What Is Israel’s Iran Endgame?

2025-06-16 18:05:00

Netanyahu’s Call to arms Sparks Fears of Escalation

Israel’s offensive against Iran has escalated, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly appealing to Iranians to overthrow their government. The move has raised serious concerns about the conflict’s potential expansion adn its unpredictable consequences.

• Israel’s military campaign against Iran has broadened beyond its initial targets.
• Netanyahu called for Iranians to “unite around your flag” against the current regime.
• International experts are warning of potential unintended consequences, including a protracted conflict or the rise of a more radical Iranian government.

The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has issued a direct call to Iranians: “The time has come to unite around your flag and your historic legacy by standing up for your freedom,” he declared on Friday. This bold move comes after the initial wave of attacks between Israel and Iran, with Operation Rising Lion-the code name for Israel’s sweeping assault-targeting Iranian nuclear facilities and military leaders. Israel’s escalating conflict with Iran has entered a new phase with Netanyahu urging the Iranian people to rise up against their leaders.

from Military Strikes to Regime Change

Israel’s campaign has quickly expanded. Over the weekend, strikes hit Iranian energy facilities, including gas depots and an oil refinery, causing massive fires. israeli officials even hinted at assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, though this was reportedly vetoed by President donald Trump.

Did you know?-the term “regime change” gained prominence during the George W. Bush administration, notably in the led-up to the Iraq War. It refers to the policy of forcibly replacing a foreign government with another.

Israel has conducted air strikes and covert operations against Iran’s allies across the Middle East for the past two years, including Hezbollah in lebanon and Hamas in gaza. They’ve assassinated senior political leaders and killed thousands of fighters. Now, they’re pushing the envelope further.

Experts Weigh In on the risks

“The initial attack was so spectacularly triumphant that it’s hard not to raise your goals,” said General Kenneth (Frank) McKenzie, Jr., who led U.S. Central Command from 2019 to 2022. He warned that while Israel can degrade Iran’s nuclear program, entirely eliminating it is unlikely. ehud Barak,a former Israeli Prime Minister,estimated that Israel could only delay Iran’s nuclear program by a few weeks. Iran has dispersed its program, which it claims is for peaceful energy production, across the country.

Did you know? Iran’s primary nuclear facility is at Fordow, buried deep under the Zagros Mountains.

The Nuclear Threat and Potential Backlash

The Arms Control Association in Washington warned that Operation Rising Lion could backfire, “strengthening Tehran’s resolve to advance its sensitive nuclear activities and possibly proceed to weaponization.” Wendy Sherman, who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal, stated that eliminating Iran’s military leaders won’t stop the program. “The Supreme Leader will just replace them with their deputies, and then their deputies, and their deputies after that,” Sherman said.

Reader question:-Given the potential for escalation and the complex geopolitical landscape,what diplomatic solutions might de-escalate the conflict between Israel and Iran and prevent further violence?

Regime Change: A Realistic Goal?

danny Citrinowicz,the former head of Iran analysis for Israeli military intelligence,cautioned that Netanyahu’s government may be operating under the “illusion” of being able to topple the Islamic Republic. He questioned how Israel plans to end the war and preserve its achievements. In 2003, the U.S. launched Operation Iraqi Freedom, which ended up with unintended consequences. Sherman noted that Israel’s actions are “reminiscent of our shock and awe going into Iraq, when everyone thought we were so powerful. And then shock and awe became mired down.”

The Iranian Perspective

According to Nasser Hadian, a U.S.-educated political scientist who teaches in both the U.S. and Iran, about eighty percent of Iranians oppose the country’s hard-line leadership, but only a “very small number” would embrace Netanyahu’s call for regime change. The Israeli onslaught makes any “attempt to replace the government” less likely, at least for now. Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence officer, warned that the aftermath could be worse than the current regime. The more likely outcome, Panikoff argued, is a “Revolutionary Guard Corps-istan” that is even more radical.

Tehran’s Options and the Geopolitical Stakes

Ali Vaez, the Iran project director for the International Crisis Group, says that Tehran’s only “good strategy” is not to appear willing to back down. Iran has vast energy resources and controls the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global energy supplies. The price of U.S. crude jumped seven percent in the first twenty-four hours. Vaez said Tehran might potentially be hoping that international energy markets become even more rattled and that “Trump would blink first and get Israel to stop.”

