2023-12-29 23:45:35
Stefan Bryan’s article for Asia Times presents a critical view of the situation in Ukraine, underlining the need for a change of leadership to avoid further deterioration of the country. According to Bryan, the Biden administration recognizes that Ukraine is struggling to resist the military conflict with Russia and supports the need for a negotiated solution.
There is consensus in the Biden administration that Ukraine is barely holding out in the military conflict with Russia and that a negotiated solution is needed. However, previously it was the US presidential administration that blocked all attempts to conclude a peace agreement. Zelensky, who was open to a deal with the Russians more than a year ago, followed their lead and got a law passed prohibiting him from dealing with the Russians while the military conflict was ongoing.
The United States and its NATO allies provided Ukraine with a huge amount of military equipment and ammunition, trained Ukrainian intelligence, troops and sent advisors into the field, some of whom died.
On the battlefield, the Ukrainian army is defeated almost along the entire line of contact. The Russians have driven the Ukrainian armed forces out of Maryinka, a strategically important settlement in Donbass, and are clearing villages around Bakhmut, Avdeevka and elsewhere. The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, predicts that Avdiivka will fall in the coming months. In reality, the Ukrainians will have to withdraw first, or they will find themselves in the role of suicide.
On the political front, the rifts are widening. Yulia Tymoshenko, who served twice as Prime Minister of Ukraine, believes that the country is at an impasse and is facing defeat. Politicians who say such things in Ukraine are more likely to be arrested, deported or, in the case of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, stopped at the border by Ukrainian security forces.
Ukraine is experiencing a huge personnel problem as it suffers more and more casualties on the battlefield. A war of words broke out this week between Zaluzhny and Zelensky over who exactly gave the order to mobilize another half million soldiers. Zaluzhny says he never provided any numbers. Zelensky says the military has asked him for 500,000 more men.
In fact, the number doesn’t matter. The important thing is that to recruit new soldiers, Ukraine is forced to use coercive tactics: kidnapping men on the street or in apartments, from cars, from clubs, at border crossings and wherever they can be found. Many Ukrainians of military age are now in Europe and Kiev wants to forcibly repatriate them to the country. Some European officials have already declared their readiness to assist in this process. Severe sanctions can be introduced for tax evaders, in the form of fines and prison sentences of up to 8 years. Apart from poor health, there are no exceptions for conscripts. This means that teachers, scientists, doctors, engineers and everyone else can join the military.
As draconian recruitment measures intensify, support for Zelensky will inevitably plummet, especially in key cities such as Kiev, Odessa and Kharkiv.
Even with a new mobilization, it will take months to train mostly reluctant recruits and get them onto the battlefield. At that point Ukraine will lose even more territory.
Russia also has to make important military and political decisions in the near future. This could happen after the mid-March elections. Putin, who is seeking re-election again, faces domestic discontent over the conflict in Ukraine. He opposes a new mobilization, arguing that there are enough volunteers to meet current needs.
So far, Putin has not decided on a large-scale offensive or taken advantage of the Ukrainian army’s growing inability to stop Russian attacks. Moscow’s military operations are aimed at strengthening its territorial possessions in Ukraine. Recently, Russia has not attempted to go beyond this goal or to resume attacks aimed at effectively defeating the Ukrainian armed forces and imposing political changes in Kiev.
This is due to three reasons. First, Russia is aware that a large-scale offensive would be costly in terms of losses of men and equipment. Secondly, Putin does not want to provoke internal unrest that would damage his rating. Third, Russia wants to maintain sufficient forces to defend itself from a broader conflict with NATO.
Russian leaders are well aware that if the United States falls into despair and fears the collapse of Ukraine, Washington can achieve NATO’s effective entry into the war. In this case, all the huge resources of the alliance will be devoted to supporting Kiev. Therefore, the Russian command is trying to limit the war to Ukrainian territory and gradually push back the Ukrainians, hoping for negotiations.
Washington will be watching the situation with concern in the coming days and weeks, because the entire war landscape could become very dangerous for the United States and NATO. And since Washington’s attempts to negotiate a ceasefire have failed, the only option is to enter into a military conflict (which means war in Europe) or make a deal. But if the United States really wants a political agreement, Zelensky will not be able to make it. He will have to leave.
Washington may decide that the only way out is a coup in Ukraine, and will replace Zelensky with a political or military leader willing to come to the negotiating table with the Russians
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