2024-04-16 02:35:49
Iran, carrying out such a strike, could have hoped for a greater effect of the attack, think tank experts say.
Although the strike did not have the desired result, the Iranians will learn a lesson and work to improve their ability to breach Israel‘s defenses, analysts say.
Iran’s “package” of missile and drone strikes is modeled on the tactics of Russia’s repeated attacks in Ukraine, according to ISW.
The strike had a much more limited effect than hoped, and this may be because the Iranians did not fully appreciate the advantage Israel has over Ukraine in repelling such strikes, the think tank concluded.
Iran carried out the strike with about 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. The drone launches came well before the ballistic missiles, most likely in the hope that they would reach Israel’s air defense “windows” around the same time as the drones and cruise missiles, according to ISW analysts.
Russia has repeatedly used this approach against Ukraine.
The purpose of such a strike package is to distract the slower drones and cruise missiles from air defenses, allowing ballistic missiles, which are much harder to shoot down, to reach their targets.
Iran, understandably, did not count heavily on drones and cruise missiles hitting targets, but had hoped that a much higher percentage of ballistic missiles would succeed, analysts say.
However, of the 120 ballistic missiles, only a small number managed to overcome Israeli air defenses and hit near army bases.
True, ISW believes that Iran will learn a lesson from the April 13 strike, which it will be able to use for much more successful strikes in the future. The strikes likely helped Iran identify the strengths and weaknesses of Israel’s air defense system. Iran could also share lessons learned from the strike with Russia.
Iran’s ability to overcome Israel’s air defense system with even a small number of large ballistic missiles raises serious concerns for Israel’s security.
Russia’s strikes on Ukraine show that even a small number of precision strikes on key energy and other infrastructure can have significant consequences.
Israel and its allies should not become complacent after this successful defense, says ISW.
2024-04-16 02:35:49