The hierarchy of the artificial intelligence gold rush is shifting and the evidence is hiding in plain sight within the secondary markets. While OpenAI has long been the undisputed face of the generative AI era, a recent momentum is building around its chief rival, Anthropic, as institutional appetite for the company’s shares reaches what some describes as “insatiable” levels.
This surge in Anthropic private market demand suggests a pivot in how the world’s largest investors are hedging their bets on the future of Large Language Models (LLMs). For years, the prevailing strategy was to buy into every major player to avoid missing the winner. Now, the market is becoming more discerning, creating a stark contrast in liquidity between the two AI giants.
But, this AI-centric drama is unfolding against the backdrop of a much larger financial event. SpaceX, the rocket and satellite behemoth, has reportedly filed confidentially for an initial public offering (IPO). If the launch proceeds as planned, the sheer scale of the SpaceX debut could drain the available capital for other late-stage private companies, potentially spoiling the party for both Anthropic and OpenAI.
The Shift in AI Momentum
In the high-stakes world of private securities, the ease with which an investor can acquire shares is the ultimate indicator of a company’s perceived trajectory. According to Glen Anderson, president of the investment bank Rainmaker Securities, Anthropic has become the most elusive asset in the current market.
The demand is so aggressive that buyers have indicated they have as much as $2 billion in cash ready to deploy into Anthropic. In contrast, a significant block of OpenAI shares—roughly $600 million—has recently struggled to discover takers. Anderson notes that while he wouldn’t describe the situation as a binary “one-or-the-other” choice for investors, the vibrancy of the market has clearly shifted.
Much of this enthusiasm stems from Anthropic’s ability to differentiate itself from OpenAI, not just technically, but culturally. A pivotal moment came during the company’s public standoff with the Department of Defense, where the Pentagon labeled the company a supply chain risk. While such a designation might typically be viewed as a liability, it functioned as a marketing catalyst.
The conflict cast Anthropic as a principled underdog taking on substantial government, which amplified the company’s brand and attracted a wave of supporters. This narrative differentiation has made the company more attractive to investors who are looking for a distinct alternative to the OpenAI ecosystem.
Valuation Gaps and Control Tactics
The divergence in sentiment is too appearing in the numbers. While OpenAI remains a titan, its secondary market performance is showing signs of friction. Shares are currently trading at a valuation of approximately $765 billion—a noticeable discount compared to the company’s most recent primary-round valuation of $852 billion.
OpenAI has attempted to stabilize this volatility by asserting more control over how its equity changes hands. The company has cautioned investors against using special purpose vehicles (SPVs) or high-fee brokers, instead establishing authorized channels through major banks to facilitate trades without fees.
The banking industry’s reaction further underscores the current market temperature. Major firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have begun offering OpenAI shares to high-net-worth clients without charging carry fees. Meanwhile, for those seeking exposure to Anthropic, Goldman continues to charge its customary carry—typically between 15% and 20% of profits—reflecting the higher premium and demand associated with the stock.
The SpaceX Shadow
While the AI firms battle for mindshare, SpaceX has maintained a trajectory that Anderson describes as consistently “up and to the right.” Unlike many private companies that suffered punishing corrections between 2022 and 2024—with some valuations dropping 60% to 70%—SpaceX avoided the crash through disciplined pricing.
By resisting the temptation to maximize stock prices in every single funding round, SpaceX management left room for consistent growth. This conservative approach has resulted in massive gains for early backers. Investors who entered in 2015, when the company was valued at roughly $12 billion, are now looking at gains exceeding 100x, as the company’s valuation has climbed past $1 trillion.
The imminent IPO of SpaceX represents a potential liquidity vacuum for the rest of the private market. Reports indicate Elon Musk is aiming to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion in a listing that could occur as early as June. To put that in perspective, only the 2019 debut of Saudi Aramco, which valued the energy giant at $1.7 trillion, has reached similar proportions.
The impact of such a massive listing is twofold. First, it creates a “buy-side” frenzy for SpaceX shares, drying up secondary supply as current holders wait for the official liquidity event. Second, and more critically for the AI sector, it risks soaking up the majority of the capital allocated for major IPOs this year.
Comparison of Private Market Dynamics
| Company | Secondary Market Sentiment | Valuation Trend | Primary Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | Insatiable Demand | Rising / Premium | DoD Standoff / Differentiation |
| OpenAI | Cooling / Selective | Discounted vs. Primary | Market Saturation / Control Shift |
| SpaceX | High / IPO-Driven | Consistent Growth | Confidential IPO Filing |
The First-Mover Disadvantage
Both Anthropic and OpenAI are reportedly exploring their own public offerings. However, the timing of SpaceX’s filing puts them in a precarious position. In the world of high-finance, the first massive IPO of a cycle often sets the tone and captures the lion’s share of available cash.
If SpaceX successfully executes its multi-billion dollar raise, subsequent companies may find that the biggest checks have already been written. Those who follow will face not only tighter liquidity but also increased scrutiny from a market that has already spent its appetite on a trillion-dollar aerospace giant.
For the AI companies, the lesson is one of timing. Going public too early means risking the role of the “market tester,” but waiting too long may mean finding the trough empty. As SpaceX prepares to test the waters, the AI sector is discovering that even the most advanced models cannot predict the volatility of human capital.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
The next major checkpoint for this market will be the official pricing and launch date of the SpaceX IPO, which will serve as a litmus test for the broader appetite for late-stage private equity. We invite you to share your thoughts on the AI valuation race in the comments below.
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