2023-09-17 11:50:05
The cross : Nineteen months after the start of the Kremlin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine, are the Russians confident?
D. V. : The percentage of Russians believing that Russia is moving in the right direction now exceeds 65%. This is more than before the war, when this rate was around 50%. There had already been a resurgence in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the conflict in Donbass.
Today, polls reveal an increase in political and economic confidence in the Kremlin. Each conflict causes an increase in the power rating. We had already measured these increases during the months of escalation at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 which preceded the invasion of Ukraine.
Do the Russians support the continuation of the war?
D. V. : Yes, if the question remains general, 75% answer that we must continue to support our soldiers on the front. Certainly, less than the 85% at the start of the conflict, but it remains very high. On the other hand, if we ask the question of the choice between negotiating peace or continuing military operations, the results are more measured: more than half of those surveyed say they are in favor of talks even if, in the end, they support Vladimir Putin.
Among the supporters of the operation, between 20% and 35% are unconditional for the continuation of military operations; 45 to 50% support without asking questions and 25 to 30% remain more uncertain.
Are there big differences between Russians in big cities and others?
D. V. : In Moscow and other large cities, young people responded to us during the military mobilization last fall: “I owe nothing to the government; I decide my own fate. » In the provinces, many affirmed: “Mobilization and the front is our duty as citizens; the government knows what it is doing. »
Propaganda always produces a strong effect far from big cities. Nationally, 75% of Russians say they agree with the proposition that “The West wants to destroy and weaken Russia.” It is enormous !
Paradoxically, polls also confirm a distrust of propaganda: 40% say that television does not tell the truth. They recognize that we need to look at other sources of information. But in reality, few do. Many end up answering: we don’t believe television… but we can only watch and believe the official version because it is that of our government.
What will become of the ultranationalist opposition after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin?
D. V. :Evgeny Prigozhin was initially seen as a patriot, loyal to the Kremlin. By dint of tirades against the government, he has seduced the ultranationalists who criticize the Kremlin for its lack of firmness. The latter represent less than 10% of Russian society, a figure which was likely to increase with Prigozhin, an interesting and attractive figure for those surveyed.
Less dangerous for the regime, the patriots who want to occupy Ukraine as far as kyiv and refuse any cessation of fighting undoubtedly represent between 20 and 25% of Russians. Among them, supporters of President Vladimir Putin remain in the majority because, in their eyes, the president embodies the strong Russia that they love. They know that this conflict is their war and that there is no alternative.
Could this nationalist opposition grow?
D. V. : Yes, but, like any Russian opposition – whether nationalist, liberal or otherwise – it does not benefit from freedom of speech. Yevgeny Prigozhin could have benefited from it. Above all, he brought something new to the political landscape. In itself, this is attractive in a country lacking political renewal.
After Prigozhin, many Russians, without being opposed to the Kremlin, could be tempted by a new figure, whatever the person and their program. Against a backdrop of weariness and the need for new blood, the regime cannot afford to allow any competition.
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