Bitcoin rebounded above $65,000 today, spurred by President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, though market sentiment remains fragile. The surge extended to over $66,000 during Asian trading, coinciding with the annual presidential address to Congress. This represents a momentary reprieve for the leading cryptocurrency, which has faced selling pressure recently as investors have reduced positions in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The overall outlook for Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains uncertain, influenced by both macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions.
The market closely watches Trump’s stance on cryptocurrencies. Following his reelection in 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant rally, surpassing $126,000 in October of that year. This surge was fueled by the Trump administration’s crypto-friendly approach, with a stated goal of establishing the United States as the “world capital of cryptocurrencies.” However, market dynamics shifted after that peak, with geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties prompting investors to liquidate positions, demonstrating that Bitcoin is not yet widely considered a safe-haven asset, despite earlier assertions.
Trump’s Address and the Crypto Absence
Notably, Trump’s address on Tuesday, the longest State of the Union in U.S. History, made no mention of Bitcoin or other digital assets. This omission is surprising given the involvement of his children, including Donald Jr. And Eric Trump, in crypto initiatives like World Liberty Financial and various token launches. The president himself had repeatedly promised to make the U.S. A leader in the crypto space. According to a report by Yahoo Finance, the speech entirely ignored the crypto sector, focusing instead on issues like taxes, artificial intelligence, housing, and healthcare. The State of the Union address similarly addressed tariffs and inflation.
Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty
Beyond the lack of crypto discussion, Trump reiterated his intention to pursue tariffs, despite a recent setback at the Supreme Court which ruled against his emergency tariffs. He announced an initial replacement rate of 10%, later corrected to 15%, though official documents indicate the lower rate took effect without provisions for the increase. This situation has created chaos and uncertainty regarding trade policy, potentially impacting broader economic conditions and, investor sentiment towards risk assets like Bitcoin. The persistence of inflation also keeps the Federal Reserve from easing rates, adding to the economic headwinds.
Short-Term Bounce or Sustained Recovery?
The recent Bitcoin price increase may be coincidental, driven by typical “buy-the-dip” behavior, according to Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets. “The upward movement likely reflects bargain-hunting behavior following the prolonged sell-off,” Mauron stated. However, market sentiment remains subdued, and traders are seeking more convincing price levels before aggressively re-entering the market. Mauron believes the narrative will only shift with Bitcoin reaching $70,000.
Derivatives Market Signals Caution
Data from Deribit reveals strong demand for downside protection around the $58,000 level. Nearly $230 million in put options expiring on March 6 are concentrated in that area, indicating investor concerns about a potential decline. These concerns are amplified by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. Polymarket currently estimates a 37% probability of a U.S. Attack on Iran by March 7, and a 48% probability by March 15. Sean McNulty, Asia-Pacific derivatives trading head at FalconX, noted that “the massive put buying with a March 6 expiry reflects concerns over a U.S. Attack on Iran.”
The increased hedging activity suggests investors are bracing for potential market volatility stemming from geopolitical risks. This highlights the growing recognition that Bitcoin, despite its potential, is not immune to global events and macroeconomic pressures. The derivatives market is signaling a cautious outlook, even as the price experiences short-term gains.
The White House published information about the 2026 State of the Union address, but did not provide further details regarding the content of the speech.
Looking ahead, the market will be closely monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly the situation between the U.S. And Iran, as well as any further policy announcements from the Trump administration regarding trade and economic policy. The next key checkpoint will be the expiration of the put options on Deribit on March 6, which could provide further insight into investor sentiment and potential market direction.
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin’s recent performance? Share your insights and analysis in the comments below.
