2023 will be a challenging year for the global smartphone market, which is expected to enter an upward trajectory from 2024 onwards. Global smartphone sales are estimated to decline by 1.1% in 2023 compared to a year earlier, with the recovery set for 2024. In its new report (Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecast), IDC revised its estimates for the path of the smartphone market in 2023 to hand, clarifying that the recovery of the market should not be expected earlier than 2024, due to the slower recovery of demand. According to the latest Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecast cited by SEPE, smartphone shipments will decline by 1.1% in 2023 to 1.19 billion units as the market continues to suffer from weak demand and ongoing macroeconomic challenges. We remind you that the company’s initial forecast called for an increase of 2.8% in 2023. “The real recovery of the market is not expected to happen until 2024, a year in which we expect annual growth of 5.9%.” This rate translates into a single-digit compound growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6%,” IDC underlines.
For this year, it is estimated that sales will decline in percentage terms by 1.1% compared to a year earlier.
“With rising costs and continued challenges in consumer demand, manufacturers are quite cautious for 2023. While there is finally some good news coming out of China with the recent reopening of the economy, there is still a lot of uncertainty and a lack of consumer demand,” add the analysts of IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers division.
However, analysts remain confident that the global market will return to growth in 2024 after overcoming short-term challenges, as there is a significant renewal cycle in developed markets, as well as further scope for smartphone penetration in emerging markets. 5G, according to analysts, continues to grow and will account for 62% of smartphones shipped worldwide in 2023, rising to 83% by 2027. Market dynamics also continue to develop around foldable phones, as the sector is expected to grow to nearly 22 million units this year – a 50% increase, while the overall market is shrinking. This segment will continue to grow as costs come down and more manufacturers launch foldable phones, as seen at this year’s Mobile World Congress.