2024-10-05 16:39:13
A political consultant and special correspondent for the Kyiv Post described the possible end of Vladimir Putin’s government. Jason Jay Smart, who is considered persona non grata by the Kremlin, does not believe that the people in the streets will take care of the downfall of the current Russian president. He bets on the military, the intelligence services and above all the oligarchs.
The worst moment yet for the Russian president. Oligarch Prigozhin lost his coup attempt. Putin commented on his death coldly. | Video: Reuters
According to Smart, the oligarchs should thank Putin for their rise, for allowing them to steal public property with impunity. The Russian president has stayed in power for so long by pitting the rich against each other. “They are willing to fight each other. They would like to kill each other and take each other’s property. The only thing stopping them at the moment is him. He doesn’t want blood to flow in Moscow,” says Smart in a video he published in collaboration with Kyiv Post .
Putin always intervenes in a dispute in time and calms the situation down. “He is the arbiter of justice, which gives him the certainty that everyone needs him,” says Smart, but according to him, the Russian president is getting old for those around him. He turns 72 on Monday.
According to Smart, Russia is basically a mafia state and it is wrong to analyze it in the way we examine state actors in other countries. “It is a group of mafia criminals who are concerned with their own interests, their own enrichment and, above all, their own survival, which really holds the Kremlin together,” Smart thinks.
The correspondent of the Ukrainian daily develops the direction in which the powerful oligarchs are now thinking. According to him, they realize that when Putin is finished, someone who is their enemy will come to power and will want to eliminate them. And they don’t want to wait for that. “The wiser thing to do now is to make an alliance with the military or some influential intelligence service, or better with both, to make sure that you are able to take power in the country yourself,” Smart develops his idea.
If the seizure of power occurs, the most dangerous part for the coup plotters occurs because the actual claim to power is slim. “You are a usurper. You were not democratically elected, you simply killed your predecessor. So what will keep you in power?” Smart asks rhetorically, saying the key is being able to hold the capital with enough troops to fight for you.
“That’s why I think any oligarch who tries to overthrow Putin is very likely to pull troops out of Ukraine and very likely to call them to other places where they’re not really needed,” says Smart, adding that oligarchs are just part of Russia’s colonialism. They return to Moscow to protect the capital and maintain their own power.
The oligarchs are now frustrated with Putin, who seems to be more and more detached from his surroundings. “It’s becoming increasingly clear that he is incapable of waging a war in Ukraine, which will ultimately be one of the main reasons that those close to him will oust him,” Smart says.
When that will happen is not certain, he said, but the deteriorating financial situation in Russia is a very bad sign for the Putin regime. The key interest rate has increased from 8% to 19%, inflation could realistically exceed 30%, the bubble on the housing market is about to burst.
“It’s something that will cause a lot of tension and a lot of pain in Russia. So the end of Putin. We can’t be sure how it will happen, but I have very strong reason to believe that it will be sudden and the end of the war in Ukraine will not be something that takes weeks and months. It can be something that happens within hours,” concludes Jason Jay Smart.
Why is he allowing himself to do this now? The situation is becoming more and more dangerous for Putin, according to the historian (Full article with video here)
Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly humiliated the head of the SVR civilian intelligence, Sergei Naryshkin. | Video: Twitter / Christo Grozev