Sri Lanka – An island nation of strategic importance to India and China. By exerting influence on Sri Lanka, China can monitor India. Kannupati will also be affected by the movement of goods through the Indian Ocean. If Pakistan on the other side and Sri Lanka on the other side are influenced, the Chinese dreams of conquering India will blossom. This is what made Sri Lanka important to China. Therefore, China did not waste any opportunity to invest in Lanka.
China took the stage when Rajapaksemar took power in Lanka, which was traditionally inclined towards India. Loans from Beijing flowed to Lanka. There has been a huge influx of Chinese investment in infrastructure development and more. But with the Sri Lankan economy collapsing, things were largely out of China’s hands. Can India bring Lanka closer if it tries now? India has been providing huge financial assistance, fuel and other assistance to Lanka. This move is not only to save a debt-ridden country, but also to keep China at bay. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is on the scene with tough measures to bail out Lanka. But will India or other countries of the world be able to get Lanka out of its current situation? Can New Delhi bring stability to Lanka?
People who have lost their patience, how about without the government?
On May 9, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will nominate Ranil Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister. But two months later, on July 9, the agitators broke into Ranil’s private residence and set it on fire. Ranil got a very tough task when he came to power. Ranil’s mission was to pacify the angry Lankans and negotiate with the IMF and other countries to get the economy moving. He hoped that it would be delayed. But the Lankan people, who have lost their patience due to the massive financial crisis and its misery, only want to get out of it as soon as possible. The protesters also gave an ultimatum to the politicians to resolve the issues and bring results as soon as possible without arguing and discussing with each other. Inflation is over 50 percent. One Sri Lankan rupee reached the rate of 350 dollars. With no proper government in power, food and fuel shortages will worsen in the coming days. Without the government, the crisis will worsen.
It is not clear how all these moves will come to fruition without a proper administration in place. There is a need for a government in the country to negotiate with the IMF and other countries and adhere to the tough conditions they demand. If chaos prevails, Lanka will not go back to the way it was any time soon. People’s protests erupted with specific objectives in Lanka. It had no support from any political party. Sri Lanka has seen public anger against the government as the Arab Spring erupted. But the fact is that the present situation in many of those countries is deplorable. Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Sudan and Tunisia are still in chaos. The future is still a question mark for them.
As demanded by the people, there should be a government in Lanka where the Rajapaksemars stay away and stay away from their shadow. Gotabaya has now announced that he will resign on the 13th. After that the Speaker will take over as President. The president should take office within a month after holding elections. People should give opportunity to that government to take decisive decisions.
IMF measures tough, will China agree?
Sri Lanka will have to accept tough measures from the IMF to bail out the country. 15% of Sri Lanka’s foreign debt is from China. The terms of this debt repayment will have to be changed according to the terms of the IMF. Whether China will agree to that is a big question. Hambantota port in Lanka and adjacent acres of land were under China’s control for 99 years due to default in repayment.
Meanwhile, aid flows to Lanka under India’s ‘neighbours first’ policy. India is constantly giving to Lanka in cash and humanitarian approaches. India also provided rice, milk powder, medicines etc. to Lanka. The country is ready to provide further assistance while protecting India’s interests. But Lanka’s instability should not last long. India is also not interested in that. The need is to form a new government that is interested in India. If the problems in Sri Lanka go unchecked, it will backfire on India too.
Crisis in Sri Lanka so far
Today, the people of Sri Lanka want the downfall of a family that ruled Sri Lanka. The losses inflicted on Lanka by those four brothers of the Rajapakse family have shattered the island nation beyond repair today. Rajapaksemars were once the heroes of the country. The core of their rise to stardom is the assassination of the leader of the Tamil Tigers (LTTE), Velupillai Prabhakaran, who brought an end to the country’s civil war. Gotabaya Rajapakse returned to power with a large majority, despite losing popular support. But it was from there that the downfall of the Rajapakses began.
Under Gotabaya’s rule only things happened to appease the majority Sinhalese Buddhists in the country. Gotabaya spared the minorities Hindus, Muslims, Tamils and Christians. Gotabaya, who came to power promising to reduce taxes, ignored the advice of economic advisors and implemented the decision. The rich and middle class initially supported this decision. There were 15 lakh people as tax payers and reduced to less than 5 lakh. This decision became a nail that drove the economy of Lanka. When the economy went down, Lanka was left with insufficient income. And then the covid. At this time, Gotabaya, who handled the health sector and the economy, received an outpouring of appreciation.
Later in 2020, Rajapaksemar came to power with a large majority. The country was ruled by Gotabaya as President and Mahinda as Prime Minister. Later, his younger brother Basil became the Finance Minister. His elder brother Chamal became the Agriculture Minister. Mahinda’s son Namal debuts as Minister of Youth and Sports for succession. Gotabaya was not ready to stop even there. Parliament decided to amend the constitution and give excessive powers to the president.
But things were getting out of hand. Lanka’s efforts to recover from Covid were worse than expected. With the loss of tourists, the main source of income has declined. Foreign exchange reserves have dwindled. He insisted that the country should ban chemical fertilizers and switch to green manure. As a result, paddy production fell by 40 percent. Farmers who had supported Rajapaksa left.
Rajapaksemar gave importance to China after India. The port agreement signed with India and Japan was canceled overnight and later given to China. But China did not help when Lanka was reeling under economic crisis. Inflation increased, fuel shortages occurred, and foreign exchange reserves dwindled. Despite being in dire straits, the communication between the brothers decreased. Neither Gotabaya nor the other brothers bothered to listen to the words of Mahinda, who had more political knowledge. And vice versa. Their differences of opinion came out in the open. This caused problems all over the country. Chamal, Bazeil, Namal and some other ministers resigned in the name of cabinet reshuffle to ease the problems. But the protest did not end. There was a clamor for Mahinda and Gotabaya to change. Mahinda resigned on May 9. But Mahinda’s men attacked the protesters. This led to further protests. Mahinda and his family escaped by helicopter to the naval base. The protest intensified – chants of Gotta Go Home were raised.
Gotabaya agreed to make his main rival, Ranil Wickremesinghe, prime minister as a last resort to hang on to power. Ranil had a tough challenge to raise the financial sector. Ranil Wickramasinghe was the only MP from his own party in the 225-member Parliament. His decision was to rule with the support of Gotabaya and the opposition, even though he did not have the majority to rule the country. But Ranil also could not save Lanka. Finally, he had to announce his resignation after the protesters set fire to his house.
Even as the country burns, there is no shortage of luxury
The protesters occupying the presidential palace, where Gotabaya Rajapakse used to live, see the last word in luxury. The protestors are raising the question whether these Rajapaksemars were so comfortable here while we were starving and suffering. The security forces did not try to disperse the rioting crowd at the presidential palace. Pictures have emerged of protesters climbing on Gotabaya’s bed, chairs and swimming pool. Apart from the protesters, ‘tourists’ also came to see such luxuries.
The Rajapakse government, which came to power with a large majority in just two years, is falling. Corruption and mismanagement on the part of the government has eroded the patience of the people. They did not hold back and things escalated to protests in the streets of Lanka and eventually to the occupation of the President’s Palace. Gotabaya has now announced that he will resign on the 13th. The people of Sri Lanka are now feeling the length of hours rather than minutes. It is not sure how patiently the protestors will wait for two days.
English Summary: Sri Lanka crisis and India’s hopes to counter China: Nobody can help Sri Lanka unless there’s a credible regime in place