2023-12-06 18:55:15
After a few years in crisis, airlines hope to transport a “historic record” of 4.7 billion passengers worldwide in 2024, surpassing the 4.54 billion in 2019, before the Covid-19 epidemic.
Published on: 06/12/2023 – 17:55
3 min
In 2023, airlines overcame the effects of Covid-19 and came out of the red, with accumulated net gains of US$23.3 billion (R$115 billion), according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In 2024, profits should “stabilize” at around US$25.7 billion (R$127 billion).
In terms of revenue, the sector should reach an unprecedented level of US$964 billion (R$4.73 trillion), above the R$896 billion (R$4.43 trillion) estimated for 2023 and the R$838 billion (R$ $3.37 trillion at the time) recorded in 2019.
But the outlook changes depending on the region: the profits of companies in the United States, Europe and the Middle East will remain stable. In deficit in 2023, those in Asia-Pacific will come out of the red in 2024, according to IATA, which predicts that African and South American companies will remain in deficit for another year.
Airline companies are among the economic sectors most affected by the health crisis, due to border closures and travel restrictions. Between 2020 and 2022, losses of around US$183 billion (R$906 billion) were accumulated.
“Given the massive losses of recent years”, the expected profits in 2024 “illustrate the resilience of the airline sector”, said IATA Director General Willie Walsh, who celebrated “the extraordinary pace of recovery”. However, “it appears that the pandemic cost the sector four years of growth”, Walsh told the press at the organization’s headquarters in Geneva (Switzerland).
Normal growth
“From 2024 onwards, forecasts show that we can expect more normal growth trajectories, both in relation to passengers and cargo”, according to the general director.
Freight transport lost profitability. Its revenue is expected to reach US$ 111 billion (R$ 549 billion) in 2024, against 210 billion in 2021 (US$ 1.17 trillion at the time), still above the 101 billion in 2019 (R$ 407 billion reais at the exchange rate at the time).
In passenger transport, the strong recovery in 2023 led to a rise in ticket prices, as demand for travel exceeded the companies’ capacity, affected by delayed aircraft deliveries and other operational difficulties.
The trend should lose strength in 2024, but without reversing, says IATA. Airplane occupancy rates have already returned to pre-pandemic levels. However, Walsh highlighted that the profitability of air transport is weak compared to other sectors, with an average profit per passenger of just US$5.45 (R$26).
Rising fuel prices
Flight costs will continue to be inflated by fuel prices: in 2024, the kerosene bill should be 281 billion dollars (1.39 trillion reais), which represents 31% of operational expenses.
IATA’s outlook is based on the price per barrel at US$113.8 in 2024 (R$559), compared to US$79.7 in 2019 (US$321 at the exchange rate at the time).
According to these forecasts, revealed during the COP28 climate summit, airlines are expected to consume 374 billion liters of fuel in 2024, which will emit 939 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. Air transport represents less than 3% of global CO2 emissions, but is often highlighted because it is only used by a minority of the world’s population. The sector has committed to reaching “net zero” CO2 emissions by 2050.
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