Amanda Seyfried and Rose Byrne Emerge as Frontrunners in Tight Best Actress Oscar Race
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The competition for the 2026 Best Actress Oscar is heating up, with Amanda Seyfried and Rose Byrne rapidly gaining momentum as potential nominees. Seyfried, a previous Best Supporting Actress nominee for Lack (2020), is now considered a strong contender for her performance in The Testament of Ann Lee, while Byrne’s role in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You is generating significant buzz.
A Late Surge for Seyfried
Seyfried’s path to Oscar consideration was initially delayed, as Searchlight Pictures acquired distribution rights to the musical feature in September before announcing a December 25th theatrical release. Despite the late start, she has since received nominations at both the Gotham Awards and the Astra Awards for her portrayal of Ann Lee, the founder of the Shakers, a Quaker sect known for its ecstatic dances. “This movie is not for the faint of heart,” Seyfried reportedly told Gold Derby, describing the film as “a piece of art [that] doesn’t fit into any box.”
Byrne’s Breakthrough Performance
Australian actress Rose Byrne is also making a strong case for her first Oscar nomination. She embodies Linda, an emotionally exhausted therapist grappling with the stress of caring for her seriously ill daughter in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. While Byrne has received two previous Emmy nominations for her work on Damages alongside Glenn Close, this performance is being hailed as a potential career-defining moment. According to one source, Byrne described the immersive filming experience, noting the cameras were positioned “so close” to her face that she could “hear [the mechanisms] of the film.”
The Current Oscar Landscape
As of this week, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) leads the Gold Derby predictions with a 96% chance of nomination, followed by Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) at 92%, Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) at 74%, and Emma Stone (Bugonia) at 63%. Seyfried has climbed to fifth place with a 53% probability, closely trailed by Byrne at 51%. .
Golden Globes Offer Wider Opportunities
Both Seyfried and Byrne are also considered strong contenders for the Golden Globes, which feature six nominees in each acting category, divided between comedy/musical and drama. In the Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress category, they are predicted to compete against Erivo, Stone, Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), and Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue).
A Director’s Trust and an Actor’s Immersion
The director of The Testament of Ann Lee, Here Fastvold, reportedly conveyed her confidence in Seyfried’s ability to embody the complex role of Ann Lee. Seyfried shared that Fastvold’s trust inspired her to “trust myself as well” and fully commit to the part. Byrne, meanwhile, emphasized the collaborative nature of her filming experience, stating she felt like “a team” with the camera department.
The 2026 Oscar nominations will be announced on January 22nd, and fans are encouraged to update their predictions at Gold Derby to influence the odds.
