The short Russian-American “détente” after the December talks between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden has ended. The US and NATO responded to the Kremlin’s ultimatum. Written, as required by Sergei Lavrov and his deputy Sergei Ryabkov.
Khrushchev-Biden Menu
According to the US Secretary of State, the Biden administration put down on paper essentially the same considerations that Tony Blinken shared with the Russian Foreign Minister last week in Geneva. NATO did the same. The answer was conveyed to Russian diplomats on Tuesday at Smolenskaya Square by US Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan.
First, Moscow will not have any right to decide which country will join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the future and which will not. That is (quite predictably), no one is going to cancel the declaration of the NATO summit in Bucharest, which promised Ukraine and Georgia membership in the alliance in 2008.
Secondly, there will be no reduction in the presence of some allies (Americans and Western Europeans) on the territory of other allies (the countries of Central Europe and the Baltics). This point was particularly illustrated by Secretary of State Blinken’s announcement that 8,500 US troops were ready to be redeployed to NATO’s eastern flank in case Putin starts hostilities against Ukraine. Britain announced that it would send 1,000 of its troops to Eastern Europe without any preconditions at all.
Third, as in earlier talks with Lavrov and Ryabkov, the Biden administration is offering Moscow a menu traditional since Khrushchev’s time: disarmament and confidence-building measures to avoid military incidents. According to Blinken, Washington is ready to start a dialogue on the condition of “de-escalation of the situation” (read – the beginning of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the borders of Ukraine) and a change in the tone of Moscow’s statements (read – “Stop threatening us!”). The Secretary of State specifically noted that both responses to Moscow were coordinated with both Ukraine and NATO allies. In addition, Blinken said, the texts of the responses would not be made public to “preserve space for diplomacy,” a clear nod to the Kremlin’s scandalous publication in December of its own draft treaty on “Russian security guarantees.”
Will there be a leak from the Kremlin?
In Moscow, of course, they understood that they would receive a refusal for the demands of “guarantees”. They also had to calculate that the Americans, most likely, would not publish their answer. What will be Putin’s next steps? This can be judged, among other things, by whether the text of the Washington message will soon be at the disposal of one of the state media or “attached” publications such as Kommersant or Izvestia? And, if it turns out, is it in whole or in fragments? After Blinken’s press conference, many are asking these questions. The leak will look like a slap in the face to the Americans. And the quotes chosen from the message, if desired, can be interpreted in any way, including as “the official announcement by America of a new cold war against Russia.”
In reality, the Kremlin does not have many options for action. A full-scale military invasion is in principle possible, but it will cost Moscow much more than the first stage of the war in 2014-2015. It’s not even that Ukraine’s resistance will be much fiercer and more professional than eight years ago, and international sanctions will be much more painful. In the end, judging by the position of the same Germany, they may well not affect the Russian energy sector and the work of the international electronic banking exchange system SWIFT.
A full-scale war will silence even the most active “understanders of Russia” in the European Union. Plus, it isolates Putin personally much more densely than before. But he came out of isolation only last year – thanks to Biden’s invitation to the June summit in the same Geneva.
Options for Putin
With all this, say: “Sorry, I did not calculate the consequences!” and withdraw troops Putin can not. It will look stupid and helpless. But “to take under protection from Ukrainian national radicals” the so-called “LPR” and “DPR” – that is, in fact, to legalize the Russian military presence in Lugansk, Donetsk and around – is quite realistic. And even without the official recognition of the “republics”. After all, it would cut off the path to further pressure on Ukraine in order to revise its state structure and preserve the influence of pro-Moscow forces in the country.
The transformation of these territories into a Russian protectorate without official status would be much more profitable from the point of view of the Kremlin. For starters, it is not entirely clear whether such an action should be considered an “invasion” and whether sanctions should be imposed. Many Europeans will be in favor of not counting. It is quite possible that they will propose new negotiations between Moscow and Kiev through the mediation of one of the retired giants of European politics – the same Angela Merkel (Angela Merkel), if, of course, she agrees. And then Moscow will be able to demand from Kiev a new agreement, in exchange for the Minsk agreements, in which Ukraine’s obligations will be clearly spelled out, and they will need to be implemented quickly and unilaterally.
The Kremlin has already ordered the State Duma deputies to carry out propaganda preparation of public opinion. They are preparing an agreement on the recognition of the “LNR” and “DNR” and loudly demand the supply of weapons to Luhansk and Donetsk.
If the decision to “save the Russians in Donbass” is made, then it can be, say, accompanied by a demonstrative withdrawal from the Russia-NATO Founding Act and/or deployment of a couple of additional missile battalions in the Kaliningrad region. And after that, calmly assure the Russians that the Kremlin responded to the insidious West with dignity and ensured the security of the country.
Yes, of course, additional allied contingents will be deployed in the Baltics, Poland, and Romania. Yes, sanctions will still be introduced, albeit not so terrible. But after some time, there will still be hope to restart the “detente” and talk with Biden about disarmament and confidence building measures. Moreover, Western Europeans will always support Washington in this.
“Black Swan” in Moscow
But this is a risky scenario. Ukraine may refuse to conduct new negotiations with Moscow. Congress in this case is quite capable of adopting much more painful sanctions than those threatened by the Democrats today. Especially if in November the majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate will pass, as expected, to the Republicans. And on its western borders, in this case, Russia will receive a reinforced NATO grouping for a long time. Moreover, as a result of the ultimatums, Russia today is dealing with an alliance in which the influence of its main opponents – the countries of Central Europe and the Baltics – has become much stronger.
It is unlikely that Putin will do anything before the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Beijing on February 4th. And if there is a meeting with the new German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, then it will take time to negotiate with him. But the Kremlin cannot endlessly delay the answer to the United States. It is not long to wait for the outcome of the current crisis. Will a new one replace it?
Author: Konstantin Eggert is a Russian journalist, author of a weekly column on DW and an interview project for DW “vTRENDde”. Konstantin Eggert on Facebook: Konstantin Eggert, on Telegram: Oberleutnant_Eggert
The comment expresses the personal opinion of the author. It may not coincide with the opinion of the Russian editors and Deutsche Welle in general.
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