The ending week has become the most alarming for the residents of Donbass since the beginning of 2015. Accusing Ukraine of preparing a “deep breakthrough” on their territory, the leaders of the self-proclaimed LPR and DPR announced on Friday an emergency evacuation of civilians to the Rostov region. The Russian authorities guaranteed them temporary shelter, hot meals and medical care, as well as payment of 10,000 rubles each. In Kiev, plans for any attacks are denied, calling on international partners to condemn “Russian provocations” in the Donbass. Those with such statements are already actively speaking out, in parallel preparing for the influx of refugees. The Polish authorities, for example, have already announced their readiness not only to receive Ukrainians, but also to treat the wounded as a result of hypothetical hostilities.
Evacuation to the sound of a siren
On Friday, due to a sharp increase in shelling, the authorities of the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR announced a mass evacuation of civilians to Russia. Commenting on the decision, the head of the LPR, Leonid Pasechnik, described the threat as follows: “The Ukrainian aggressor plans not only to carry out provocations on the line of contact, but also to organize a deep breakthrough deep into the territory of our republic.”
In a similar appeal, the head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, said that citizens, in agreement with the Russian authorities, would be transferred to the Rostov region. First of all, women, children and the elderly are subject to evacuation.
In the afternoon, a siren sounded in Donetsk – the warning system was tested in case of massive shelling. Announcements appeared in various parts of the city indicating the time and collection point for departure to safe areas.
A resident of Donetsk, who works in the field of education and insisted on anonymity, told Kommersant that educational institutions in the city canceled classes immediately after Denis Pushilin’s speech.
According to the interlocutor of Kommersant, the situation developed rapidly and this frightened many. “When I walked home from work at 4:00 pm, everything was still calm. And at 18:00 the situation was already terrible: traffic jams, queues at gas stations and at ATMs, an absolute misunderstanding of what was happening, ”she said.
There were reports of interruptions in mobile communications in Donetsk.
And at 19:00 (the time coincides with Moscow), a powerful explosion thundered in the city, which was heard by almost the entire city. The car of Denis Sinenkov, head of the People’s Militia of the DPR, exploded, parked near the government building. Commenting on the incident, the authorities urged citizens to “keep calm, be vigilant, and also exclude movement around the city to the maximum.” And Denis Pushilin stated: we are talking about sabotage as part of the preparation of the Ukrainian side for an offensive.
“The situation is aggravating every day, today there were several attempts by Ukrainian formations to carry out sabotage, shelling is intensifying,” Natalya Nikonorova, head of the DPR Foreign Ministry, described the situation in a conversation with Kommersant. “Therefore, it is necessary to try to ensure the safety of children, women, the elderly and sick people “.
About 700,000 people are planned to be evacuated from the republic (the figure was not given in the LPR).
At first, the Kremlin seemed to greet the news of the evacuation with surprise. “I don’t know what’s going on at Pushilin’s… I don’t know what’s going on there,” Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. And he admitted that he did not know with whom the republics coordinated their decision. However, very soon he told some details – for example, that “refugees will be provided with hot meals and everything necessary, including medical care,” and also that they will be given (in connection with the order of President Vladimir Putin) 10 thousand rubles .
Against the same background, the western neighbors of Ukraine also reported about the expectation of an influx of refugees. So, for the worst scenarios – “the evacuation of a large number of citizens from Ukraine, the reception of citizens and even the treatment of the wounded” – Poland began to prepare. This was announced on Friday by Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. And European Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas, in an interview with Die Welt, said: “According to estimates (in the EU.— “b”), may arrive (from Ukraine.— “b”) from 20,000 to more than 1 million refugees.”
“Happiness” under fire
The situation on the demarcation line really looks depressing. The OSCE monitoring mission operating in the region stated: in total, 591 violations of the ceasefire regime were recorded in the territories of the LPR and DPR on Thursday (on Wednesday – 153). The final data for Friday will not be significantly more optimistic.
With the fact that “anomalous events are being recorded that are noticeably different from what has happened since the beginning of the year,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov agreed on Friday. According to him, shelling went along the entire line of contact from Stanytsia Luhanska to Shirokino, the enemy used, among other things, mortars and grenade launchers, fired from tanks and anti-tank missile systems. At the same time, the Ukrainian military reported that a UN humanitarian convoy at the Shchastye checkpoint in the Luhansk region came under fire.
The authorities of the republics of Donbass also reported: on Friday, the Ukrainian military fired from tanks around the city of Gorlovka (DPR), as well as from artillery pieces and mortars – the settlements of Zholobok, Raevka and Veselaya Gora (LPR). As Eduard Basurin, a representative of the People’s Militia of the DPR, said on the Russia 1 TV channel, about 200 shells and mines were fired at the DPR in the morning, grenade launchers and small arms were also used. “But the main danger was different: there were three attempts to carry out sabotage – in Yelenovka and two in Gorlovka,” he said. And according to the People’s Militia of the LPR, groups of special forces of the Ukrainian army arrived at the points of Stanitsa Luganskaya, Shchastia and Krymskoye (under the control of Kiev) – to “increase sniper activity” and “carry out sabotage.”
