Hobart, Tasmania – A recent poll is signaling a shift in Tasmania’s political landscape, with the Liberal government’s lead over Labor narrowing to just six points, the tightest margin seen since last year’s state election. The surge in support for One Nation is a key factor in this tightening race, prompting analysis of its potential impact on the upcoming election and the strategies of the major parties. The poll, conducted by EMRS, reveals a complex interplay of voter preferences and raises questions about the future direction of Tasmanian politics.
The EMRS quarterly poll, released Monday, shows the Liberals at 29%, a five-point drop since November. Labor follows closely at 23%, whereas the Greens and independents each hold 15% of the vote, with other parties accounting for the remaining 3%. Pulse Tasmania reported on the findings, highlighting the significance of One Nation’s debut at 14% as a major disruptor.
One Nation’s Growing Influence
One Nation’s emergence as a significant force in Tasmanian politics is particularly noteworthy, especially when compared to its federal support. EMRS managing director Brad Stansfield noted that while the 14% state poll result is “impressive,” it remains ten points behind the party’s performance in concurrent federal polling. According to Pulse Tasmania, Stansfield emphasized that the Liberal primary vote of 29% is the lowest it has been since May of last year.
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that One Nation is now out-polling the Liberals in voting intentions, marking a “surprise” top federal issue. This suggests a broader trend of voter dissatisfaction and a willingness to consider alternatives to the traditional major parties.
Rockliff Maintains Lead as Preferred Premier
Despite the narrowing lead for the Liberals Premier Jeremy Rockliff maintains a comfortable position as preferred premier. The EMRS poll shows 40% of voters backing Rockliff, compared to 26% for Labor’s Josh Willie. Yet, a significant 31% of voters remain undecided, indicating a considerable degree of fluidity in the electorate. This uncertainty underscores the importance of the coming months as parties vie for the support of these swing voters.
Strategic Responses from Major Parties
The rise of One Nation is prompting strategic adjustments from both the Liberal and Labor parties. In South Australia, Premier Peter Malinauskas has directly addressed One Nation’s growing support, acknowledging the party is “clearly going through a moment” and emphasizing the importance of migration to the state. As analyzed by the ABC, this direct engagement suggests a shift towards tackling One Nation’s rise head-on, rather than ignoring it. The approach mirrors strategies used in previous elections against other minor parties, such as SA-Best in 2018.
The question of how to respond to One Nation – whether to directly attack its policies or attempt to marginalize it – is a key debate among strategists. Former ABC chief elections analyst Antony Green has highlighted this dilemma, noting that the parties must decide whether to engage directly or attempt to keep One Nation out of the campaign conversation. The outcome of this strategic decision could significantly influence the final results.
Tasmanian One Nation’s Organizational Growth
One Nation is actively building its organizational presence in Tasmania, with Lee Hanson, the party’s Tasmanian representative, indicating they are “days away” from lodging their application for state-level registration. The party has already established four branches across Tasmania’s five federal electorates, with a Braddon branch launch scheduled for next Saturday in Ulverstone. This rapid expansion demonstrates One Nation’s commitment to establishing a strong foothold in the state and contesting future elections.
The party’s growth is being closely monitored by the government, as Stansfield noted, recognizing the potential for One Nation to further influence the political landscape in the coming months. The success of One Nation in Tasmania will too be closely watched nationally as a test of the party’s broader appeal and its ability to translate federal gains into state-level success.
The evolving political dynamics in Tasmania, driven by One Nation’s rise and the narrowing gap between the Liberals and Labor, set the stage for a closely contested election. The coming months will be crucial as parties refine their strategies and vie for the support of voters in a rapidly changing political environment.
The next key date to watch is the lodging of One Nation’s application for state-level registration, which will formally establish the party’s presence on the Tasmanian political stage. Further polling data and candidate announcements will also provide valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of the election. Readers are encouraged to follow updates from reputable news sources and engage in informed discussions about the future of Tasmanian politics.
Related reading
