Severe Weather Threatens Mexico This Weekend: Rain, Wind, and Sub-Freezing Temperatures Expected
A powerful combination of weather systems is poised to bring significant disruptions to Mexico this weekend, with the National Weather Service (SMN) forecasting rain, strong winds, and dangerously low temperatures across multiple regions.
Mexico City – The National Weather Service (SMN) issued warnings on Thursday, February 13, 2026, detailing a challenging weather outlook for the coming weekend. A convergence of cold front 34, a polar trough, and the influence of jet streams will create hazardous conditions, particularly in the north, northeast, and eastern parts of the country.
Weekend Weather Breakdown: Saturday, February 14th
Saturday will see the initial impact of these systems. Isolated rain (0.1 to 5 mm) is predicted for Chihuahua, Coahuila, Puebla, and Veracruz. However, the most significant threat will be the strong winds. The SMN anticipates wind gusts reaching 60 to 80 km/h in Chihuahua, Durango, Coahuila, and Nuevo León. Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, and San Luis Potosí are forecast to experience gusts of 50 to 70 km/h, while Jalisco and Guanajuato could see winds between 40 and 60 km/h. A south wind is expected in Tamaulipas and Veracruz, with gusts of 30 to 50 km/h along the Gulf of California, Baja California Sur, Sonora, and Sinaloa.
Coastal areas will also be affected, with waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters expected on the western coast of Baja California and the coast of Tamaulipas. Temperatures will present a stark contrast, with highs reaching 40 to 45 °C in Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas, while overnight lows will plummet. The mountains of Chihuahua and Durango are bracing for temperatures between -10 to -5 °C with the risk of frost. Frost is also anticipated in the mountains of Sonora, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and other northern and central states, where temperatures will fall to -5 to 0 °C. Higher elevations in the center and east will see lows between 0 and 5 °C.
Sunday, February 15th: Intensifying Conditions
Sunday is expected to bring more intense rainfall, particularly in the east and southeast. Heavy rain (25 to 50 mm) is forecast for Puebla, Veracruz, and Oaxaca, with showers expected in Tabasco and Chiapas. Isolated rain is also possible in Querétaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, and Guerrero.
Wind conditions will remain hazardous, with gusts of 50 to 70 km/h predicted for Coahuila and Nuevo León. A strong north wind is expected in Tamaulipas, Veracruz, and the Tehuantepec isthmus, while Baja California, Sonora, and the Yucatán Peninsula could experience gusts of 40 to 60 km/h. Coastal hazards will persist, with waves of 1.5 to 2.5 meters anticipated in Baja California and along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Maximum temperatures will remain high in Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas (40 to 45 °C), and in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, and Veracruz (35 to 40 °C).
Overnight lows on Sunday into Monday will be particularly frigid. The mountains of Chihuahua and Durango are again forecast to experience temperatures between -10 to -5 °C with frost, while the mountains of Baja California, Sonora, and Zacatecas will see temperatures fall to -5 to 0 °C. Mountain ranges in the north, center, and east will experience lows between 0 and 5 °C.
Looking Ahead: Monday’s Forecast and New Front
The SMN reports that a new cold front is approaching Baja California on Monday, bringing with it the potential for showers and strong winds in the northwest. Simultaneously, cold front 34 will continue to generate rainfall in the east and southeast. This complex interplay of weather systems will maintain a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast beyond the weekend.
These systems will create significant contrasts across the country, with cold mornings and nights in the north and center, juxtaposed with hot afternoons in much of the country. Residents are urged to stay informed and take necessary precautions to protect themselves from the elements.
