2024-09-02 02:49:41
When the Ukrainian military launched an offensive in the Kursk region in early August, it didn’t just wreak havoc on the Russian military. It also affected the lives of thousands of local residents. According to political geographer Michael Romantsov, it is thus possible that the presence of Ukrainian soldiers could change the perception of the conflict among some residents who remained in the area. But it probably won’t be enough to bring about societal change.
“In this respect, the Russian regime is lucky that there has been no need to evacuate any large cities so far. Although there are many evacuees, they are people from small towns and villages, so their ability to shake public opinion in Russia will be relatively small,” explains Romantsov. Until now, the Russian population was most often affected by the war only at the individual level, but now, according to the political geographer, the conflict has affected a large number of people across the board.
According to Romantsov, the regime had to solve a similar “reputational” problem already in September 2022, when the first major mobilization took place and a million people “disappeared” from Russia overnight. “These were people from big cities. Since then, Putin’s regime has been very careful not to repeat this situation by any chance. But now they have it here,” the expert states.
Those who decided to stay in the Kursk region are now in direct confrontation with Ukrainian soldiers and fundamentally different information. “Perhaps they are starting to lose the idea of what it is about and why it is happening, which they had until now from Russian information sources,” explains Romantsov.
Apart from a few individuals who speak publicly against the Russian invasion and Putin himself, according to Romantsov, there is no relevant force that would have a chance to shake up the regime or even replace it. “However, the fact is that Russia always looks very monolithic and stable, and then it suddenly collapses,” warns the expert on the events of the last century. He adds, however, that external observers could not predict these crucial moments in advance. “So anything can happen, but at this moment, unfortunately, I don’t see such a perspective,” he states in the interview.
According to the political geographer, the fact that the intended three-day war has already lasted over 900 days cannot be ignored. “If we look at 1917 or the 1990s, when Russia collapsed, it was always a period when there were an awful lot of challenges and pressure. And the regime, although robust, was no longer enough to manage all the small crises that occurred,” describes. According to Romantsov, the duration of the conflict alone will not change anything. “But the fact is that despite the fact that the Russian regime is still stable at this moment, it has been under pressure for 915 days (the interview was filmed on Tuesday, August 27, editor’s note). This is of course something that does not benefit him,” he concludes.
You can watch the entire interview in the video below or listen to it in your favorite podcast app. What were its main themes?
00:08-05:41 How much longer is the war than the Kremlin originally imagined? Could Moscow afford not to launch an offensive, more massive retaliation? Did Putin have to be furious after the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk? And will the massive Russian attacks keep coming?
05:41-09:14 How much air superiority does Russia have after two and a half years of war? Can Moscow present the activation of Polish fighter jets as a partial success? And are there people around Putin who may not agree with the form of some operations?
09:14-16:05 How big a bite did Ukraine take with the incursion into the Kursk region? How is it that the Russian army command did not foresee the invasion of Kursk in time? What is the state of the Ukrainian offensive now? And can this step be expected to weaken the Russian army?
16:05-25:00 How much do recent events affect the Russian power structure? Has the operation shattered the image of a strong Russia? And what is the mood in Russian society now?
25:00-30:12 Is there still any internal opposition in Russia that can tame Putin’s efforts? How often do defector actions occur? And what keeps Putin’s regime going geopolitically?
30:12-33:47 Under what condition can a peace summit take place and what should it bring? And will Russia exploit the general exhaustion from the war in order to pressure Ukraine into capitulation?
Spotlight Aktuálně.cz – Michael Romancov | Video: Team Spotlight