Kyiv – A leading analyst from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) warns that the war in Ukraine is likely to remain locked in a grinding stalemate without a significant political shift. The assessment, reported Tuesday, suggests both sides are entrenched in a war of attrition, with limited prospects for a decisive military breakthrough. This analysis comes as the conflict enters its fifth year, following Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022.
The IISS assessment points to a situation where incremental gains are achieved at a high cost, with neither Russia nor Ukraine possessing the capacity for a swift, game-changing offensive. This echoes reports from earlier this month, which detailed Russia’s slow but steady territorial gains throughout 2025, capturing approximately 4,300 square kilometers – roughly 1% of Ukraine’s total landmass, according to data from the OSINT DeepState project of The Kyiv Independent. The conflict, initially envisioned by the Kremlin as a rapid operation, has devolved into a protracted struggle marked by heavy losses on both sides.
Currently, Russia controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, including the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed in 2014. Fighting is particularly concentrated in the Donbas region, where Russian forces have gained control of nearly all of the Luhansk region and around 83% of the Donetsk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Russian forces similarly occupy significant portions of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in the south, as well as smaller areas in Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The situation underscores the challenges facing Ukraine as it seeks to repel the invasion and reclaim its territory.
The War of Attrition
The characterization of the conflict as a “war of attrition” highlights the brutal reality on the ground. Both sides are focused on depleting the other’s resources – manpower, equipment, and industrial capacity – in a bid to achieve a strategic advantage. This strategy, yet, comes at a tremendous human cost and prolongs the suffering of the Ukrainian population. The Gazzettino reports that the conflict has resulted in widespread death and destruction across Ukraine.
The slow pace of territorial changes, with front lines shifting by only a few kilometers at a time, demonstrates the defensive strength of Ukrainian forces and the difficulties Russia faces in sustaining a large-scale offensive. The Institute for the Study of War’s assessments consistently show a largely “frozen” front line, indicating a lack of significant breakthroughs by either side. This stalemate is further complicated by the ongoing supply of Western military aid to Ukraine, which helps to bolster its defenses and offset Russian advantages in firepower.
Political Solutions Remain Elusive
The IISS analyst’s warning about the need for a “political shift” underscores the limitations of a purely military solution. Without a change in the political dynamics – whether through negotiations, a shift in international support, or internal changes within Russia or Ukraine – the conflict is likely to continue indefinitely. The European Council on Foreign Relations recently highlighted an potential upcoming split within Europe regarding the war in Ukraine, suggesting further political complexities.
The lack of progress towards a negotiated settlement is a major concern. While both sides have expressed willingness to engage in talks at various points, fundamental disagreements over territorial integrity, security guarantees, and the future status of occupied territories have prevented any meaningful progress. The current international environment, characterized by geopolitical tensions and mistrust, further complicates the prospects for a diplomatic resolution.
Impact on Territory and Resources
As of February 2026, Russia’s control extends to roughly 20% of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea. The most intense fighting remains focused on the Donbas region, with Russia holding significant portions of both the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. The ongoing conflict has had a devastating impact on Ukraine’s economy, infrastructure, and population. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes, and the country faces a long and arduous path to recovery.
The war has also had broader implications for European security and the international order. It has led to increased military spending, a strengthening of NATO, and a reassessment of energy security policies. The conflict has also highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains and the importance of international cooperation in addressing shared challenges.
Looking Ahead
The IISS analysis suggests that without a significant political development, Ukraine and Russia are likely to remain locked in a protracted conflict. The situation demands continued international attention and support for Ukraine, as well as sustained diplomatic efforts to find a peaceful resolution. The next key development to watch will be the outcome of ongoing discussions among European leaders regarding the future of aid and support for Ukraine, as reported by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
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