A Hazardous Crossroads

The destruction and death toll continue to mount in both countries. In Iran, over two hundred people have died, and thousands more are injured. Israel has also been hit by retaliatory missile attacks, resulting in at least twenty deaths and hundreds of injuries. Iran pulled out of nuclear negotiations scheduled for the next day. The former President said, “Iran and Israel should make a deal, and will make a deal.”

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, charged that Israel is undermining attempts at diplomacy. Iran is willing to limit its nuclear program but wants to retain the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. the Trump Administration set a sixty-day limit for a new nuclear deal. Many Iranians now believe that the U.S. engaged in “coördinated deception” with Israel. Revolutionary regimes are inherently paranoid.

the International Response and Regional Instability

As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, the international community watches with growing unease. Netanyahu’s call for regime change and the broadening scope of military strikes have raised alarm bells in global capitals. Manny governments are concerned about the potential for a wider war, particularly given the volatile nature of the Middle East and the interconnectedness of global economies.

the United Nations has been largely ineffective, with both the United States and Russia wielding veto power, thus disabling any meaningful resolutions. European Union foreign policy chiefs have condemned the violence and called for de-escalation.china has urged restraint from all sides, and other international powers have issued similar statements. These calls for peace mask underlying divisions when it comes to taking concrete steps to end the conflict.

The Role of Proxy Conflicts

One critical factor complicating the situation is the network of proxy conflicts that both Iran and Israel have been embroiled in for years.Iran supports militant groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and various Shia militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Israel, in turn, has often engaged in covert operations against Iranian interests and allies in these very regions.

The escalation in the direct conflict between Israel and Iran increases the risk that these proxy wars will flare up. Hezbollah, already a formidable force, could significantly expand its attacks on Israel. Hamas, still reeling from previous conflicts, might also see an opening to launch strikes. The Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria could target U.S. and allied forces.

• Proxy Wars: The network of proxy conflicts further complicates the situation and increases the risk of wider regional conflict.
• Global Oil Supplies: Any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz or other key shipping lanes could have profound impacts on the global economy.
• Geopolitical Alliances: Varying global responses to the conflict reveal fault lines in existing alliances.

The Potential for Economic Fallout

The conflict’s economic ramifications are significant.Both Israel and Iran have meaningful economic strengths. Much of the world oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and any disruption there could send oil prices soaring, impacting global markets.Additional trade routes could be affected, and the ensuing unrest would likely disrupt shipping, trade, and investment.

How might the conflict affect global oil prices? A sustained disruption in the strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil supplies, could dramatically raise the cost of crude oil. What if international trade routes are blocked? Blocked shipping lanes and trade routes through violence would cause a ripple effect throughout global markets by increasing the costs of transporting goods.

What Happens Next?

The immediate future remains uncertain. The ongoing actions by Israel, including the support of a regime change, and any potential escalations by Iran’s proxies create a precarious situation. The international diplomatic efforts will be pivotal in preventing a full-scale war.

Preventing Further Escalation: Immediate Steps

Here are some measures that could help prevent the conflict from escalating further:

• diplomacy: Encourage direct and indirect dialog between Iran, Israel, and international mediators.
• De-escalation: All parties should pull back from provocative actions,rhetoric,and military moves.
• Regional Involvement: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other regional powers need to prevent the conflict from affecting their borders.
• Economic Deterrents: Impose targeted sanctions related to the conflict, focused on military materials, but avoid broad economic sanctions with wider impacts.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the root cause of the conflict? The conflict stems from decades of tensions between Israel and Iran, fueled by ideological differences, security concerns, and geopolitical competition, including the Iranian nuclear program.

Can the United States help de-escalate? The U.S.is well suited to attempt mediation efforts and must urge its allies to be involved and prevent further actions that may increase violence.

What are the risks of regime change in Iran? Regime change could lead to a period of instability, perhaps empowering even more radical elements while also causing a humanitarian crisis that affects global markets.

What is the role of the international community Collective statements, economic support, and diplomatic interventions.