Trump’s Gaza Plan Faces Critical Test: Disarmament or Return to War

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Trump’s Gaza Plan Faces Critical Test: Disarmament or Return to War

The future of Gaza hangs in the balance as the Trump administration pushes forward with the second phase of its peace plan, a complex undertaking hinging on the complete disarmament of Hamas and facing skepticism from key regional players. Endorsed by the UN Security Council in November, the plan aims to establish a technocratic Palestinian governing authority, deploy an international stabilization force, and facilitate the reconstruction of Gaza – but its success is inextricably linked to a single, daunting question: can the conditions that fueled years of conflict truly be dismantled?

A Divided Gaza: The “Green Zone” and “Red Zone”

Currently, Gaza is effectively bifurcated. Israel controls the “Green Zone,” encompassing roughly 53 percent of the territory, primarily in the east, while Hamas maintains control over the “Red Zone,” the remaining 47 percent largely situated in the western part of the Strip. While Hamas formally agreed in October to transfer administrative control to a Palestinian body of independent technocrats, significant doubts remain about whether the group will relinquish its arms and allow Gazans to forge a future outside its dominion. Achieving a lasting peace will require a unified Gaza, a goal that demands decisive action from multiple actors, led by the United States.

The Pressure Campaign: Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey

U.S. President Donald Trump is placing significant pressure on three key nations – Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey – to compel Hamas to disarm, warning that failure to do so could jeopardize their relationships with Washington. All three countries have endorsed Trump’s peace plan and hold considerable influence over Hamas’s finances, legitimacy, political standing, and internal cohesion. According to sources, these nations possess the collective power to pressure Hamas into decommissioning its weapons, publicly condemning the group for obstructing Gaza’s reconstruction, and threatening to revoke the privileges afforded to Hamas leaders operating within their borders.

A Pathway to Statehood – If Disarmament Holds

Should Hamas disarm, Trump’s peace plan, including a potential pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, could transition from aspirational to realistic. However, the prevailing sentiment is one of cautious optimism. A failure to disarm and reunify Gaza, conversely, paints a bleak picture: a partitioned territory with Gazans living under either Hamas’s control or Israeli occupation, or, at worst, a return to open warfare.

UN Authority and the Emerging Governance Structure

UN Security Council Resolution 2803 grants the Board of Peace exclusive authority over Gaza’s governance for the next two years, with a potential extension. The Board’s executive committee will collaborate closely with the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), comprised of 15 Palestinian technocrats, to manage day-to-day governance in both the Green and Red Zones. An International Stabilization Force (ISF) will support a recently trained Palestinian police force from Egypt and Jordan, assuming responsibility for law and order. The precise composition and mandate of the ISF remain under discussion.

The Crucial “Red Zone” and the Challenge of Security

The fate of phase two rests heavily on developments within the Hamas-controlled Red Zone, which is home to over 95 percent of Gaza’s population and most of its urban centers. The NCAG has pledged to bring stability and economic development to all of Gaza, but their mission will be severely hampered if they neglect the Red Zone and fail to establish their authority. Crucially, security in the Red Zone cannot be guaranteed without Hamas’s disarmament and the unimpeded operation of the ISF-backed Palestinian police force.

Disarmament as a Non-Negotiable Condition

Despite Hamas’s endorsement of Trump’s peace plan, the group has not explicitly committed to disarmament, deferring discussion of the issue to a future “comprehensive Palestinian national framework.” However, point 13 of Trump’s plan is unequivocal: “All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt.” Disarmament and demilitarization are therefore essential, and monitoring mechanisms will be implemented to ensure compliance.

A Fragile Coexistence?

While Hamas theoretically should not oppose Gaza’s redevelopment, the risk remains that the group will never fully relinquish control, leading to an uneasy cohabitation with the NCAG. History suggests that control of weapons often equates to control of outcomes.

Israel’s Hesitation and the Reconstruction Impasse

Israel has stated it will not withdraw from Gaza or permit reconstruction unless Hamas disarms, fearing that materials will be diverted to rebuild the group’s tunnel system. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have indicated they will not invest in reconstruction without a commitment to disarmament.

Conflicting Optimism and Doubts

Trump expressed optimism in January, stating, “it looks like they’re going to disarm,” with his envoy Steve Witkoff adding that Hamas “will because they have no choice.” U.S. officials claim Qatar and Turkey have conveyed to Washington that Hamas will begin decommissioning its weapons. However, Israeli officials remain skeptical, citing Hamas’s ideological rejection of Israel’s right to exist. A senior Hamas official, Moussa Abu Marzouk, recently affirmed that no agreement to disarm has been reached, stating that such a commitment “never happened.”

A Looming Deadline and the Threat of Military Action

Trump has warned Hamas that failure to disarm will have “horrible, horrible” consequences and has threatened to impose a deadline. Should Hamas fail to comply, Israel would receive a green light from Washington to take military action. While the U.S. and Israel agree on the necessity of disarming Hamas, they disagree on the approach, with Netanyahu doubting a peaceful resolution and Trump willing to test the proposition.

Leveraging Regional Influence

For Trump’s approach to succeed, sustained pressure from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey is crucial. Each nation has significant bilateral interests with the United States and has demonstrated a willingness to maintain good relations. Trump has even approved the inclusion of Qatar and Turkey in the Board of Peace’s executive committee, despite Netanyahu’s opposition. These countries possess the leverage to compel Hamas to disarm, including controlling access to Gaza, threatening the financial security of Hamas leaders, and denying them safe haven. They must also insist on the provision of tunnel maps for destruction.

A Phased Approach to Disarmament and Withdrawal

Israel will need to facilitate the operation of the NCAG and the entry of aid, including prefabricated housing and medical supplies. As Hamas demonstrates progress on disarmament, Israel must permit reconstruction to begin in the Red Zone and eventually withdraw its forces in accordance with Trump’s peace plan. This withdrawal will likely be staged, as a rapid pullout could be politically damaging to Netanyahu.

The Clock is Ticking

Israeli officials privately suggest March – six months after the cease-fire – as a decision point, indicating a limited timeframe for Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey to influence Hamas. If Trump hopes to solidify the cease-fire and transform it into a durable peace, he must apply sustained leverage on all parties involved. The coming weeks will determine whether diplomacy can dismantle Hamas’s control, avert another war, and catalyze a lasting transformation in Gaza. Ultimately, the success of this endeavor will dictate whether the Board of Peace can effectively address other conflicts around the globe.

Gaza: Peace Through Leverage | Strategies & Analysis