Footage of a handcuffed Nicolás Maduro being escorted to a Brooklyn detention center is sending shockwaves through Havana.
“Cuba is going to be something we’ll end up talking about,” President Donald Trump said just hours after the Jan. 3, 2026, operation to seize the Venezuelan president, according to reports. Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed the warning: “If I lived in Havana and I was in the government, I’d be concerned.”
The arrest signals a dramatic shift in Washington’s relationship with Cuba, moving beyond the “Cuban Thaw” initiated by Barack Obama and the less-restrictive sanctions of Joe Biden. The Trump administration appears to be pursuing a policy of regime change through maximum pressure. Is the U.S. aiming to topple the Cuban government without military intervention? The administration believes 2026 could be the final year of communist rule in Cuba, achieved without deploying U.S. armed forces.
“I don’t think we need (to take) any action,” Trump stated on Jan. 4, adding: “Cuba looks like it’s ready to fall.”
Cuba’s Friend With Benefits
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Trump’s assessment may be on target. Maduro’s capture effectively removes Cuba’s closest ally, a relationship forged decades ago.
Maduro’s predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chávez, was an avowed admirer of Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro.
After assuming power in 1999, Chávez’s government began supplying oil to Cuba on favorable terms in exchange for doctors and, eventually, the training of Venezuela’s security forces. It was no coincidence that 32 of the security officers killed defending Maduro from approaching American forces were Cuban.
Maduro continued this support after succeeding Chávez in 2013. In 2022, a member of the Venezuelan opposition claimed that Caracas contributed US$60 billion to the Cuban economy between 2002 and 2022.
Adalberto Roque/AFP via Getty Images
However, Venezuela’s economic woes, beginning in the early 2010s with a severe economic crisis fueled by economic mismanagement, reliance on petroleum, and U.S. sanctions, made that support unsustainable.
Venezuela’s aid to Cuba diminished significantly by 2016. Despite this, Maduro’s government continued to secretly supply Cuba with oil, evading U.S. sanctions, though in amounts far below Cuba’s needs.
Hard Times in Cuba
Venezuela’s economic decline and U.S. pressure have brought Cubans hardship not seen since the “special period” of the 1990s, triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Since 2020, Cuba’s GDP has shrunk by 11%, and the Cuban peso has continued to fall.
Cubans now face unreliable electricity and water access. Mosquito-borne illnesses are increasingly rampant due to the government’s inability to afford pesticides.
The medical system offers only rudimentary care, with hospitals lacking essential medicines.
Meanwhile, industrial and agricultural production have declined, as have food imports.
Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images
While widespread famine hasn’t materialized, food insecurity is rising, with most Cubans limiting their diets and skipping meals. Street crime has also increased on Cuba’s once-safe streets.
The U.S. administration has signaled its intent to further pressure Cuba’s economy and provoke regime change since Maduro’s capture. For example, the U.S. has stated it will no longer allow Venezuela to supply oil to Cuba.
The administration apparently hopes that without oil, the Cuban government will collapse. Alternatively, Trump may believe Cubans will overthrow their communist leaders without U.S. intervention.
A Regime Without Popular Support
However, Cuba’s communists have weathered crises for over 60 years. Yet, evidence suggests declining support for the regime as the economy worsens.
Since 2020, more than 1 million Cubans have left the country, primarily for the U.S. and Spanish-speaking nations. A Cuban colleague with access to government research estimates the number is closer to 2 million.
Those who remain are equally dissatisfied.
A 2024 public opinion poll revealed that an overwhelming majority of Cubans expressed profound dissatisfaction with the Cuban Communist Party and President Miguel Díaz-Canel.
Cubans have also protested. In July 2021, protests erupted across Cuba, demanding greater freedom and a better standard of living. The government quickly arrested protesters and sentenced them to long prison terms.
Sporadic protests continue, often erupting quickly and drawing harsh repression. The San Isidro movement, formed in 2018 to protest restrictions on artistic expression, enjoys strong support among younger Cubans.
Changing Attitudes Toward America
As Cubans turn against their government, they are becoming more receptive to the U.S.
During my first visit in 1996, Cubans blamed the U.S. embargo for the hardships during the Special Period.
However, in the past decade, I’ve heard Cubans – particularly those under 50 – express more anger toward their government than the U.S. embargo.
Yamil Lage/AFP via Getty Images
Cubans still want the U.S. embargo lifted, but they no longer accept their government’s attempts to blame Washington for Cuba’s problems.
The large-scale emigration of Cubans, coupled with increased internet access allowing them to read foreign news, has shifted the narrative.
Since Maduro’s capture, conversations with Cuban friends reveal a willingness to accept U.S. intervention, provided it removes the current regime.
One friend said: “If the Yankees showed up today, most of us would probably greet them as liberators.”
While this is a small sample, the sentiment from Cubans in both the private and public sectors doesn’t bode well for the Castro regime.
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