A new poll of likely voters released ahead of the November 3 election shows Democratic state Representative James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by six points in the high-stakes Texas U.S. Senate race, while other statewide contests show tightening margins across the historically red state.
Tightening Statewide Races Across Texas
With a little over two months until Election Day on November 3, recent polling data indicates a more competitive political environment in Texas than in typical election cycles. In the nationally watched U.S. Senate contest, a Texas Public Opinion Research poll conducted from August 21 to August 23 found Democratic state Representative James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 48% to 42%, with 7% of voters undecided. The survey sampled 1,000 likely Texas voters and carried a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.
A separate poll conducted around the same time by Overton Insights and the Texas Public Policy Foundation presented a slightly tighter picture of the same matchup. That survey of 1,167 likely voters between August 24 and August 26 put Talarico ahead by less than a single point, 44.0% to 43.4%, well within its 2.9% margin of error.
Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham noted that Paxton remains well positioned for growth within a historically Republican electorate. This poll matches the betting markets, showing that it’s anyone’s race with just two months to go,
Cunningham said, pointing out that Paxton secured strong support among Republican voters compared to Talarico securing backing of Democrats.
Gubernatorial Contest and the Trump Factor
In the race for governor, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott holds a lead over Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa, though the margin varies by survey. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll places Abbott ahead by seven points, 49% to 42%, with 6% undecided and an Abbott net job approval rating of zero, with 48% approving and 48% disapproving.
Meanwhile, the Overton Insights survey found Abbott leading Hinojosa 46.9% to 45.8%, with about 7% undecided. When undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are included, Abbott’s support rises to 51.2% and Hinojosa’s to 48.8%.
Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, observed that while Texas remains a red state, the current cycle resembles a pink state
due in large part to the unpopularity of the Trump administration according to Newsweek.
Down-Ballot Races and Demographic Shifts
Beyond the top of the ticket, other statewide offices are seeing competitive margins. In the race for attorney general, Republican state Senator Mayes Middleton leads Democratic state Senator Nathan Johnson by three points, 44% to 41%, with 10% of voters undecided. In the lieutenant governor’s contest, Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin 47% to 41%.
Demographically, the polling reveals distinct divides. Independent voters are breaking heavily for Talarico in the Senate race by a 21-point margin, 51% to 31%. Paxton and Abbott maintain stronger support among white voters and voters aged 55 and older, while their Democratic challengers lead among Black, Latino, younger, and college-educated voters, as well as among women.
Parallel Senate Dynamics in Michigan
The competitive Senate environment extends beyond Texas. In Michigan, a nonpartisan EPIC-MRA survey released over the weekend showed Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers 47% to 43% in the race for an open Senate seat, with 10% undecided according to the Detroit Free Press. That poll surveyed 600 likely voters between August 22 and August 28 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.