The quantum computer is already worrying computer security experts

2024-01-25 19:42:23

The impulse of quantum technology is going to put the current ones on the ropes cryptographic keys. Despite the systems of double authentication (the typical message to the mobile phone to confirm access), the processing capacity of the quantum computers will be able to decrypt any current key with no high defense in sight. The experts in Informatic security They foresee a stormy transition, although they continue to send messages of calm in the face of the incipient stage of the matter. During the First Technological Conference of Notaries held this week, those moments of collective anxiety were experienced in the face of a future plagued by technical uncertainties and few legal certainties. Luis Jiménez Muñozdeputy director general of National Cryptological Center sent a reassuring but uncertified message: “There is still no quantum computer that can break current cryptographic encodings, but we must keep an eye on advances.“.

Notarial concern is a responsible outpost in a growing professional anguish. In the forum, the presentation of the deputy director general of the National Cryptological Center stood out, Luis Jiménez Muñoz, with an intimidating baptism when titled ‘Quantum computing and its impact on information security’: “There is still no quantum computer that can break the current cryptographic encodings, but we must be aware of future advances; although in my opinion it will take a while 50 or 100 years,” he said. Despite this conclusion, the truth is that if the quantum future revitalizes the famous Moore’s law by which processing capacity doubles in two years, development can accelerate.

Semiconductor forecast this 2024

The sector of chips, after a weak 2023, points towards a 2024 with good forecasts. According to SIA, the international industry association of the sectorthe outlook for 2024 “points to a vigorous rebound in the global semiconductor market, with projections indicating an increase of 13.1%, reaching a valuation of $588 billion. This growth is expected to be largely driven by the memory sector, which is on track to reach around $130 billion by 2024, representing an upward trend of more than 40% from the previous year.” According to industry forecasts, all markets are poised for continued expansion into 2024. The Americas and Asia Pacific, in particular, are expected to demonstrate significant double-digit growth year over year.

But the chip industrial landscape may unravel in the face of quantum disruption. The current industry is marked by a high business and geographic concentration. Only two companies, the Korean Samsung and the Taiwanese TSMC, are capable of producing three-nanometer chips (the most advanced). Asia in general wins by a landslide in chip manufacturing, although the US and Japan are struggling not to be left behind. Quantum disruption can quickly reorient the computer industry, despite the fact that a current chip plant requires investments of around $20 billion. Pedro Pintó, head of New Programs at Hispasat, presented at the notary conference the European project Caramuel, a secure distribution system for quantum keys via satellite: “We need to develop driving projects that encompass all the knowledge about quantum communications “The satellite system is a great complement to terrestrial infrastructure to expand the reach of quantum key distribution mechanisms,” he explained to gaping spectators.

In a world of increasing randomness that opens up the quantum worldthe transition and coexistence with silicon chips is not clear at the moment. Large industrial investments are still in the chip industry and this will logically continue for some years, unless the disruption remains in multiple hands and obsolescence becomes unstoppable.

Technological opportunity

Ulises ArranzMinister of Innovation and Quantum Technology of AMETIC considered that it is “a golden opportunity to activate the Spanish quantum ecosystem. It is imperative to promote training and create a national strategic plan.” Enric Hernández, director of Security and Innovation of the Notarial Technology Center, assured that notaries “are at the technological forefront” and that they are already researching quantum cryptography “with priority absolute”.

The dean of the Notarial College of Catalonia, José Alberto Marínclosed the meeting by recalling the notarial function in times of rupture and technological threat: “Our function is to provide legal security to citizens. We have guarded their data for many centuries, both physically and intellectually, and now, with the electronic protocol, this information It also requires the greatest computer security,” he said.