Tropical Depression Two is on track to become Tropical Storm Bertha by Monday evening, with forecasters warning of heavy rain and storm surges across the Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts the system will strengthen into a tropical storm, though wind shear and dry air may limit its intensity.
The storm, currently located 105 miles south of Panama City, is moving northwest at 3 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. The NHC expects it to become Tropical Storm Bertha later Monday, marking the second named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. A tropical storm watch is in effect from the Ochlockonee River to the Mississippi/Alabama border, with a storm surge watch extending from the Alabama/Florida border to the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Formation and Forecast Path
Tropical Depression Two formed in the eastern Gulf on Sunday and is expected to track slowly northwest along the northern Gulf Coast over the next several days. The NHC’s latest advisory notes that the storm’s path remains uncertain beyond Monday, with forecasters emphasizing the next 24 to 48 hours as critical for determining its trajectory. If the depression encounters a temporary reduction in wind shear, it could intensify more rapidly and track farther west toward Texas,
said Alex DaSilva of AccuWeather, citing the risk of a westward shift.
Dr. Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger described the system as predominantly a rainmaker,
noting that northerly wind shear is keeping most of the storm’s convection over water. Right now, our forecast expects those conditions to prevent significant strengthening,
he said. The storm’s minimum central pressure is 1005 millibars.
Rainfall and Storm Surge Warnings
Heavy rainfall is expected across the Gulf Coast, with 2 to 4 inches of rain forecast through Friday, and isolated totals reaching 6 inches in some areas. The NHC warns that if the storm remains over the Gulf longer, the heaviest rain will stay closer to the coast before shifting westward. If the system stays weaker and moves inland sooner, the heaviest rain would spread farther inland across parts of the Southeast,
the FOX Forecast Center noted.
Storm surge watches are in effect for coastal areas from the Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi River mouth, with potential flooding risks of 2 to 4 feet. The NHC also issued a tropical storm watch for much of Florida’s Panhandle, where thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes are possible.
Expert Analysis and Uncertainty
Forecasters said Saharan dust and strong wind shear would likely prevent it from becoming a hurricane. The next 24 to 48 hours will be key as to where this storm will move later in the week,
DaSilva said, highlighting the volatility of the system.
FOX Weather emphasized the uncertainty in computer forecast models, noting that while the storm is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, the exact path remains unclear. There is still some uncertainty about Bertha's forecast track after it forms later Monday,
the outlet reported.
Impact on Local Communities
Residents along the Gulf Coast are bracing for the storm’s effects. The storm’s slow movement could prolong rainfall and flooding risks, particularly in areas already prone to waterlogging. Emergency management officials in Florida and Louisiana are monitoring the situation closely, with updates expected as the storm evolves.
As Tropical Depression Two approaches its potential transformation into Bertha, the focus remains on preparedness. With the NHC urging residents to stay informed, the coming days will determine the storm’s true impact on the Gulf Coast and beyond.
Sources: Tallahassee, FOX Weather.
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