Meanwhile, in the evening, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, via Facebook, appealed to residents of the territories not controlled by Kiev with an appeal not to believe the rumors about the allegedly impending offensive of the Ukrainian army. In addition, he assured: “Information about sabotage groups from the joint forces, allegedly planning to blow up chlorine at the sewage treatment plant in Gorlovka, is not true.”
“We observe how the Russian Federation is launching a massive disinformation campaign, increasing the number of shelling of Ukrainian positions and civilian infrastructure with weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements, and escalating the security situation,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said. “We call on the international community – foreign states and international organizations – immediately condemn the provocations of Russia and its occupying administrations in the Donbas, which hinder the process of a political and diplomatic settlement.” “We are completely devoted exclusively to a diplomatic settlement,” Dmitry Kuleba, the head of the department, confirmed on Twitter.
Recall that the Ukrainian authorities refuse to conduct a direct dialogue with the leaders of the DPR and LPR (which Moscow insists on), considering it expedient only to interact with the Russian Federation. Meanwhile, a Kommersant interlocutor close to the office of the President of Ukraine said that on February 17 there were definitely no contacts between the head of the office, Andriy Yermak, and his Russian partner in the Normandy format, deputy head of the presidential administration, Dmitry Kozak. He found it difficult to answer the question whether there were attempts to talk on Friday: “I don’t know, Andriy Yermak is not in Kiev now.” At the same time, the interlocutor confidently said that the leaders of Ukraine and Russia definitely did not call each other.
Sources of Kommersant in Russian government agencies dealing with the Donbass problem said that they did not know anything about contacts between Russian and Ukrainian high-ranking negotiators.
At the same time, according to one of them, the Ukrainian side is trying in various ways, including through Western leaders, to get in touch with the Russian president. Another interlocutor, when asked by Kommersant whether Mr. Yermak called Mr. Kozak, answered: “He should not call Kozak, but Pushilin.” In response to a request from Kommersant to assess whether there is a chance of a de-escalation of the situation in Donbass, he said: “There is always a chance.”
Whether there is a chance or not may become clear soon. Kiev expects that an extraordinary meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on Donbass will be held on February 19 (the scheduled meeting was to be held on March 1-2). Moscow has already expressed its readiness to take part in it if this meeting is agreed upon by Ukraine and the republics of Donbass. In such a scenario, this will be the very direct dialogue that both the unrecognized DPR and LPR and Russia speak of as necessary.
“Very disturbing news”
On Friday, however, there were no signs of a quick de-escalation. “What is happening in the Donbass is very disturbing news,” said Dmitry Peskov. Nevertheless, the Kremlin spokesman said that despite the growing tension, he and Vladimir Putin are sleeping “calmly but sensitively.”
Meanwhile, the word “calm” is now in no way suitable for Western diplomats. On Friday, they discussed the Ukrainian issue at several large venues at once.
Firstly, within the framework of the Munich Security Conference (MCC) that has just started, in which the Russian Federation decided not to participate. “Everything we see, including the last 24-48 hours, is part of the scenario (RF.— “b”), which is already being played out, to create false provocations, in order to later respond to these provocations and, as a result, commit a new aggression against Ukraine,” US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken expressed confidence speaking at the IBC. A day earlier, he admitted that Moscow could stage a provocation “using chemical weapons” and that Russia’s plans include an attack on Kiev. Also during the conference, German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock threatened Russia with unprecedented sanctions, indicating that Berlin was “determined” to impose them in case of further escalation.
Secondly, the “extraordinary military activity” of the Russian Federation near the borders of Ukraine was discussed on Friday in Vienna at a joint meeting of two OSCE bodies – the Permanent Council and the Forum for Security Cooperation. Kiev requested this meeting, referring to the fact that the Russian Federation, in its opinion, violates the 2011 Vienna Document signed by the majority of OSCE members. Representatives of Russia were not present at the meeting.
“Dear colleagues, this is the largest military mobilization in Europe since the Second World War,” US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter described the situation. He suggested that we are talking about 169-190 thousand Russian troops near the border with Ukraine, while on January 30 there were 100 thousand of them. “We know that Russia intends to create a pretext to justify the invasion of Ukraine,” the diplomat said. , citing US government sources. In the evening, the State Department told the RIA Novosti agency that reports of evacuations and explosions in the Donbass are precisely the pretexts for launching a Russian “false flag” operation.
Discussions continue in the course of bilateral contacts.
On Friday, US and Russian Defense Ministers Lloyd Austin and Sergei Shoigu spoke by phone. In addition, a meeting between Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is being agreed to further discuss Russian demands for security guarantees in Europe and the situation around Ukraine. Negotiations are due next week. “We will make sure that everything is fair,” Mr. Lavrov shared his plans in an interview with RT, speaking about security guarantees.
“At least, the ‘concepts’ must be respected at the international level as well,” the minister said, appealing in absentia to Washington and its allies.