas to hinder Russian objectives and perhaps force them to think about a peace agreement.” However, Powell is not betting on a negotiation that ends in a peace agreement, but on a stabilization of the situation, a impassea situation of blockade of the war.
There is an event that can change this scenario, according to the historian, which is that Trump wins the November 2024 elections in the United States. “It could decide that it no longer wants to pay for the war in Ukraine, which would put the country in a weak position and force a negotiated exit. One possible outcome would be to recognize Crimea as Russian and Donbas fully Ukrainian,” he reasons.
The European “trilemma”
Y Where is the European Union? According to the specialist, the EU has a “trilemma“. First, establish your relationship with EE. “Every time we are more dependentsmore dependent than ever on the US and this is bad for both parties, bad for the Americans who want a strong EU and terrible for us because if we are not credible we will end up being irrelevant”. The war in Ukraine, says Powell, has slowed down the path towards the strategic autonomy of the EU.
Second, the relationship between the EU and China. “We don’t know how to react to the rise of China. The EU defines China as socio with climate change, as competitor in markets and how systemic rival. These are three very difficult things to reconcile simultaneously and we are still in this dilemma”. all rare earths, lithium and magnesium.” “We can’t go green if we decouple from China. We cannot decouple, but we have to reduce the risk, but how?That’s the big question, says Powell.
The third challenge refers, according to Powell, to the EU and the “global south”, “the emerging countries“. “There are many countries that do not want to take sides in conflicts like the one in Ukraine and Russia because they do not believe in the world order with these rules and the EU does not have a strategy against these emerging countries.” The danger is not being in these countries, according to the professor: “We must be in these regions because they are important and in Latin America they are part of our Western world. How to create alliances? “These societies want investment and debt relief as well as free trade agreements. Therefore, we have to develop new instruments. Preach less and listen more“concludes the expert.
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