If confirmed, this scenario would plunge the country into a new period of political uncertainty, paving the way for other new configurations, given the particular context in which it takes place. Lockdown risks,exit doors,future of the budget… Overview of the main issues raised by the political crisis.
Is the Prime Minister obliged to resign if a motion of no confidence is adopted?
What will happen to the bills presented by the Barnier government?
If the government were toppled, all the texts currently under consideration would be instantly buried, believe several jurists interviewed by The world. Starting from the budget texts under discussion in Parliament, and the most emblematic of all, the finance bill (PLF) for 2025. “The government could only guarantee the handling of “current affairs””,assure Aurélien baudu,professor of public law at the University of Lille,and his colleague from the Paris-Cité University,Xavier Cabannes. “If the government falls it’s over, the texts fall, they are null and void” agrees Julien Boudon.
unlike his colleagues, Mathieu Carpentier, professor of public law at the University of Toulouse-Capitole, advance What “Nothing in our recent parliamentary history justifies the claim that the overthrow of the government makes its texts obsolete”. The only successful motion of censure, voted in October 1962 against the Pompidou government, was followed by the dissolution of the National Assembly “which made all pending texts obsolete”continues the lawyer. But today the situation is different,as the President of the Republic cannot call legislative elections at least before July 2025.
Is there a risk of a budget cut?
In case of censure by the government, the chances of Parliament approving a budget for 2025 would decrease, in fact the deadlines are too tight for a new project prepared by a future government to be examined by the National Assembly and the Senate before 31 December.
While the possibility that the state will not be able to incur expenses or collect revenue on January 1 is a technically possible scenario, the French legal system provides safeguards to avoid what would appear to be the American shutdown – which refers to the cessation of government activity due to the failure to reach agreement on the budget. This configuration has never occurred in the history of the Fifth Republic.
What realistic scenarios would allow the state to continue operating in 2025?
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This solution, however, would only be short-lived, especially in a context of ever-growing deficits. A number of budget lines would increase mechanically, such as the salaries of public employees. In the absence of an upward revision of the income tax scale to take account of inflation, “all French people would pay more taxes”the Budget Minister, Laurent Saint-Martin, also warned on Wednesday 27 November, on FranciaInter.
political uncertainty fuels investor distrust: it contributes to increasing the interest rates at which France borrows (already high) and can have repercussions on the stock market and the entire economy. The new government would therefore have every interest in presenting a new financial law for 2025 as soon as possible, which would replace this “automatic” budget onc adopted by Parliament.
In theory, the President of the Republic has the power to appoint the person of his choice to Matignon. He has no legal obligation to choose a member of the largest group in the National Assembly. Though, institutional logic does not allow them to prevail over the opinion of the majority of deputies, as a government that opposes them could be quickly overthrown by a motion of censure. The head of state should therefore choose a candidate who can obtain the support of the majority of deputies – or at least not arouse the rejection of the majority of them.
Nothing would stop Emmanuel macron from renominating Michel Barnier, even if the latter had just been censured by deputies.
What is the caretaker government?
If the situation were to stall, the appointment of a “technical” government could become a way out. This involves the appointment of ministers without partisan affiliation to manage current affairs and implement some consensual reforms, with case-by-case support from the different political blocs in the Assembly.
This configuration, which Italy has already experienced several times in times of crisis, has never been very long-lasting. Actually, it is indeed tough for such an executive to be maintained over time due to the lack of legitimacy at the polls. Above all, this hypothesis would soon clash with the difficulty of drawing up a new budget for 2025, while the different political groups were already struggling to find a consensus on the budget texts in recent weeks.
What is a government responsible for current affairs?
When a prime minister resigns, but his successor has not yet been appointed, he and his ministers remain in office temporarily to “manage current affairs”, that is, to ensure the continuity of the state, its services, and thus the essential services and daily functioning of the administrations placed under their responsibility. “A resigning minister is no longer truly a minister,but he is a minister,he cannot do anything,there are limits to his power”specified a World Benjamin Morel,professor of public law at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas,in july 2024.
A government in charge of managing current events cannot, in principle, adopt measures of a political nature: it cannot create new rights and duties for the population, adopt measures that are not already foreseen by existing and promulgated laws, nor make significant appointments . But it can issue decrees, circulars and ordinances implementing laws already approved.
No legal text specifically regulates what a resigning government can or cannot do. This is a customary principle of public law dating back to the Third republic, established in practice. but due to the lack of precedent,case law is scarce. “The border is difficult to establish, because it falls within the discretion of the Council of State », observed the constitutionalist Dominique Rousseau last summer.The Council of State has the power to challenge a decree if it believes that the measure exceeds the objective of maintaining the continuity of public services.
The powers of a resigning government, however, are not limited when the measures adopted are of an urgent nature. In the event of censure by his government, this emergency exception could allow the Barnier government to present, before the end of the year, a special bill that would authorize him to continue collecting existing taxes until the law is voted on finance of the year.
When could the next dissolution of the National Assembly take place?
The National Assembly elected in July 2024 should therefore remain in office until at least next summer. For public law professor Julien Boudon, “the new dissolution could take place, at best, only on 8 July 2025, one year after the second round of the last legislative elections” – which would mean getting the French to vote at the end of July or mid-August, in the midst of the summer holidays.
What are the key issues a caretaker government needs to address in a politically fragmented surroundings?
Ing to agree on key issues.
Given the complexities of the current political landscape,a caretaker government may be seen as a temporary solution. It might allow for the continuation of essential governmental functions and the management of pressing issues without the distractions of partisan bickering. However, the challenge will be maintaining stability and garnering support from various factions within the Assembly, which could prove to be tough in a politically fragmented environment.
As 2025 approaches, the urgency for a coherent financial strategy becomes paramount. The caretaker government would need to tackle significant budgetary challenges and seek to reassess public spending and revenue streams to prevent fiscal crises.Moreover, without a clear mandate from the electorate, any broad reforms could face pushback from various political entities, complicating the already intricate process of governance.
Ultimately, the outcome of this political crisis in France will heavily influence the direction of future policies and the economic landscape. The interconnectedness of political stability and financial health is critical, underscoring the importance of the government’s ability to lead effectively and earn the trust of both the public and investors. Without these elements, the prospects for a stable and prosperous France may remain precarious.