2024-04-04 10:59:28
Russia has been conducting a massive information campaign in the West since the invasion of Ukraine began. It seems to be working, experts warn.
At the beginning it should be very quick. When Kremlin troops invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, many Western experts agreed: Ukraine would only be able to defend itself for a few days, if at all. But things turned out differently.
The war in Ukraine has been raging for over two years now. Russia has not yet achieved any of its goals. However, Kiev’s troops rely on military aid from allies to defend their country, which has recently declined. In return, Russia’s army appears to be on the rise, slowly but steadily gaining ground again, especially in eastern Ukraine. According to military experts at the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the West’s indecision is also responsible for this.
“The West is a giant”
“Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West – and will likely lose – if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin,” authors Nataliya Bugayova, Frederick W. Kagan and Katerina Stepanenko write in a recent analysis. The experts are harsh on the West: “The West is a giant that sometimes behaves like a mouse when it comes to Russia.” The main reason for this is the Russian campaign to manipulate public opinion in Western countries.
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“The claim that the war cannot be won because of Russian dominance is a Russian information campaign,” the authors write. Moscow’s campaign provides a glimpse “into the Kremlin’s true strategy and its only real hope for success.” In order to be successful, Russia is trying to sideline the USA on the one hand and isolate Ukraine on the other.
In the USA, Republicans and Democrats have been arguing for months about continuing military aid to Ukraine. A $60 billion arms package is currently being blocked by Republicans in the House of Representatives. This is also because Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is vehemently opposed to further aid to Ukraine.
“Challenge that most societies cannot cope with”
“Vladimir Putin’s focus lies in his ability to influence the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine and Russia itself,” it continues. For him, it is much more important than waging war in Ukraine to impose his view of the world on the West and thus make decisions that favor the Kremlin’s goals.
Putin and Russian politicians close to him, such as Dmitri Medvedev, have already threatened to use nuclear weapons on several occasions. Putin most recently reiterated this in his State of the Nation address in February. The authors assess the actual use of nuclear weapons in response to possible strikes by Ukraine with conventional Western missiles as “unlikely.” According to the authors, false statements by the Kremlin chief that Russia would be threatened by Ukraine joining NATO, that Ukraine is not a legitimate state and that Russia could determine its “sphere of influence” are also caught in the minds of some people in the West.
From the experts’ point of view, the Kremlin is doing this cleverly: in the public debate it combines “real feelings and even some legitimate arguments” with Russia’s interests. Both the right and the left political spectrum would be addressed. This manipulation is now hitting the Western public “with full force”. “This is a challenge that most societies are not up to.”
The West is superior to Russia
Ukraine’s Western allies have enormous economic power behind them: the combined gross domestic product of all supporting states amounts to around 63 trillion US dollars. Russia alone could only counteract around 1.9 trillion US dollars. Iran and North Korea would still provide Moscow with material aid and China would support Russia politically. However, the West could prevail with decisive action, the authors believe.