Gas prices under President Donald Trump have surpassed those under his predecessor Joe Biden, with the national average hitting $4.29 per gallon as the 2026 midterms approach, fueling voter discontent and reshaping political dynamics.
The average price of a gallon of gasoline during Trump’s second term has exceeded Biden’s entire four-year presidency, according to federal data. Since Trump took office on January 20, 2025, gasoline has averaged $3.449 per gallon, while Biden’s era saw an average of $3.455, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration. However, current prices—$4.29 nationally as of October 2026—reflect a stark shift, driven by the Iran war and global supply disruptions.
Clinton and Obama were both at 46% approval rating when they lost the House in 1994 and 2010.Trump is at 34% today.per nyt/siena pic.twitter.com/vpUtcC9zCR
Gas Prices Surpass Biden Era, Fueling Voter Anger
Trump’s promise to bring gas prices below $2 per gallon has faltered, with the national average now $4.29—a $1.25 increase from 2025. This surge has become a central issue in the 2026 midterms, with 73% of voters disapproving of Trump’s handling of gas prices, per a New York Times/Siena University poll. It’s pretty astonishing,
said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noting the reversal of Trump’s 2024 campaign pledges.
The spike is linked to the Iran war, which has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers now face costly workarounds, with shipping costs soaring from $65,000 to $1.6 million per day. If prices are going up in one place, the chances are they will pull up prices in another place,
said Ramanan Krishnamoorti, a petroleum engineering professor at the University of Houston. Diesel prices, at $6.30 per gallon, have surged 75% from a year ago, further straining households.
BREAKING: 2026 has now seen more days with average gas prices over $4/gal than any year before: 158 days
Iran War and Supply Chain Crises Drive Costs
The war’s ripple effects are felt nationwide. In California, gas prices have risen 30% since 2025, while Utah sees a 70% spike. It’s affecting my budget, said Sharie Smith, a Toledo resident, who now spends $50–$60 every 10 days to fill her car. Such stories highlight the economic strain, with 56% of consumers citing rising prices as a key financial stressor, according to the University of Michigan.
Political Fallout: Trump’s Approval Slides
High gas prices do not bode well for incumbents,
said Ed Hirs, an energy fellow at the University of Houston. The president’s claims that rising prices are a small price to pay for Iran’s nuclear program have failed to resonate, with 68% of voters disapproving of his economic handling.
Republicans face a dire outlook. A 10 October Politico poll found that even a $1-per-gallon drop would not sway most voters. It’s the cost of gasoline and the cost of diesel,
said GOP Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, acknowledging the issue’s grip on his campaign. With the midterm elections on November 3, Trump’s team has announced $8 billion in diesel subsidies and tax breaks, but analysts doubt their immediate impact.
Experts Warn: Prices Will Stay High
Energy experts predict gas prices will remain above $4 per gallon through the midterms. Short answer: No,
said Ramanan Krishnamoorti when asked if prices would drop below $4 by Election Day. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a key buffer, is at record lows, limiting government intervention. We’re not out of the woods even if peace breaks out today,
Hirs said, noting Middle East production facilities will take months to restore.
TRUMP on HIGH GAS PRICES: We’re making money like we’ve never made before. They’ll say: President Trump is bragging about all the money they're making while people are suffering at the pump. I don’t give a damn. We’re making a freaking fortune. pic.twitter.com/KZ2pYsTPyR
Trump’s administration has taken steps to ease costs, including relaxing environmental rules and boosting U.S. diesel output. However, these measures have not reversed the trend. With voters increasingly prioritizing affordability, the 2026 midterms could mark a turning point in Trump’s presidency, as gas prices continue to shape the political landscape.
Trump: "I thought the price of oil was gonna go much, much higher, and I was fully prepared to do it" pic.twitter.com/RcTZumvDhc
More on Ramanan Krishnamoorti
The war in Iran has fundamentally changed the international energy markets. Best-case scenario, energy inflation will still endure for months. Enjoyed talking Trump, Iran, and cheap oil with @Bloomberg's @davidgura and @EenaRuffini https://t.co/kSkhuoW8UN
the relief isn’t coming before election day. gas holding at $4.24/gal, diesel at $6.34/gal — Great Lakes spiking on a refinery issue, Hormuz at a fraction of normal traffic, and every policy lever has been pulled. weekly update is live! https://t.co/iWJSQ1vxFp
ELECTION DAY RECORD: with a week to go, U.S. gas prices are 42.3c/gal above 2022’s election day avg, the priciest election day at the pump ever. diesel is nearly $1/gal above 2022’s $5.33/gal. both are on track for the highest election day prices on record (not all-time highs).