2024-04-04 15:33:16
The Kharkiv region could soon become the focus of a Russian offensive. This is what insiders from the Kremlin report. Ukraine is preparing.
After his proclaimed victory in the sham elections for the Russian presidency, Vladimir Putin believes he is firmly in the saddle of power. And he has one goal clearly in mind: The Kremlin leader wants to win his war of aggression against Ukraine – whatever the cost.
However, even more than two years after the invasion began, what exactly a victory for Putin could be is not entirely clear. Does he want to annex the entire country or is Russia’s president content with the complete conquest of the illegally annexed regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk? A report by independent Russian media Meduza suggests that Putin could have two options for ending the war.
The medium relies on sources in the Kremlin who are divided on the question of Putin’s plans. One faction apparently assumes that the Russian president – emboldened by last year’s failed Ukrainian offensive and the lack of ammunition among Kiev’s troops – is now ready to “go all the way to victory, even to Kiev.” It is said that Putin would not shy away from renewed mobilization, a further switch to a war economy and an escalation with the West. “He sticks to his principles,” “Meduza” quotes the anonymous source.
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Is the conquest of Kharkiv enough for Putin?
Other Kremlin insiders assume that Putin has “more realistic goals”: The Kremlin leader could have set his sights on conquering the city of Kharkiv. If this succeeds, Putin would “gradually end” his war of aggression, reports Meduza. That would correspond to Putin’s statements in mid-March that he wanted to set up a “security zone” along the Russian-Ukrainian border. The conquest of Kharkiv would also be a “symbolic victory”: Before the Russian invasion, around 1.4 million people lived in the city, a large proportion of whom spoke Russian. Kharkiv is around 30 kilometers from the Russian border.
According to sources in the presidential administration, the second scenario is “very likely,” writes Meduza. However, it is not known whether an order has already been given for a large-scale offensive on the city of millions. This may also require a new wave of mobilization. The Russian President had already announced a partial mobilization in September 2022. Tens of thousands of Russians then left the country for fear of being drafted. Putin then refrained from further waves of mobilization and primarily relied on financial incentives to attract soldiers to the front line.
Russia may be missing 300,000 fresh soldiers
Apparently, even the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall concert hall near Moscow last Friday should have no influence on Putin’s plans, as “Meduza” reports. Rather, everything is already prepared for a new wave of mobilization. When it will be implemented is “just a question of the situation at the front,” it is said.
In addition, Putin’s approach to recruiting fresh forces for the front no longer seems to be working. The independent Russian media “Verstka” reports, citing an employee at a Moscow recruiting center, that the number of volunteers has fallen sharply. Up to September 2023, up to 600 men came to the office every day, since then the number has been decreasing – most recently only around 30 people a day. According to Verstka, this development can be observed nationwide.
“Verstka” also reports, citing sources in the Russian presidential administration, that in view of this and the possible plans for an offensive in the direction of Kharkiv, a wave of mobilization is imminent. There would be a lack of 300,000 men to attack the Ukrainian city. The mobilization is intended to free up experienced soldiers who have previously been deployed for border protection for the offensive. Instead, fresh personnel should be stationed on Russia’s southern border.