It is a war of attrition that is being played out in eastern Ukraine. Since the Russian army refocused its objective on the “total control of Donbass and southern Ukraine”, the tactics used are the same: intense bombardments by artillery, planes and helicopters, followed by armored assaults. From Izium, already under their control, the Russian forces lead an assault in the direction of Barvinkové, further south. And from there try to progress towards Pokrovsk. This pincer movement aims to isolate the Ukrainian army by cutting off its supplies. The terrain of Donbass, less urbanized, allows the Russian army to better use its superiority in armor and artillery. Faced with the resistance of Ukrainian soldiers, the front lines move little, even if the Ministry of Defense in kyiv recognized, Wednesday, April 27, the capture of several localities by Russian forces.
Bombed cities and the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine on April 27, 2022.
“As long as Ukraine can prevent Russia from encircling a large part of its forces, Russian tactical or operational successes are unlikely to translate into strategic gains. », Analyzes Rob Lee, researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. «Ukraine can afford to trade space for time, retreating to more defensible ground, even cities, if necessary. If Ukraine loses territory but can still inflict greater losses on Russia than it takes, it could be considered a success. »
war of means
Between kyiv and Moscow, a “war of means” has begun. Spearheading military aid to Ukraine, such as economic sanctions against Russia, the United States is now betting openly on the « victoire » of Kiev et “weakening” of the Russian war machine. “To the point where she couldn’t do what she did by invading Ukraine. said US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. A Contact Group on Ukraine will meet monthly, face-to-face or online, to continue coordinating the strengthening of Ukraine’s defense capabilities. “The invasion of Ukraine must become a strategic failure for Russia”declared the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken, Tuesday, April 26, before Congress.
→ EDITORIAL. War of attrition
Everything indicates that Western countries are placing themselves in a logic of long war to allow Ukraine to recover the territories occupied since February 24, or even, perhaps, the part of Donbass controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. “Consensus exists between allies on military assistance to Ukraine to help it recover its full sovereignty and territorial integrity”analyzes François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS). “On the other hand, a war objective centered on the weakening of Russia has not been discussed with the Europeans, and it is not certain that all will agree. »
In the absence of real military gains, will Vladimir Putin seek a way out or escalation? For now, everything indicates that the Kremlin is preparing, diplomatically, militarily and economically, for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, perceived and presented in Moscow as an episode of confrontation with the West. “A Ukrainian victory is possible, but it will take a long time to fight hard”say Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, researchers at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi, London), in a report on the Russian invasion, published on April 22. «Moscow’s intention is to prolong the fighting. In the short term, this means a major offensive in the Donbass. In the medium term, there is an intention to carry out a summer offensive to finish off Ukraine. »
“Great Patriotic War”
In official discourse, the war in Ukraine is compared to the ” Great Patriotic War between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany, a narrative intended to justify the losses and prepare the population for the sacrifices to come. «Vladimir Putin is not ready to accept a defeat that would call into question his legitimacy, his power and his revisionist geopolitical project “, underlines Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, doctor in geopolitics and specialist in Russia. “The limits of its military tool forced it to redefine its objectives downwards, but the political end remains the same: the disappearance of Ukraine as an independent and sovereign state. »
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Two months of war in Ukraine
February 24. Russia begins its invasion with airstrikes and missile fire on the whole Ukrainian territory.
2 mars. In the south of the country, the Russian army seizes Kherson, the largest Ukrainian city captured by Moscow, and completes the encirclement of Mariupol.
10 mars. The Ukrainian army destroys a column of Russian tanks in the suburbs of kyiv, while the Russian army is positioned to the north, east and west of the capital.
25 mars. Russian forces withdrew from the kyiv region and then from the whole of northern Ukraine.
8 avril. A Russian strike on Kramatorsk station in the east of the country kills 59 civilians.
18 avril. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announces the start of the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.