Aukus Deal Faces Mounting Skepticism as US Submarine Sales Look Increasingly Unlikely
Australia’s ambitious A$368 billion (approximately $245 billion USD) Aukus security pact is facing growing doubts, with a new US congressional report raising serious questions about whether the United States will ever deliver the promised Virginia-class nuclear submarines. While the Australian Submarine Agency insists the agreement is progressing “at pace and on schedule,” critics argue the chances of the US fulfilling its commitment are dwindling amid concerns over its own naval capacity and strategic priorities.
The core of the Aukus agreement, finalized in 2022, centers on providing Australia with the technology and infrastructure to operate a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. The initial plan involved the purchase of between three and five Virginia-class submarines from the US, beginning as early as 2032. However, a January report from the US Congressional Research Service (CRS) – Congress’s non-partisan research arm – openly contemplates a scenario where the US Navy retains all Virginia-class submarines, even those earmarked for Australia, due to potential conflicts, particularly with China over Taiwan.
The CRS report proposes an alternative “military division of labour,” suggesting that submarines initially intended for sale to Australia could instead be stationed at Australian bases but remain under direct US command. This would allow for rapid deployment in the event of a crisis, something Australian-commanded vessels would not permit. “In the event of a ‘conflict or crisis’ with China over Taiwan, submarines under Australian command could not be ordered into operation, whereas US-commanded vessels, operated out of Australian bases, could be immediately deployed,” the report states.
Australia has consistently maintained it would not offer guarantees of support for the US in a potential conflict with China, a position that, according to the CRS, “could weaken rather than strengthen deterrence and warfighting capability.”
Despite the report’s findings, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles dismissed it as mere “commentary” on Thursday, asserting that the Aukus agreement remains “full steam ahead.” He pointed to statements from the US President affirming the US commitment to the deal, including the transfer of Virginia-class submarines.
A spokesperson for the Australian Submarine Agency echoed this sentiment, stating that Aukus “remains firmly in the strategic interests of its three partners – Australia, the US and the UK” and that “Australia’s commitment to the Aukus partnership is unwavering.” The agency also emphasized ongoing investments in industrial bases to meet the project’s timelines.
However, political figures within Australia are increasingly voicing skepticism. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, whose previous submarine deal with France was scrapped in favor of Aukus, has accused the current government of being in “an exercise of denial” regarding the deal’s precarious state. He argues the Aukus agreement is fundamentally skewed in America’s favor. “The Aukus deal is a very attractive one for the Americans because they get a submarine base and dockyard at Australia’s expense in Western Australia, and they do not have any obligation to sell any Virginia-class submarines to us unless their navy can spare them,” Turnbull stated. He further explained that the US could legally avoid selling submarines without technically breaching the agreement.
Senator David Shoebridge of the Greens went further, labeling the deal a “pantomime” that is “hopelessly one-sided in America’s favour.” He contends that any submarines ultimately delivered to Australia will remain under US control.
Underlying these concerns is the US Navy’s struggle to maintain its own submarine fleet and meet current shipbuilding demands. For the past 15 years, the Navy has aimed to order two Virginia-class submarines annually, but shipyards have consistently fallen short, currently producing approximately 1.1 to 1.2 boats per year. This has created a significant backlog. Legislation passed by the US Congress further complicates matters, prohibiting the sale of submarines if it would negatively impact the US Navy’s own capabilities. The US commander-in-chief must certify that relinquishing a submarine “will not degrade the United States undersea capabilities.”
The CRS report highlights that the US fleet currently operates only 49 submarines, falling short of its goal of 66. Increasing production to meet both US needs and the Aukus commitment would require a substantial increase in shipbuilding rates – a feat many experts deem unrealistic.
The Aukus agreement is structured in two phases. The first involves the acquisition of Virginia-class submarines, while the second, slated for the “late 2030s,” will see the UK begin construction of a new submarine specifically designed for the Aukus partnership. Australia aims to build its first Aukus submarine in the “early 2040s,” with a total of up to eight vessels planned for launch by the 2060s. Each submarine is expected to have a lifespan of approximately three decades, and Australia will bear the responsibility for the long-term storage of nuclear waste generated by the fleet.
Even with continued political support from figures like former President Donald Trump, who reportedly stated the deal was “full steam ahead,” the future of Aukus remains uncertain. The fundamental question remains: will the US prioritize its own strategic needs over its commitments to Australia, potentially leaving the Aukus agreement as a costly investment in a US-controlled military asset rather than a genuine enhancement of Australian defense capabilities?
