Canada’s population experienced a rare decline in the final months of 2025, a shift largely attributed to a significant drop in the number of non-permanent residents, according to estimates released by Statistics Canada on March 18, 2026. The country’s population stood at 41,472,081 on January 1, 2026, marking a decrease of 103,504 people – a 0.2% drop – between October 1, 2025, and January 1, 2026. This marks the first annual population decline for Canada, a nation historically reliant on immigration for growth.
The decrease is primarily driven by a reduction of over 171,000 non-permanent residents during that same three-month period, Statistics Canada reported. This decline in non-permanent residents is the principal factor behind the quarterly demographic shift. The data signals a potential turning point in Canada’s population trajectory, raising questions about future growth and economic impacts.
Provinces experiencing the most pronounced population decreases during this period included British Columbia, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Ontario. Even as overall immigration continues, the pace has slowed. The number of permanent immigrants entering Canada in the fourth quarter of 2025 was approximately 83,000, representing a 19.6% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, according to the latest data. This slowdown in permanent immigration adds to the overall population contraction.
Shifting Immigration Patterns
Despite the overall decline in immigration numbers, Ontario remains the most popular destination for newcomers to Canada, welcoming 42% of all new permanent residents in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, Quebec stands out as an exception to the broader trend, having received more new immigrants – 13,361 – in the fourth quarter of 2025 than in the same period of the previous year (12,496), as noted by Statistics Canada.
The federal government’s planned adjustments to immigration levels are likely contributing to these shifts. The 2026 Immigration Levels Plan calls for a continued reduction in the number of temporary foreign workers and international students over the next three years, following a period of rapid growth that peaked in the fall of 2024. This policy change aims to address concerns about the strain on housing, healthcare, and other social services.
Natural Decrease and Interprovincial Migration
Adding to the population decline, Canada experienced a natural decrease – more deaths than births – of 781 people during the three-month period. This continues a long-term trend of declining natural population growth, with immigration historically offsetting this demographic challenge. The combination of fewer non-permanent residents, a slowdown in permanent immigration, and a natural decrease has created a unique demographic situation for Canada.
Looking at internal migration patterns, Alberta continues to be the most attractive destination for Canadians moving between provinces, marking its 14th consecutive quarter as the top choice. Approximately 3,700 people moved to Alberta from other parts of Canada in the fourth quarter of 2025. This interprovincial migration suggests a regional shift in population distribution within the country.
L’accroissement naturel de la population a diminué de 781 personnes au cours des trois derniers mois de 2025, ce qui signifie qu’il y a eu plus de décès que de naissances. (Photo d’archives)
Photo : Radio-Canada / Ivanoh Demers
Statistics Canada cautions that these estimates should be interpreted with some caution. A significant increase in the number of applications for work and study permit renewals could lead to larger demographic fluctuations in the coming months. The agency will continue to monitor these trends and provide updated estimates as more data becomes available.
The recent slowdown in immigration and the first population decline in recent history underscore the complex demographic challenges facing Canada. Understanding these trends is crucial for policymakers as they develop strategies to support economic growth and social well-being. Further data releases from Statistics Canada, scheduled for later in 2026, will provide a more comprehensive picture of Canada’s evolving population dynamics.
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