The disputes between politicians in Germany and the European Union about whether it is worth prohibiting the sale of passenger cars with internal combustion engines (ICE) in 2030 or wait until 2035 for the sake of climate protection, may soon lose all meaning, since by that time the issue will be resolved by itself … This is evidenced by the rapid, even rapid changes taking place in the German automotive market – the largest in Europe.
The share of cars with electric motors is approaching half
So, in September, a significant event took place on it: for the first time, more all-electric vehicles (Battery Electric Vehicle, BEV) were purchased in Germany than diesel ones. According to the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA), the share of electric vehicles in new passenger car sales rose to 17.1%, while the share of cars with diesel engines fell to 15.9%.
Diesel cars with their harmful exhaust emissions are getting less and less buyers in Germany
Back in August, the ratio was 17.7% to 14.9% in favor of diesels. And five years ago, in 2016, they accounted for almost half of the cars sold in Germany (46%). This was facilitated by tax incentives and a wide range of models: the German car industry has been intensively developing diesel technology for many years.
However, when trying to promote them to the US market, Volkswagen and other German car manufacturers resorted to fraud, which led to a “diesel scandal” and actually put an end to this type of internal combustion engine. Now, as can be seen from the KBA statistics, he is losing ground faster and faster, even in his homeland, in Germany.
At the same time, cars with gasoline engines are losing their previous market share, albeit at a slower rate. As a result, both types of internal combustion engines accounted for only 51.8% of sales in September, while the share of cars with electric engines – both BEVs and various types of hybrids – increased to 47.6%. Thus, this share is already close to half, while at the end of 2020 it accounted for only a quarter of the market. This, of course, is largely due to generous government and producer subsidies.
Plug-in hybrids are losing out to all-electric cars
At the same time, significant changes are taking place in the segment of electric vehicles itself. It can be divided into three main parts: hybrids that charge the battery while driving or braking, plug-in hybrids PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle), which are recharged from the mains cable, and all-electric BEVs.
Prague, November 2019.4th generation Skoda Octavia will be the first and last with a hybrid engine
The German market is still dominated by hybrids of different species. Their total share, including PHEVs, accounted for 30.5% of all new passenger car sales in Germany in September and is increasingly approaching the share of gasoline vehicles (35.9%). At the same time, the growth in demand specifically for plug-in hybrids, which just a few years ago was considered the most convenient transition form for drivers from cars with internal combustion engines to electric vehicles, is significantly slowing down.
If at the end of 2020 PHEVs were still ahead of BEVs in terms of sales and market share, then by the end of the first half of 2021, electric vehicles took the lead, and in September they achieved a 17.1% share in the German market, as already noted, while plug-in -hybrids, it was only 11.6%.
The economic newspaper Handelsblatt sees this as an obvious trend: “Plug-in hybrids are becoming a dead-end model, electric vehicles have established themselves in the market faster than expected.” The publication cites statements from top managers of Daimler, Volkswagen and Skoda that these car manufacturers are not going to develop new car models that combine internal combustion engines and an electric motor. The newspaper warns owners of such cars and potential buyers that the prices of used plug-in hybrids will fall dramatically in the coming years.
Tesla and Polestar grow fast, but German carmakers lead
With the growing importance of electric vehicles, some foreign car manufacturers have begun to play a more prominent role in the German market. So, month after month, the American company Tesla is strengthening its still modest position in Germany (1.3% of all sales), which intends to begin large-scale production at the Grunheide plant near Berlin at the latest at the beginning of next year. From January to September 2021, Tesla’s electric vehicle sales increased by 131% year-on-year, up 158% in September. The Tesla Model 3 became Germany’s best-selling mid-range car this month, beating gasoline-powered competitors.
Munich, September 2021. Polestar presentation at the IAA International Motor Show
In nine months, sales of Polestar have grown by 292%, but from an extremely low level. This brand of electric vehicles, new to the German market, belongs to a joint venture of the same name between the Swedish company Volvo and the Chinese company Geely. For example, sales of electric vehicles of the Japanese company Suzuki are growing relatively quickly, but also from a low level.
However, the leading positions in the rapidly growing segment of cars with electric motors are firmly held by the traditional leaders of the German market. Thus, among BEV electric vehicles, the most popular in recent months were VW ID.3 and VW Up, among PHEV plug-in hybrids – Mercedes GLK and Mercedes GLC, among hybrids – BMW 3 and Audi A6, according to the Federal Motor Transport Agency.
It should be borne in mind that the growth in sales in the segment of electric vehicles is taking place against the background of a significant contraction of the German automotive market as a whole. At the end of 2021, sales of new cars in Germany may decrease by a quarter or even by a third compared to last year, including due to an increasingly acute shortage of microchips.
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