2023-12-06 05:03:02
by Sara Gandolfi
The European Copernicus service confirms: the average global temperature this year exceeded that of the pre-industrial period by 1.46°. And in 2030 we will often go above 1.5°C
This time the data is certain and definitive. 2023 is the hottest year since the “fever” of planet Earth was measured, so far 1.46°C higher than the pre-industrial average of the period 1850-1900 and 0.13°C higher than the 2016 average, the hottest so far. The confirmation comes as the Dubai Climate Conference continues from the latest bulletin from the European Union-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, planes and weather stations across the globe. world. According to Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S «2023 had a record six months and two record seasons. November’s extraordinary global temperatures, including two days 2ºC warmer than pre-industrial levels, mean 2023 is the warmest year in recorded history.”
In an unbroken streak, November 2023 was also the warmest November on record globally, with an average surface air temperature of 14.22°C: 0.85°C above the 1991-2020 average for November and about 1.75°C warmer than an estimate of the November average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period.
Even the sea suffers from the heat. The average surface temperature for this November, in the geographic range between the 60th parallel South and the 60th North, was the highest ever recorded. The El Niño event continued in the equatorial Pacific, but, the only almost positive news, with anomalies lower than those reached at this time of year in the 2015 event.
This autumn, the average European temperature was 10.96°C, which is 1.43°C above average. This made the northern autumn of 2023 the second warmest on record, just 0.03°C colder than autumn 2020. «As long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to increase we cannot expect different results from those seen this year . Temperatures will continue to rise, as will the impacts of heat waves and droughts. Reaching net zero as soon as possible is an effective way to manage our climate risks”, commented Furthermore, the director of C3S, Carlo Buontempo.
Disheartening signals are also arriving from COP28 in Dubai. Negotiators are developing the first drafts of the Global Stocktake declaration, the assessment of what has been done so far to combat climate change and the much that still remains to be done. Meanwhile, science is pouring out alarming data. According to the prestigious Global Carbon project, a group that brings together over 90 universities and research institutes around the world, it is “now inevitable” that the 1.5°C global warming threshold will be exceeded “constantly for several years” and there there is a 50% chance of this happening in just seven years.
On the other hand, emissions of climate-changing gases do not stop. In 2023 the total will reach 40.9 billion tonnes (GtCO2). Emissions from international aviation alone increased by 28.2% in one year. Polluter no. 1 remains coal, which represents 41% of global emissions and whose use has increased, especially in China and India, while it has decreased drastically in the European Union and the USA, which however replace it with gas. Oil emissions are also increasing (32% of the total). The “boom” in emissions of the two fastest developing economies in the world is impressive: India (+8.2% compared to 2022) and China (+4%).
Another report, produced by Net Zero Tracker, recalls that only 13% of countries with net zero emissions targets (19 out of 151) have at least a commitment to phase out coal, oil or gas. And these countries represent just 7% of global emissions. 94% of oil-producing countries have no commitment to phasing out oil exploration, and 95% have no commitment to gas exploration. Saudi Arabia remains opposed to any agreement to limit fossil fuels. A record number of 2,500 industry lobbyists registered at COP28.
Finally, a report from Climate Analytics states that carbon capture and storage (CCS), a technology on which the United States is focusing heavily, “could release a bomb of 86 billion more tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere between 2020 and 2050” by calculating the additional emissions that could result from the continued use of fossil fuels justified by the choice of CCS.
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December 6, 2023 (modified December 6, 2023 | 04:12)
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