China’s Renewable Energy Surge: A Climate Win Driven by Self-Interest
Despite the lackluster outcome anticipated from COP30, a significant shift is underway in the global fight against climate change, led not by international agreements, but by China’s aggressive embrace of renewable energy.
A photovoltaic power station in Binzhou City, Shandong province, on November 18, 2025, exemplifies this growing trend. (Costfoto / NurPhoto via Getty Images)
While the COP30 climate negotiations in Belém, Brazil, have generated some buzz, it’s not due to breakthroughs at the summit itself. Since its inception in 1992, the conference has served as a foundation for international climate treaties, but has increasingly become dominated by fossil fuel lobbyists and largely ignored by major industrial nations. This year, the United States is boycotting the event, and expectations for meaningful emissions reductions are low.
The real source of optimism emerging from Belém is the growing recognition – highlighted in a widely circulated report by the energy think tank Ember – that China is rapidly outpacing both the United States and the European Union in clean energy technology and industries. China is currently deploying more than twice as much renewable capacity—solar and wind—as the rest of the world combined. Consequently, China’s carbon emissions remained flat last year and are projected to fall this year, while global emissions reached record highs.
China’s success isn’t rooted in international pressure or moral appeals, but in pragmatic self-interest. According to one analyst, “China recognizes that the whole system has to be reconfigured.” Clean energy sources like solar and wind are now the most affordable energy options globally, and mass production makes clean technology accessible everywhere. China has “broken with the fossil fuel model of development even though its economy is full of challenges too, like many in the world right now. But it sees a new kind of development based on environmental stability.”
Over the past decade, China has simultaneously reduced its domestic emissions and promoted cleaner energy solutions abroad through the export of its clean energy technology, as reported by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CRECA), a Helsinki-based think tank. China’s current renewable energy figures are exceeding its own targets, poised to surpass the EU—long considered a leader in climate protection. This success stems from similar incentives and policies that Germany and other European nations implemented in the early 2000s, when they spearheaded innovation and growth in renewables.
“China is the reason why the battle against global warming appears more winnable than ever before,” observes Jonas Waack of the German daily Tageszeitung. “At the center of the world’s decarbonization now stands China, and not because ever more governments want to protect the climate but rather because there is no more secure route to prosperity.”
China’s solar production has increased fourteenfold in the last decade, now dominating the global market. The nation is installing enough wind and solar capacity each week to equal five large nuclear power stations. In 2024 alone, China added four times more solar generation capacity than the EU and six times more wind power. China surpassed its 2030 targets six years ahead of schedule by installing a massive 1,200 GW of wind and solar capacity in 2024, alongside exceeding expectations in sustainable forest management. By 2030, non-fossil fuels are projected to account for 25 percent of China’s energy consumption—significantly higher than the US, which is moving in the opposite direction, but still trailing the EU, which has already exceeded that threshold.
While China remains the world’s largest consumer of coal, its demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel stabilized last year, falling 2.5 percent below 2021 levels, according to the International Energy Agency. The IEA attributes this shift to “structural shifts,” particularly electrification, with China’s electrification rate reaching approximately 30 percent of final energy use—considerably higher than that of the United States and the European Union. Currently, half of all car sales in China are electric, driven by domestic policies including incentives and trade-in programs.
Furthermore, China is capturing a market that Europe once hoped to dominate. The nation controls 86 percent of global module production and virtually the entire supply chain for essential components. On the electric vehicle (EV) market, China’s dominance is nearly as pronounced, controlling three-quarters of the sector and surpassing Tesla in 2023. Its abundant reserves of rare earth metals—a crucial component of battery storage—give it a further advantage, as does its technology for producing low-emission hydrogen. Moreover, China is investing heavily in clean energy projects in over 50 countries, accelerating the energy transition worldwide.
China’s progress is particularly encouraging given its status as the world’s largest emitter of carbon gases—accounting for 90 percent of the growth in CO2 emissions since 2015. Today, China’s share of total emissions is 32 percent, far exceeding that of the US (13 percent), India (8 percent), and the EU (6 percent).
This investment in a renewable-centered future is motivated by more than just financial gains, according to Belinda Schäpe of CRECA. While the economic benefits are substantial—with clean tech already contributing 10 percent to China’s GDP and potentially doubling soon—energy security also plays a critical role. China remains a major importer of fossil fuels, including crude oil, coal, and natural gas, with Russia among its top oil suppliers. However, Schäpe argues that environmental considerations are not merely superficial: China is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including heat waves and floods, and its urban centers are grappling with severe air pollution.
Despite its leadership, China could further solidify its role as the “defender of international cooperation on climate change” that it recently proclaimed. It continues to invest heavily in coal, and its demand for oil is increasing for petrochemical purposes. Its emissions remain more than twice those of the United States, and it has not abandoned its growth-oriented economic model. The 2035 targets for the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter are also remarkably conservative—a 7 to 10 percent reduction from peak emissions, far short of the 30 percent drop needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Beijing’s 2060 net-zero goal is similarly unambitious, lagging behind Germany’s 2045 target and falling short of what is required to avert climate catastrophe.
Nevertheless, China is currently responsible for maintaining the global momentum at a time when climate protection is faltering. China’s achievements and forward-thinking approach serve as a humbling reminder to Europe and North America. The benefits of a clean energy transformation have been well-documented for over a decade, with experts worldwide outlining and validating their advantages. President Joe Biden recognized this and acted accordingly, positioning the United States at the forefront of global climate protection. However, many European political leaders, while aware of the benefits, have been outmaneuvered by the fossil fuel and nuclear industries, alongside the rise of right-wing populism. The inaction of figures like Germany’s Angela Merkel and Friedrich Merz, who understand the imperative and profitability of a sweeping energy transition but lack the courage to advocate for it, is a damning indictment. In the European Parliament, German Christian Democrats are aligning with far-right factions to dismantle the European Green Deal—in the name of free market principles.
China, in many respects, is not a nation to be emulated. However, it has demonstrably assessed the available research and experience and concluded that it stands to gain more than it loses from transforming its economy. Europe and the United States have relinquished their leadership in reshaping the world’s energy supply, a development that bodes ill for the future of liberal democracy.
