Yemen’s internationally recognised government warned in Riyadh on July 28, 2026, that the Houthi movement aims to replicate Iran’s Strait of Hormuz strategy by controlling Red Sea shipping flows through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, potentially shutting down two major global trade gateways.
The warning, delivered by the foreign minister-designate for the internationally recognised Yemeni government, Afrah al-Zouba, comes as maritime trade and energy flows through the region face pressure. Speaking to journalists at the Yemeni embassy in Saudi Arabia’s capital, al-Zouba stated that the Iran-backed Houthis have been emboldened by an insufficient international response to their activities.
The Houthis want to copy the Iranian model, and this will shut down two main straits, the gateways into the Gulf and Red Sea,
the foreign minister-designate for the internationally recognised Yemeni government, Afrah al-Zouba, told journalists on Monday.
Strategic Stakes in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait
The geography of Yemen grants whoever controls its western coast a commanding influence over traffic passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean. Much like the Strait of Hormuz, the route is vital to global trade.
Approximately 30 percent of global container traffic passes through the Red Sea alongside 12 to 15 percent of overall global trade. Data suggests that shipping through the Red Sea is already declining, with just 11 commodity vessels passing through it on Sunday.
Escalating Conflict and the Red Sea Energy Crisis
The current maritime escalation unfolds against the backdrop of a broader regional conflict. Earlier in July, the Houthis declared a maritime siege on Red Sea shipping to and from Saudi Arabia, and launched missiles and drones at the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia has since launched air strikes on Yemen’s key port city of Hodeidah, held by the Houthis. Saudi Arabia responded with airstrikes on what it said were Houthi military facilities and said it would protect commercial shipping, accusing the Houthis of serving foreign agendas. July’s escalation is the biggest since a truce was agreed to in 2022 and came amid a resurgence of US attacks on Iran.
With Iran maintaining a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after Israel and the U.S. attacked it on February 28, the Red Sea had become a critical alternative outlet for Gulf oil and other products. Total petroleum volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted to 7.4 million bpd in June, or about 7% of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million bpd last year. Saudi Arabia responded by diverting more than 70% of its normal daily crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Shipments from Yanbu bound for Europe go north through the Suez Canal, while those heading to Asia go south through Bab al-Mandeb. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks according to data from Kpler and Signal Ocean, up from around 973,000 bpd a year earlier.
Frontline Preparations and Diplomatic Stances
Military tensions are translating directly to territorial flashpoints. Al-Zouba said Yemen’s government, which Saudi Arabia backs, is prepared for an escalation, and that fire was being exchanged along the front line where Houthi-controlled territory meets government-controlled areas, but that no offensive had been launched. Zouba said Yemen’s government, which enjoys strong Saudi backing, was prepared for an escalation and that firing was taking place along the frontline, spanning the country’s northwest from the Red Sea up to the Saudi border, but neither side had yet mounted an offensive.
Nearly 20 fighters from both sides died earlier this month during clashes between the Houthis and government forces around Hodeidah. Hundreds of thousands of people have died in Yemen since war broke out in 2014, when the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, and then-President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi eventually fled to Riyadh. Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition in a campaign to dislodge the Houthis from 2015 up to the 2022 truce. As of 2026, the Houthis remain in power in the capital and other parts of Yemen. Meanwhile, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which Riyadh accuses of backing a southern separatist group in Yemen, have affected developments on the ground. Yemeni civilians have paid the heaviest price, with an estimated 377,000 dying between 2015 and the beginning of 2022, most of them from war’s knock-on impacts, such as famine and disease.
“We think that this conflict now needs to come to an end, either via peaceful means, or the other way,”
Afrah al-Zouba, Foreign Minister-designate for the internationally recognised Yemeni government
When the Houthis launched attacks on Red Sea shipping in November 2023, Gulf oil exports were flowing freely. However, the subsequent escalation has brought renewed peril, with Saudi officials, Western diplomats and Yemeni officials seeing a return to full-scale war as more likely now than at any point since then.
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