In a high-stakes gathering in Jakarta, diplomats and policy experts have signaled a shifting center of gravity in global diplomacy, asserting that China’s role in promoting peace is increasingly tied to its ability to mobilize the “middle powers” of the Global South. The discussion, held on April 14, highlighted a growing trend where non-Western nations are no longer merely followers in a bipolar struggle but are actively shaping a multipolar world order.
The forum, organized by the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI), centered on the Middle Powers Conference. Participants argued that China is acting as a primary catalyst for the Global South, leveraging its economic weight and diplomatic networks to mediate conflicts that have long been the sole purview of Western powers. This shift is most evident in the Middle East, where traditional diplomatic channels are being supplemented by a network of regional mediators backed by Beijing.
Nasim Zehra, an Islamabad-based journalist and policy analyst, noted that China has been actively supporting Pakistan in its efforts to facilitate communication between the United States, and Iran. According to Zehra, this mediation is part of a broader strategy to resolve the ongoing Middle East conflict, citing frequent diplomatic contact between Islamabad and Washington, as well as high-level visits by Pakistan’s foreign minister to China.
The strategy, Zehra suggested, is not unique to Pakistan. Other “middle powers”—including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt—are playing similar roles, creating a layered approach to diplomacy where regional actors handle the granular negotiations while China provides the broader geopolitical scaffolding.
The blurring of economics and national security
A recurring theme at the conference was the erosion of the boundary between trade and defense. Jonathan Berkshire Miller, co-founder of the Canada-based Pendulum Geopolitical Advisory, argued that the modern state no longer views business and diplomacy as separate silos. In his view, a trade agreement is rarely just about commerce; it is often a precursor to deeper security and defense cooperation.
“The reality is now those sectors are blurred. People do not distinguish between the economic tools and the national security and defense tools,” Miller said.
This blurring is evident in the infrastructure projects across Southeast Asia and Africa, where Chinese investment often leads to long-term strategic partnerships. For the Global South, this integration provides a hedge against reliance on a single superpower, while for Beijing, it cements its position as an indispensable partner in regional stability.
Institutionalizing the multipolar order
The conversation in Jakarta shifted toward how these middle powers can formalize their influence. Dino Patti Djalal, founder and chairman of the FPCI, pointed to the expansion of BRICS as a critical mechanism for reshaping the world order. Djalal suggested that when middle powers join such blocs, they empower the group to play a more decisive role in repairing a multilateral system that many feel has become dysfunctional.
However, Djalal cautioned that this transition is not automatic. He noted that while the potential for middle powers to resolve conflicts is high, their leadership role in the global system is not preordained and will require active, coordinated effort.
Haroldo Ramanzini Jr, an associate professor at the University of Brasilia, emphasized that a world lacking multilaterally agreed-upon rules is inherently insecure. He advocated for a “non-selective” international order where the voices of the Global South are not just heard but are foundational to the rules of engagement.
To achieve this, Ramanzini urged stronger ties between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the MERCOSUR bloc in South America. He argued that such inter-regional cooperation would amplify existing Global South initiatives, such as:
- India’s Global Biofuels Alliance: Launched during the G20 Summit in New Delhi to accelerate the deployment of sustainable fuels.
- Brazil’s Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty: A flagship initiative under Brazil’s G20 presidency aimed at systemic social reform.
Key Regional Frameworks for Cooperation
Gareth Evans, a former Australian foreign minister, highlighted that the architecture for this new cooperation already exists. He pointed to a series of treaties and organizations that prioritize common interests over ideological alignment.
| Organization/Treaty | Primary Focus | Strategic Role |
|---|---|---|
| ASEAN | Southeast Asian Stability | Regional neutrality and trade |
| MERCOSUR | South American Integration | Inter-regional trade and politics |
| APEC | Asia-Pacific Economy | Economic liberalization |
| RCEP / CPTPP | Trade Agreements | Standardizing regional commerce |
The path toward a new multilateralism
The consensus among the forum’s participants was that the era of a single dominant superpower is giving way to a more complex, fragmented, yet potentially more representative system. The ability of China to position itself as a champion of the Global South allows it to project influence not through coercion, but through the alignment of national interests among middle powers.
The challenge remaining is whether these disparate regional blocs—from the jungles of Indonesia to the plains of Brazil—can synchronize their efforts to create a stable, rule-based order that prevents the multipolar world from sliding into chaotic competition.
As these diplomatic efforts continue, the next major checkpoint for these initiatives will be the upcoming G20 summits and BRICS expansions, where the practical application of these “middle power” strategies will be tested in real-time policy negotiations.
Do you believe middle powers can effectively mediate global conflicts without the involvement of traditional superpowers? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
