The decisive actors in the Ukraine conflict are the USA, NATO and Russia, not the EU. Even if the rhetoric in some EU countries gives the impression that it is different. Internally divided, the united Europe is too vulnerable to intervene too much in Ukraine. What is particularly damaging to the EU at a moment like this, when one may be on the verge of war, is the dissent over the rule of law, financial policy and refugee quotas. But broken acceptance promises are just as important. Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Albania are on hold for long-term accession candidates. Ethnic nationalism has long since reawakened in Southeastern Europe, embodied for example by the Serb leader Milorad Dodik in Bosnia. Russia will not stand by when it comes to a departure from the EU in the Balkans, but rather wants to regain the influence it once had there.
The fact that Turkey remains the gatekeeper against migrants pushing into core Europe strengthens President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is pursuing his own Russia policy and knows very well that one of Europe’s greatest dilemmas remains migration. Despite the crisis caused by the dramatic number of refugees in 2015, the EU was not able to decide on a coordinated, humane course. Poland remains one of the biggest cross drivers, rejecting immigration quotas, but now demanding solidarity from the EU in view of the chaos on the border with Belarus. It is worrying how much of the European public tolerates or accepts illegal pushbacks and abuse of asylum seekers, whether in camps in Libya or on the beaches of Greece. This reflects the growing influence of xenophobic right-wing populists and the fatal normality of nationalist politics reminiscent of the Europe of 1914.
If, in a world of Trump clones, Europeans don’t stand up for democratic and humanitarian values - who will? They cannot hope for Great Britain. The United Kingdom is no longer a reliable friend, but under Boris Johnson a nuisance from the sidelines that feels closer to the USA than continental Europe. Defense Minister Ben Wallace is using the interlinked crises in Belarus and Ukraine to advance the Brexit agenda and to shine with arms deliveries to Kiev. Europe is going through an age of instability, also because events occurred that were never expected. Who foresaw that Donald Trump would try to blow up what a US president like Franklin D. Roosevelt once called the “arsenal of democracy”? Trump could try again. The fact that the EU is not a beacon for the governments in Budapest or Warsaw also has to do with the fact that they are expecting the next transatlantic break if the US Democrats lose the White House again in 2024.
And what about the EU leading power, France? Emmanuel Macron faces a bitter election campaign against the extreme right attacking from two camps. Macron’s idea of strategic autonomy for the EU seemed to point a promising way into the future. Only with this he found as little attention in his own country as in the European neighborhood.
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