July begins, and Kommersant offers an economic forecast for the month. Experts answer questions about what will happen to the dollar against the ruble, how world oil prices will change, what inflation will turn out to be, and how the dollar and euro will behave in the world currency market.
1. What will the dollar / ruble exchange rate be?
2. What will inflation be?
3. What will be the oil prices?
4. What will be the rate of the euro against the dollar?
Yaroslav Kabakov, Strategy Director of the Finam Group of Companies:
Photo: Vladimir Trefilov / RIA Novosti
1. Strengthening ruble in July it is insignificant, but it will continue, and it is highly probable that the rate will go below 72 rubles. for the dollar. Most likely, it will fluctuate in the corridor of 71.5–72.5 rubles. The general conjuncture of growth in the commodity markets continues, the inflow of foreign exchange earnings will be significant, plus the desire to curb the growth of inflation. The dynamics of the ruble exchange rate is determined by the interventions of the Ministry of Finance, which are carried out according to the budgetary rule, and in this regard, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation may make some concessions in strengthening the ruble, especially on the eve of the elections to the State Duma. A slight change in the discount rate is also possible.
2. I expect a slight slowdown inflation – at least up to 0.5%, and maybe even better, but it will be more accurate to say only when the June inflation is announced. The slowdown in growth rates, of course, will be affected by the falling prices for fruits and vegetables, as well as the decline in non-food inflation due to the strengthening of the ruble that took place in the last month. In addition, significant increases in tariffs are not expected, so there are no factors influencing the growth of inflation rates.
3. We are looking forward to a wonderful event – the meeting of the OPEC countries. But, in my opinion, no significant changes are expected, and the prices for oil following the meeting, they may show significant volatility during July in the corridor of $ 70-75 per barrel of Brent.
4. It is highly likely that everything will remain in the current corridor of $ 1.18-1.21 euros… There are no significant events that would affect the movement in one direction or another. Some strengthening of the dollar may occur, but very little.
Oleg Sysuev, President, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of Alfa-Bank:
Photo: Yuri Strelets, Kommersant
1. Obviously, there will be no traumatic or optimistic movement. I assume that the rate will remain within the July values ​​of 71-73 ruble per dollar, plus or minus 2-3%.
2. By inflation the seasonal factor will work when there will be a lot of products entering the market. In Russia, this is always felt noticeably on agricultural products. People will not spend much in the markets or in stores, so inflation will be moderate. So my forecast for inflation in July is 0.5%.
3. I think that oil will grow. This is due to the revival of the economy in all countries, since they, unlike us, are successfully fighting the pandemic. To what values ​​it is difficult to say, but clearly higher than $ 70 per barrel.
4. We are observing a trend of the dollar appreciating in relation to euros… But nothing noticeable will happen in this regard. I think that the EU countries will nevertheless open up, and I expect a recovery in the ratio of the euro to the dollar in the values ​​of 1.20.
Igor Shibanov, financial markets analyst at Sberbank First:
Photo: from the personal archive of Igor Shibanov
1. By mid-July ruble will return to the area of ​​73.5 rubles / $, and by autumn it will move even higher – to 76 rubles. Ruble optimists expect that from the current level of about 72.3 rubles. a new one will be tested for the dollar – in the region of 71.6 rubles, as well as for the active participation of non-residents who want to make money on the difference in interest rates in the Russian Federation and abroad (carry trade). However, the tax period in June is over. The ruble has no special preferences for continued growth. Volatility in global financial markets and geopolitical risks have not disappeared anywhere. It is unlikely that the regulator will allow the growth of the ruble, which is unfavorable for the economy. The border is 71.0 rubles. may be impenetrable.
2.Considering the summer calm, it is possible to predict the July inflation at 0.2–0.3% with zeroing in August. When the Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the rate to 5.5% in June, it was a reaction to the current annual inflation rate, which is already about 6.2%, and a desire to curb price increases, which turned out to be higher than forecast. The next meeting is scheduled for July 23, and again the Central Bank will raise the rate. The inflationary expectations of the population – to buy today, not tomorrow – have grown by 11%. The increase in the Central Bank rate will lead to an increase in interest rates on OFZ and short-term loans.
3. Expect a drop in prices for oil not worth it. July will hold $ 74 per barrel of Brent and $ 72 per barrel of WTI. The main drivers of growth remain: continued inflationary rallies in oil-consuming countries, increased demand along with economic growth, not too much announced increase in production by OPEC – by only 500 thousand barrels per day.
4. In general, July stability is expected. The sideways trend will be in the range of $ 1.1870-1.2050 per euros… June brought disappointment to this pair of currencies. Three support levels – 1.2160, 1.2100 and 1.1920 – were broken one after the other. The market immediately remembered quotes at 1.1700 or so. But the support at 1.1860 withstood the pressure, and now stands in the range of 1.1910-1.1930. Until July 12, the euro-dollar pair will continue to show weakness and will try to break through 1.1900 and 1.1880 several times. But on July 14-15, rehabilitation will begin. The euro will move to 1.198-1.1990, and by the end of the month it will decide to storm the resistances of 1.2000 and 1.2030 (50 Fibo).
Alexander Potavin, Chief Analyst at Skywind Finance:
1. In July the course ruble will continue to strengthen, albeit in a very restrained manner. The goal of strengthening the ruble could be expected to reach the level of 71 rubles. for the dollar. However, according to statistics, July and August are traditionally one of the weakest months for our currency, so I don’t think that the dollar will stay at such low levels for a long time. A new wave of ruble depreciation will not be long in coming.
2. Inflation in July it will be about 0.5%. But since August, prices for agricultural products have traditionally been decreasing, so in the future inflation in the Russian Federation may stop growth and even show a decrease in monthly dynamics. At the same time, the last June survey recorded a worsening inflationary picture in the perception of the population. The median estimate of inflation expected over the next 12 months was 11.9% versus 11.3% in May. This is the highest value since February 2017. This could be attributed to the growth of raw materials in world markets, but the most important factor here is the boom in consumer lending in Russia. The higher inflationary expectations of the population and the longer they are at these levels, the more difficult it will be to bring them back. In this regard, the Bank of Russia is considering the possibility of raising the key rate. This measure should help curb inflationary risks in Russia. If in June the annual rate of price growth was about 6.2% y / y, then in July it may reach 6.3% y / y.
3. On the market oil there is now a deficit of 1.1 million barrels. Theoretically, it could be occupied by the volumes of raw materials from Iran. No one expects quick success there. The most important factor will be the next OPEC + meeting. The cartel is expected to report an increase in oil production from August. This may create pressure on quotes in the second half of July. Judging by the long-term chart, the Brent price tag will become unstable – in the region of $ 77-80 / barrel. In August, the oil deficit, according to OPEC, may rise to 1.5 million barrels. And when the deficit grows, the seller of the product can draw almost any price tag.
4. At the end of June, the euro-dollar pair dropped to the bottom of its two-year uptrend. Positions euros undermined the last meeting of the FRS, which discussed the prospects for tightening monetary policy in the United States. On the contrary, the ECB leadership is not yet eager to take such steps in the eurozone. This imbalance caused a significant weakening of the euro against the dollar from the level of 1.2150 to 1.1900. So far, there is no reason to expect some kind of change in sentiment in the ECB, which means that the dynamics in July will continue to depend on the situation in the United States. Strong statistics on the American labor market may return the rate to the lows of the month (1.1840), and if this level does not hold, then the euro-dollar pair risks falling to the lows of the year – around 1.1700.
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